vcczar Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 Today is Pres. Biden’s birthday. I wish him well, and I’ll certainly vote for him in 2024 if he’s on the ballot. But I’m now becoming increasingly worried about his reelection chances. His favorables don’t increase, despite economic numbers, jobs numbers, etc that would typically see a president rise in the polls. As such, the economy may no longer be a major factor for support. Many polls see age as a leading factor for his lack of favorables, while most people don’t see age as a factor for Trump, who is only 4 years younger. For whatever reason, Biden is perceived as much older than Trump. Biden is also hampered by two difficult situations. 1) The Gaza War, where we see Democrats and Democratic supporters split on how much pro-Israel is too pro-Israel. And 2) The issues at the border, which no president has ever been able to resolve, not even “tough on immigration” politicians. Biden is also hampered by not being a unifying figure to defeat Trump in 2024 as he was in 2020. Some are looking to Manchin now. Some are going with RFK Jr or Cornel West. Some will go with Jill Stein. That is, Biden will have less power going into this election. He also won’t be able to use the COVID pandemic to sit out of campaigning. He’ll have to be an 81 year old active on the map. Meanwhile, Trump could bite off an orphan’s head on live TV and he won’t lose any support among his base. The only hope is that Trump is rightly convicted, causing reluctant Trump supporters to vote elsewhere (even if it isn’t Biden) or stay at home. I see this election hinging on the Trump trials being decisive and sentencing Trump. Im a little shocked that RFK Jr is definitely taking more support from Biden than Trump too. Every poll. Very noticeable. It’s bad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bushwa777 Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 1. Go to a store. Prices are high. Sell a house prices low or buy a house prices and mortgage rates high. 2. Both may be old but Trump does not need notes, that we know of, to know what to say, does not trip on stage, and has not got in supporters faces screaming at them. 3. Trump supporters would be more convinced about Trump trials if they had not been brought by Dems who promised they would find something to try him with if elected. If a neutral da had brought charges it would be different or if both Biden, Pence and Obama were charged for having classified docs not secured it would be different. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pringles Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 I think once Trump is convicted these polls are going to shift. But I do not give any real value to these current polls for the most part. They've been consistently wrong. Some have the right outcome but were way off in terms of MOE. Governor Beshear should've won by two points according to final polls, he won by 5. Reeves should've won with a 10-point victory, he won by like 4.5. I actually interpret these current favorability polls a lot similarly to Macron in France. Low approvals, but he destroyed Le Pen in his re-election. Either way, I trust what Allan Lichtman has to say on the matter as well, which is that these current polls have no predictive value. And if you look in the past, they almost never ended up correct. Otherwise, Mondale should've held Reagan to just a 2-point victory in his re-election, and Mike Dukakis should've destroyed George HW Bush. I could go on. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vcczar Posted November 20 Author Share Posted November 20 1 minute ago, Pringles said: I think once Trump is convicted these polls are going to shift. But I do not give any real value to these current polls for the most part. They've been consistently wrong. Some have the right outcome but were way off in terms of MOE. Governor Beshear should've won by two points according to final polls, he won by 5. Reeves should've won with a 10-point victory, he won by like 4.5. I actually interpret these current favorability polls a lot similarly to Macron in France. Low approvals, but he destroyed Le Pen in his re-election. Either way, I trust what Allan Lichtman has to say on the matter as well, which is that these current polls have no predictive value. And if you look in the past, they almost never ended up correct. Otherwise, Mondale should've held Reagan to just a 2-point victory in his re-election, and Mike Dukakis should've destroyed George HW Bush. I could go on. I hope you’re right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShortKing Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 8 minutes ago, Pringles said: I do not give any real value to these current polls for the most part. They've been consistently wrong. Some have the right outcome but were way off in terms of MOE. Governor Beshear should've won by two points according to final polls, he won by 5. This narrative has taken a really strong hold but the polls are not half so inaccurate as folks like to say. Take all the KY-Gov polls and average them together, you get Beshear+6 and if you take out the Emerson outliers, you get Beshear+5 which was the exact result. The MS Gov polling was notably worse but also less frequent and less high-quality. The polls are not gospel but they have nowhere near the issues with accuracy to justify completely ignoring them, though ofc polls rn are not meant to be predictive of what happens in a year. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pringles Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 50 minutes ago, ShortKing said: This narrative has taken a really strong hold but the polls are not half so inaccurate as folks like to say. Take all the KY-Gov polls and average them together, you get Beshear+6 and if you take out the Emerson outliers, you get Beshear+5 which was the exact result. The MS Gov polling was notably worse but also less frequent and less high-quality. The polls are not gospel but they have nowhere near the issues with accuracy to justify completely ignoring them, though ofc polls rn are not meant to be predictive of what happens in a year. I really wish the modern day was as simple as the old days of the late 20th century. When outlets such as Gallup were well respected, trusted, and generally very correct in their results. Gallup is still pretty good, but these days all polling has the potential to be off due to the discrepancy of respondents, and type of respondents. