vcczar Posted November 10 Share Posted November 10 One of my favorite election prediction analysts runs Race to the WH. I don't think there's anyone else who overanalyzing polls and such. He's been more accurate than Nate Silver, Rachel Bitecofer, and the others. Here's what he's predicting at the moment: Biden and Trump will be the nominees Biden will win the PV 44.2% to 44.1%--razor thin (for the last few weeks, Trump had been winning) with 11.6% unsure. This is without 3rd parties. A race with Biden, Trump, RFK JR, and Cornel West is showing a Trump PV victory. Trump 39%, Biden 37%, RFK Jr 14%, West 4%. DeSantis would beat Biden in the PV by 1% head-to-head, where as stated Biden would narrowly beat Trump. Haley would crush Biden with almost a 4% PV advantage Trump would crush Kamala Harris by about 4%, which probably explains why Biden can't drop out. Ramaswamy performs poorly against Biden Trump leads Biden in AZ by almost 3% Trump leads Biden in FL by 6% Trump leads Biden in GA by 4% Trump and Biden are almost exactly tied in MI Biden leads Trump in MN by 4% Trump leads Biden in NV by 2.5% Trump lead Biden in NC by 5% Trump leads Biden in PA by half a percent. Trump leads Biden in TX by 8% Biden leads Trump in VA by 3% Biden leads Trump in WI by over 2% Strangely Biden leads DeSantis in GA. Overall, DeSantis does better nationally against Biden in the PV than Trump does, but DeSantis does worse in battleground states. Harris loses every true battleground state (those in which Biden isn't polling more than 10%+) against Trump Cornel West is polling high in MT (7%), OH (9%), VA (7%). Haley crushes Biden in PA and wins all the major battleground states. She's the clear strongest GOP nominee for a general election. RFK Jr polls high in AZ (20%), MI (20%), WI (21%). RFK Jr overall doesn't seem to be helping Biden. In a 4-way race with RFK Jr and Cornel West included, Trump gets clear victories in GA Polls that ask ("If Trump is convicted") show Biden defeating Trump in AZ (+3), GA (+9), MI (+16), NV (+9), PA (+2), WI (+13). I think Democrats are banking on Trump's conviction. This shows clearly that there are many who support Trump now but will likely not support a convict for president. Right now, despite Biden narrowly winning the PV, Trump is showing a 301-235 EC victory. This excludes ME-2 and NE-2 from the score. GOP is predicted to flip MT and WV. Democrats will not have any flips, but they'll hold OH and AZ. GOP will hold the house, but they'll have only like a 2 seat advantage. If this prediction holds, the GOP will have a trifecta--Pres, Sen, House (also the Supreme Courts). @Bushwa777 @ConservativeElector2 will be happy to know this, although about the rest of this forum will be horrified. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bushwa777 Posted November 10 Share Posted November 10 11 minutes ago, vcczar said: One of my favorite election prediction analysts runs Race to the WH. I don't think there's anyone else who overanalyzing polls and such. He's been more accurate than Nate Silver, Rachel Bitecofer, and the others. Here's what he's predicting at the moment: Biden and Trump will be the nominees Biden will win the PV 44.2% to 44.1%--razor thin (for the last few weeks, Trump had been winning) with 11.6% unsure. This is without 3rd parties. A race with Biden, Trump, RFK JR, and Cornel West is showing a Trump PV victory. Trump 39%, Biden 37%, RFK Jr 14%, West 4%. DeSantis would beat Biden in the PV by 1% head-to-head, where as stated Biden would narrowly beat Trump. Haley would crush Biden with almost a 4% PV advantage Trump would crush Kamala Harris by about 4%, which probably explains why Biden can't drop out. Ramaswamy performs poorly against Biden Trump leads Biden in AZ by almost 3% Trump leads Biden in FL by 6% Trump leads Biden in GA by 4% Trump and Biden are almost exactly tied in MI Biden leads Trump in MN by 4% Trump leads Biden in NV by 2.5% Trump lead Biden in NC by 5% Trump leads Biden in PA by half a percent. Trump leads Biden in TX by 8% Biden leads Trump in VA by 3% Biden leads Trump in WI by over 2% Strangely Biden leads DeSantis in GA. Overall, DeSantis does better nationally against Biden in the PV than Trump does, but DeSantis does worse in battleground states. Harris loses every true battleground state (those in which Biden isn't polling more than 10%+) against Trump Cornel West is polling high in MT (7%), OH (9%), VA (7%). Haley crushes Biden in PA and wins all the major battleground states. She's the clear strongest GOP nominee for a general election. RFK Jr polls high in AZ (20%), MI (20%), WI (21%). RFK Jr overall doesn't seem to be helping Biden. In a 4-way race with RFK Jr and Cornel West included, Trump gets clear victories in GA Polls that ask ("If Trump is convicted") show Biden defeating Trump in AZ (+3), GA (+9), MI (+16), NV (+9), PA (+2), WI (+13). I think Democrats are banking on Trump's conviction. This shows clearly that there are many who support Trump now but will likely not support a convict for president. Right now, despite Biden narrowly winning the PV, Trump is showing a 301-235 EC victory. This excludes ME-2 and NE-2 from the score. GOP is predicted to flip MT and WV. Democrats will not have any flips, but they'll hold OH and AZ. GOP will hold the house, but they'll have only like a 2 seat advantage. If this prediction holds, the GOP will have a trifecta--Pres, Sen, House (also the Supreme Courts). @Bushwa777 @ConservativeElector2 will be happy to know this, although about the rest of this forum will be horrified. Hey i should not be singled out for holding different opinions then most of this forum Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vcczar Posted November 10 Author Share Posted November 10 8 minutes ago, Bushwa777 said: Hey i should not be singled out for holding different opinions then most of this forum I'm tagging you because I thought you and CE2 would like this analysis, and I wanted to make sure you all saw it. That's what tagging is for. We already know you hold different views from 95% of us on here, so tagging you isn't providing any new information. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bushwa777 Posted November 10 Share Posted November 10 3 minutes ago, vcczar said: I'm tagging you because I thought you and CE2 would like this analysis, and I wanted to make sure you all saw it. That's what tagging is for. We already know you hold different views from 95% of us on here, so tagging you isn't providing any new information. But in the past you told me it was 60 -40 but now it is 95-5? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vcczar Posted November 10 Author Share Posted November 10 1 minute ago, Bushwa777 said: But in the past you told me it was 60 -40 but now it is 95-5? It’s 60-40 Dem-leaning to Rep-leaning but this forum is only like 5% MAGA. I define MAGA as Republicans who still support Trump over Biden or 3rd party despite the Jan 6th insurrection, two impeachments, and 91 felony/criminal counts. Most of the GOPers on this forum are NeverTrumpers, I believe. I think you, CE2, JViking, and DakotaHale are the only Trump supporters. The rest want someone like Haley over Biden, but would reluctantly support Biden over Trump, since the latter has integrity issues worse than Nixon. Anyway, that’s why I’m saying 95-5% regarding this information. Maybe that 5% is higher. There could be some quiet Trump people on here. There’s some conservative on here whose preferences I don’t know. Just know you’re in a strong minority here, but I’m okay with that. My best friend is a Trump supporter (alas). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bushwa777 Posted November 10 Share Posted November 10 I am not a strong Trump Supporter. If I can get my druthers I would vote for DeSantes, Scott, or Haley. If Trump wins however i will either support my party or go liberaterian depending 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.