vcczar Posted November 7 Share Posted November 7 Here's how I see the election if it were held today: This is with RFK Jr taking 15-25% of the PV, as he's showing in recent polls. Otherwise, I think NV goes for Biden. For whatever reason, the polls are showing RFK taking from Biden and Trump equally, except in NV, AZ, and GA where Biden loses support when RFK is included in the same poll. This just means anti-Trumpers are going to RFK as an alternative, which is bad. For whatever reason, WI, MI, and PA is showing very little different if RFK is in or out of the poll. I've knocked MN down a bit because I think RFK will make that more competitive for Trump, and the same with VA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVProgressive Posted November 7 Share Posted November 7 This is my current prediction, but i can imagine an election where either party wins over 300+ Electoral Votes. I don't look at polls, so this is more so based off of my intuition. This also assumes the election is between Biden, Trump, and Kennedy, which it probably will be. Also, I didn't bother to work out the margins because honestly I don't care about margins in actual elections, and I certainly don't care about them in predictions. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DakotaHale Posted November 8 Share Posted November 8 RFK will take 70% of votes from Trumpers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vcczar Posted November 8 Author Share Posted November 8 29 minutes ago, DakotaHale said: RFK will take 70% of votes from Trumpers I hope you are right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pilight Posted November 9 Share Posted November 9 RFK won't pull enough votes to matter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vcczar Posted November 9 Author Share Posted November 9 2 hours ago, pilight said: RFK won't pull enough votes to matter He’s polling over 20% right now… Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cenzonico Posted November 9 Share Posted November 9 1 minute ago, vcczar said: He’s polling over 20% right now… 1. It's barely less than a year from election day 2. Third party candidate Ross Perot once lead the pack, Gary Johnson polled double digits at times, "Deez Nuts" even had high poll numbers at some point and he was 15! Its still early to say if RFK Jr. will have an actual affect on the race yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vcczar Posted November 9 Author Share Posted November 9 29 minutes ago, Cenzonico said: 1. It's barely less than a year from election day 2. Third party candidate Ross Perot once lead the pack, Gary Johnson polled double digits at times, "Deez Nuts" even had high poll numbers at some point and he was 15! Its still early to say if RFK Jr. will have an actual affect on the race yet. Perot hurt himself by dropping out of the race when he was polling like 30%. RFK Jr is also generating more media and ads than Johnson ever was. I’ve never seen a Johnson ad or sign. I’ve already seen RFK Jr ads and RFK Jr signs (only two so far). I don’t see RFK Jr sinking below 4%. Even at 2% he could throw a battleground state to one of the other candidates, depending on whose voters he’s taking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pilight Posted November 9 Share Posted November 9 Smaller party candidates often poll well this far out. Four years ago at this time people were talking about what impact Kanye West would have on the race. The answer, of course, was none at all. He got fewer votes than Gloria La Riva, the Socialist Party candidate. RFK will do better than that but he'll never get 4% on election day. He'll probably pull less than 1%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bushwa777 Posted November 9 Share Posted November 9 Joe Machan just announced he was not running for Senate in 2024 and implied he is going to tour the country and see what people are thinking. He could throw himself into the race as a 3rd party and take even more votes from the DEMS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10centjimmy Posted November 9 Share Posted November 9 (edited) 13 minutes ago, Bushwa777 said: Joe Machan just announced he was not running for Senate in 2024 and implied he is going to tour the country and see what people are thinking. He could throw himself into the race as a 3rd party and take even more votes from the DEMS Hard to say, he's not well liked by Dems looking to pick a non Biden candidate. He's also 70+ years old and old age is where most of the anti-Biden opinions come from. Maybe he takes from diehard centrist Republicans and independents. But like comments above, we're a year out and it's unlikely we'd see much impact on battlegrounds. Maybe he pulls enough never-trump votes out of Utah to throw it to Biden. Edited November 9 by 10centjimmy 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vcczar Posted November 10 Author Share Posted November 10 38 minutes ago, Bushwa777 said: Joe Machan just announced he was not running for Senate in 2024 and implied he is going to tour the country and see what people are thinking. He could throw himself into the race as a 3rd party and take even more votes from the DEMS I'm like 95% sure he doesn't run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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