vcczar Posted November 5 Share Posted November 5 new poll Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rezi Posted November 6 Share Posted November 6 No because the like top 5 most likely non-Biden candidates are all worse than him lmfao 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10centjimmy Posted November 6 Share Posted November 6 12 minutes ago, Rezi said: No because the like top 5 most likely non-Biden candidates are all worse than him lmfao What? You don't like ... *checks notes* Dean Phillips? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vcczar Posted November 6 Author Share Posted November 6 At some point Biden's low polls will erase his incumbency bonus. That said, I don't know who replaces him. I know there's a lot of people I'd be happy with, but I'm trying to think of people that can win AZ and GA again. The safest pick, but who won't win those states, is Gretchen Whitmer. I think she can at least win MI, PA, and WI and that's really all that matters. But she's Biden campaign co-chair, so she won't do that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vcczar Posted November 6 Author Share Posted November 6 I should also state that I'll soon be tracking trends so I can accurately predict the president election again. Unlike most pollsters, I got the map 99.9% accurately. The only place I missed was ME-2 and that's mainly because polling is so infrequent in those place. What I'll do for 2024 is not make predictions on ME-2 and that place in NE. I'll just do the state at-large, unless we get weekly polls in those places. This will be harder to predict because of RFK Jr and West in the race, but I'll figure something out. As it currently stands, Biden could lose GA, AZ, NV, MI, PA, WI, with an outside chance of VA. So Biden's certainly on the defensive. Being on the defensive, there's less of a chance of the GOP losing FL and NC at this point. The two crises states are OH and MN. If either of those are showing wins for the party that didn't win them in 2020, then that party could be facing a lot of issues. Another factor in the future is Speaker Johnson who seems much more vocal and provocative than any GOP Speaker since Gingrich. He might actually help Dem turnout. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShortKing Posted November 6 Share Posted November 6 1 hour ago, vcczar said: Another factor in the future is Speaker Johnson who seems much more vocal and provocative than any GOP Speaker since Gingrich. He might actually help Dem turnout. I get this thinking on paper, but I just can't imagine there's a significant number of people who were not planning to turn out for a presidential election with Trump on the ballot but will now that Mike Johnson is Speaker 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShortKing Posted November 6 Share Posted November 6 My thing about Biden is I don't even really hate him, but the man is 81 years old. He's probably fit for office today, but the idea that he will be up to the job of Commander in Chief from now to January of 2029 is not serious. He should step down for that reason alone, but he can't because his most likely successor is Kamala who polls as bad or worse than him in most surveys (though notably, she slightly outperformed him in the latest NYT/Siena poll). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vcczar Posted November 6 Author Share Posted November 6 49 minutes ago, ShortKing said: My thing about Biden is I don't even really hate him, but the man is 81 years old. He's probably fit for office today, but the idea that he will be up to the job of Commander in Chief from now to January of 2029 is not serious. He should step down for that reason alone, but he can't because his most likely successor is Kamala who polls as bad or worse than him in most surveys (though notably, she slightly outperformed him in the latest NYT/Siena poll). Yeah it’s weird. 65% of people want Biden to drop out because of age. Biden massively leads all Democrats, often having 50% against the field. Then Harris leads when Biden is not in the picture, although not with 50%. So Democrats want Biden to go, but they don’t want anyone else. I think the best scenario—and they must do this quickly if they do this at all—is to have both Biden and Harris take themselves out. Have Biden announce he won’t run. Have Harris seem uncommitted but secretly ask others to jump in the race. If by January, a non-Harris is gaining steam, she stays out. If not, she jumps in. But I’m for Biden staying in if we aren’t getting someone polling strongly as an alternate. I think if Biden wins re-election we will have Pres Kamala Harris by 2027. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vcczar Posted November 6 Author Share Posted November 6 Here’s how Biden has improves his favorables. