vcczar Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 Let's say pundits find it impossible to predict the EC because of high-volatile 3rd party turnout. Let's assume Manchin jumps in too. Let's say the polls show the following polling range, w/ 3rd party strength seemingly coming stronger with each new poll in the last two weeks: Biden-D w/ 25-37% Trump-R w/ 25-37% RFK Jr - I w/ 15-33% C West - I w/ 4-8% Manchin - NL - w/ 4-8% Stein - G - w/ 1 to 2% Mapstead - L w/ 1 to 2% Who do you think wins AZ, GA, FL, TX, NC, WI, PA, MI, VA, NV? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DakotaHale Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 I guarantee you that less than 8% of America knows who Cornel West even is. No way he gets more than Stein even. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blood Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 5 minutes ago, DakotaHale said: I guarantee you that less than 8% of America knows who Cornel West even is. No way he gets more than Stein even. The issue is Cornel seems deeply unserious as a candidate (switching parties multiple times), and I have to imagine he'll run into ballot access troubles as an independent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vcczar Posted November 14 Author Share Posted November 14 8 minutes ago, DakotaHale said: I guarantee you that less than 8% of America knows who Cornel West even is. No way he gets more than Stein even. West is a famous professor, civil rights activist, and otherwise public intellectual. If you use google trends, he's been getting a lot more attention than Jill Stein. As someone that doesn't want Trump to win, I do hope you're right and that West gains no traction, even if ideologically I'd prefer him to Biden if West ever had a shot at 270 EVs. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVProgressive Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 (edited) Ok. I'm going to break this into four parts, again not using margins, and I made this pretty quick so it might not be as totally accurate as it could be... 1. Third Parties at their lowest, Duopoly at highest 2. Third Parties at highest, Duopoly at lowest 3. Somewhere in between 4. My own prediction (Joe Manchin will be Kennedy's VP imo, So I'm combining their polling %s, and I think a lot of the third parties will get lower than even their floor here) Edited November 14 by WVProgressive 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pringles Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 1 hour ago, vcczar said: As someone that doesn't want Trump to win, I do hope you're right and that West gains no traction, even if ideologically I'd prefer him to Biden if West ever had a shot at 270 EVs. Not sure I would want to ideologically prefer someone who thinks the Ukraine Invasion is a war-profiteering scheme perpetrated by the US and NATO, advocates the total abolition of NATO, and has made plenty of borderline anti-semitic remarks. This supposed intellectual embodies everything that is wrong with higher academia, and I refuse to treat him as such. 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pringles Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 1 hour ago, WVProgressive said: Ok. I'm going to break this into four parts, again not using margins, and I made this pretty quick so it might not be as totally accurate as it could be... 1. Third Parties at their lowest, Duopoly at highest 2. Third Parties at highest, Duopoly at lowest 3. Somewhere in between 4. My own prediction (Joe Manchin will be Kennedy's VP imo, So I'm combining their polling %s, and I think a lot of the third parties will get lower than even their floor here) I like how in the high third-party map you give the Deep South, including my state to Biden. If enough voter split occurred I do think that is something that could happen. African American voters consistently hand Democrats decent margins here, and if a major vote split occurs within the GOP, Biden is likely to benefit. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pius XIII Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 15 hours ago, vcczar said: Let's say pundits find it impossible to predict the EC because of high-volatile 3rd party turnout. Let's assume Manchin jumps in too. Let's say the polls show the following polling range, w/ 3rd party strength seemingly coming stronger with each new poll in the last two weeks: Biden-D w/ 25-37% Trump-R w/ 25-37% RFK Jr - I w/ 15-33% C West - I w/ 4-8% Manchin - NL - w/ 4-8% Stein - G - w/ 1 to 2% Mapstead - L w/ 1 to 2% Who do you think wins AZ, GA, FL, TX, NC, WI, PA, MI, VA, NV? I have never heard of Mapstead, and a quick google search reveals that the internet doesn’t know much about him either. Is he the frontrunner in the Libertarian primary or a placeholder for the eventual nominee? In my opinion, Manchin seems the least crazy/senile of the options here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vcczar Posted November 14 Author Share Posted November 14 4 minutes ago, Pius XIII said: I have never heard of Mapstead, and a quick google search reveals that the internet doesn’t know much about him either. Is he the frontrunner in the Libertarian primary or a placeholder for the eventual nominee? In my opinion, Manchin seems the least crazy/senile of the options here. All the Libertarian candidates are as obscure as hell. He's the one that appears to be the frontrunner or doing the most if you look at the wikipedia page for Libertarian Party 2024. There might be someone else that shows up, but they all seem more obscure than the 2020 candidate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pius XIII Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 28 minutes ago, vcczar said: All the Libertarian candidates are as obscure as hell. He's the one that appears to be the frontrunner or doing the most if you look at the wikipedia page for Libertarian Party 2024. There might be someone else that shows up, but they all seem more obscure than the 2020 candidate. The Libertarians need to bring back Lincoln Chafee. He knows what Aleppo is and his campaigns totally did well in 2016 and 2020. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vcczar Posted November 14 Author Share Posted November 14 5 minutes ago, Pius XIII said: The Libertarians need to bring back Lincoln Chafee. He knows what Aleppo is and his campaigns totally did well in 2016 and 2020. I don't think the Green Party or Libertarian Party can ever do well unless they have someone with celebrity status. Elon Musk would be the kind of candidate Libertarians need to get recognition, but he's foreign-born. The Green Party probably needs some sort of Hollywood star or like Neil DeGrass Tyson or other science celebrity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rezi Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 24 minutes ago, vcczar said: The Green Party probably needs some sort of Hollywood star or like Neil DeGrass Tyson or other science celebrity. Only one man can save the Green Party... The First 5-Term President.mp4 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vcczar Posted November 14 Author Share Posted November 14 1 hour ago, Rezi said: Only one man can save the Green Party... The First 5-Term President.mp4 15 MB · 0 downloads He would do better than Jill Stein. I’d like to see someone like Nick Offermann run as Green Party nominee. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.