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2024 Battleground Poll: Biden vs. Trump rematch


vcczar
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2024 Battleground Poll: Biden vs. Trump rematch  

11 members have voted

  1. 1. If the 2024 election is between Biden and Trump, which battleground states will flip?

  2. 2. Who would be the stronger Democratic nominee for 2024?

  3. 3. Who would be the stronger Republican nominee for 2024?

    • Trump
      0
    • DeSantis
    • Hawley
      0


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1 minute ago, Patine said:

Please, I beg of you! Not the rematch of the Dotards! The scenario for 2024 that would most show Americans had learned NOTHING in the 8 years! 🤢

It was also PoliticalPundit's very favourite and most cherished scenario for 2024...

I made this poll because currently it is assumed they'll be the nominees of both parties. I think the GOP is suicidal to pick Trump again. I think Democrats are kind of forced to stick with Biden if he runs. We don't have many instances in which the incumbent party wins when the incumbent doesn't run for a 2nd term (excluding deaths):

Incumbent Presidents that didn't run for a 2nd term or were denied renomination (excluding deaths):

  • James K Polk -- his party lost the next election
  • Millard Fillmore -- was not renominated, was filling in for Taylor's term, his party lost the next election
  • Franklin Pierce -- was not renominated, but his party won the next election thanks to the collapse of the Whig Party and Republicans not yet fully organized.
  • James Buchanan -- opted not to run, his party split in two, but Republicans still would have beat Democrats had they unified.
  • Andrew Johnson -- was not renominated....technically a Democrat, despite being on the National Union ticket in 1864---Republicans won the next election
  • Rutherford B Hayes -- promised to serve one term...his party did win the next election in a nailbiter
  • Chester A Arthur -- was not renominated...party lost to Democrats
  • Lyndon B Johnson -- changed his mind about running for reelection; Republicans win in November

Biden would be the first president since LBJ not go through with a reelection attempt. Some might not want to count that since he didn't opt out until after the primaries started. If so, Biden would be the first since Arthur. He didn't serve a full term. Therefore, some might say he would be the first since Hayes. 

If Biden doesn't run, Kamala Harris would have the inside track to win nomination. I think she would preform poorly compared to Biden. There's an outside chance that Buttigieg, Booker, AOC, or Ossof or Whitmer might have a shot. The thing with Democrats is their non-elderly ambitious politicians that can generate donors and support and media attention (all necessary, sadly, in the 21st century) are mostly establishment. The main progressives--Sanders and Warren--are too old. The others are probably too young--AOC, for instance--or two polarizing. I think Democrats do best when they run someone that doesn't get the opposition out to vote. 

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7 minutes ago, Patine said:

The thing about Biden is that, from everything I could gather from his supporters and those voting for him (including on this and the 270soft forum) he was not nominated with any expectations that he would realistically be a stellar or high-quality President, or truly up to addressing the real issues that were facing the nation in the longer term - he was nominated for being the most electable and likely to beat Trump. Period, full stop. This fact, his age, and certain other factors, would make him more counter-intuitive to re-nominate than many predecessors. Plus, if Trump is re-nominated, he'll be at a much greater disadvantage than he was as an incumbent, and nominating someone with an eye to longer-term potential would be more reasonable. Does this make sense?

I just think that trading Biden for Harris weakens the chances of reelection. If Trump is the nominee, I don't want to take any chances. If DeSantis it the nominee (more of a threat to win), I don't want to take chances. If Harris and Biden bows out, and the field is open, then I think that would be more exciting but I think it also allows a greater chance of DeSantis winning, although not necessarily Trump. You don't live here, so you don't really have PTSD from the Trump era. We do. We'd rather play it safe than take a risk at perfection if that risk allows for a greater chance for Trump. If the other party was reasonable and nominated reasonable candidates, then I'd be willing to take risks. 

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