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DakotaHale Posted November 6 Share Posted November 6 3 hours ago, vcczar said: I should also state that I'll soon be tracking trends so I can accurately predict the president election again. Unlike most pollsters, I got the map 99.9% accurately. The only place I missed was ME-2 and that's mainly because polling is so infrequent in those place. What I'll do for 2024 is not make predictions on ME-2 and that place in NE. I'll just do the state at-large, unless we get weekly polls in those places. This will be harder to predict because of RFK Jr and West in the race, but I'll figure something out. As it currently stands, Biden could lose GA, AZ, NV, MI, PA, WI, with an outside chance of VA. So Biden's certainly on the defensive. Being on the defensive, there's less of a chance of the GOP losing FL and NC at this point. The two crises states are OH and MN. If either of those are showing wins for the party that didn't win them in 2020, then that party could be facing a lot of issues. Another factor in the future is Speaker Johnson who seems much more vocal and provocative than any GOP Speaker since Gingrich. He might actually help Dem turnout. Kanye isn't running I don't believe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vcczar Posted November 6 Author Share Posted November 6 25 minutes ago, DakotaHale said: Kanye isn't running I don't believe Cornel West Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pius XIII Posted November 6 Share Posted November 6 1 hour ago, vcczar said: Here’s how Biden has improves his favorables. I mean, I think Trump would look better if he shaved the mop on his head, grew a beard and ditched the tan. He almost looks presidential. In all seriousness, I wrote in Mattis in the last election and will consider voting third party this time. Both candidates are far past their prime. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DakotaHale Posted November 6 Share Posted November 6 19 minutes ago, vcczar said: Cornel West I wouldn't consider him, he's irrelevant (2024 speaking) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vcczar Posted November 6 Author Share Posted November 6 15 minutes ago, Pius XIII said: I mean, I think Trump would look better if he shaved the mop on his head, grew a beard and ditched the tan. He almost looks presidential. In all seriousness, I wrote in Mattis in the last election and will consider voting third party this time. Both candidates are far past their prime. He looks like a bald Ted Cruz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blood Posted November 6 Share Posted November 6 3 hours ago, DakotaHale said: Kanye isn't running I don't believe You're telling me the man who defended Adolf Hitler on Alex Jones and hung out with Nick Fuentes for a week wasn't a serious presidential candidate with the capacity to run a campaign? In shock rn. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pilight Posted November 9 Share Posted November 9 He shouldn't have run four years ago and the DNC shouldn't have rigged things so that he'd be the candidate 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rezi Posted November 9 Share Posted November 9 28 minutes ago, pilight said: He shouldn't have run four years ago and the DNC shouldn't have rigged things so that he'd be the candidate mfw the DNC rigs things (people voted) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pringles Posted November 9 Share Posted November 9 1 hour ago, Rezi said: mfw the DNC rigs things (people voted) Things are rigged when Black Americans turn out in a record fashion to fall behind their preferred candidate. A shame the white libs and progressives don't matter... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rezi Posted November 9 Share Posted November 9 1 hour ago, Pringles said: Things are rigged when Black Americans turn out in a record fashion to fall behind their preferred candidate. A shame the white libs and progressives don't matter... mfw making Briahna Joy Gray my press secretary doesn't help win voters Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pilight Posted November 10 Share Posted November 10 6 hours ago, Pringles said: Things are rigged when Black Americans turn out in a record fashion to fall behind their preferred candidate. A shame the white libs and progressives don't matter... I have a hard time believing black voters overwhelmingly preferred Biden to the actual black candidates in the race 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShortKing Posted November 10 Share Posted November 10 4 minutes ago, pilight said: I have a hard time believing black voters overwhelmingly preferred Biden to the actual black candidates in the race You don't have to believe it, the black candidates dropped out before Iowa, and so black voters just had to pick Biden over Bernie and Warren 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DakotaHale Posted November 10 Share Posted November 10 6 hours ago, Pringles said: Things are rigged when Black Americans turn out in a record fashion to fall behind their preferred candidate. A shame the white libs and progressives don't matter... Shoutout to black Americans for routinely voting against socialists in the Democratic party. Huge W. Nina Turner and Bernie can sugma. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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