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vcczar Posted November 20 Author Share Posted November 20 12 minutes ago, Pringles said: I really wish the modern day was as simple as the old days of the late 20th century. When outlets such as Gallup were well respected, trusted, and generally very correct in their results. Gallup is still pretty good, but these days all polling has the potential to be off due to the discrepancy of respondents, and type of respondents. Are you sure they were significantly more accurate? I honestly don’t know the answer, so I’m not questioning your judgment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pringles Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 (edited) 45 minutes ago, vcczar said: Are you sure they were significantly more accurate? I honestly don’t know the answer, so I’m not questioning your judgment. I suppose it's up to your own interpretation, but here's my take: I'll give you more backstory if you'd like concerning other elections, you may already know this though... but Gallup was founded during the events of the 1936 election. The story goes, some magazine poll showed Alf Landon beating FDR. This perplexed a lot of folks as FDR was pretty popular for obvious reasons. However, during the Great Depression, this magazine largely had a wealthier audience, so a man by the name of George Gallup created the Gallup poll and pioneered new methods of statistical surveying. Gallup started cranking out polls for 1936 that showed FDR winning handily, just as he ended up doing. Gallup at least after that and until the age of social media had a lot of respect as one of the better polling outlets. Here's their 2000 polling: 1984 polling: It's basically spot on. As I said previously though, the age of social media among other phenomena has started to make polling seem redundant. However, I think it still has its place, especially in favorability ratings among other things. Edited November 20 by Pringles 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vcczar Posted November 20 Author Share Posted November 20 27 minutes ago, Pringles said: I suppose it's up to your own interpretation, but here's my take: I'll give you more backstory if you'd like concerning other elections, you may already know this though... but Gallup was founded during the events of the 1936 election. The story goes, some magazine poll showed Alf Landon beating FDR. This perplexed a lot of folks as FDR was pretty popular for obvious reasons. However, during the Great Depression, this magazine largely had a wealthier audience, so a man by the name of George Gallup created the Gallup poll and pioneered new methods of statistical surveying. Gallup started cranking out polls for 1936 that showed FDR winning handily, just as he ended up doing. Gallup at least after that and until the age of social media had a lot of respect as one of the better polling outlets. Here's their 2000 polling: 1984 polling: It's basically spot on. As I said previously though, the age of social media among other phenomena has started to make polling seem redundant. However, I think it still has its place, especially in favorability ratings among other things. It definitely has its place. I wouldn't have predicted the 2020 Election 99% accurately (missing only ME-2) without the polls. I beat every major prediction, I believe, that made a prediction for every state. I remember being surprised my algorithm was predicting GA for Biden. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edouard Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 What surprises me the most in this election cycle is how good RFK junior is doing. It's unprecedented In my life, and I am no longer that young, it takes to go back to 1992 to see a third party candidate doing so well. Even Clinton vs Trump 2016 did not see a third party candidate doing that well. Yet I wouldn't say that the conflict in Gaza is what hurts Biden the most but inflation certainly is. Then immigration as you said. Inflation should go down, immigration is a tough issue for democrats. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bushwa777 Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 So NY times does a podcast and they did a survey over the weekend. Blacks and Latino voter's are going away from Biden. May be tough to win without those groups Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vcczar Posted November 25 Author Share Posted November 25 15 minutes ago, Bushwa777 said: So NY times does a podcast and they did a survey over the weekend. Blacks and Latino voter's are going away from Biden. May be tough to win without those groups Latinos have been going away from Democrats for the last few elections, so that isn't surprising. I'm wondering where the Blacks and Latinos are switching over because Blacks and Latinos aren't identical nationally. If they are primarily crossing over in already red states that matters less than if they are crossing over in Blue or Purple states. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bushwa777 Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 3 minutes ago, vcczar said: Latinos have been going away from Democrats for the last few elections, so that isn't surprising. I'm wondering where the Blacks and Latinos are switching over because Blacks and Latinos aren't identical nationally. If they are primarily crossing over in already red states that matters less than if they are crossing over in Blue or Purple states. Well figure NY at least possibly PA since its a poll and the podcast guy also checked with family during Thanksgiving....so cannot go far since he also works for NY times Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vcczar Posted November 25 Author Share Posted November 25 10 minutes ago, Bushwa777 said: Well figure NY at least possibly PA since its a poll and the podcast guy also checked with family during Thanksgiving....so cannot go far since he also works for NY times Losing blacks and latinos in NY won't hurt Biden's changes for 2024. It's worrisome for Dems running in the US House and worrisome long term. However, it might also mean that Blacks and Latinos are showing more social mobility and/or that Republicans are becoming more welcoming of minorities. A lot of it might be because inter-racial marriage has become more and more normal, so someone could be Black and Latino but more culturally white or something. There's probably a lot of factors. I've heard that two big reasons Latinos in Texas have been voting Republican are 1) Democrats seem to focus on blacks as their minority focus group, and 2) some Latinos see themselves as white and don't like being treated as a minority group. I've also heard that some Latinos think they're more likely to be accepted as Americans if they join the party most opposed to Mexican immigration ("self-hating Hispanic" concept). If we look at Demographics: Only 45% of suburbanites going for Clinton but 54% going for Biden. Who knows where this goes in 2024. I tend to think Biden will still outperform Clinton here, but will he outperform Trump? Clinton actually did better than Biden among rural voters! Trump won 59% of rural people in 2016, but then he won 65% in 2020. I would suspect that Biden might lose even more rural voters. Like most Dems, Biden is focused on urban and suburban. I think Dems are pretty much going to allow Trump to just rack up support their and focus on suburbanites. Trump in 2020 didn't really do that great with Hispanics. He won 41% of those without college degrees, but only 30% of Hispanics with college degrees. Biden won 92% of blacks in 2020. Trump won 8%. That's a huge landslide. Perhaps Trump could get to 10%, but we also have to consider that Biden's lost votes might just not vote. Leaving Democrats doesn't necessarily mean supporting Trump. Both Biden and Clinton won about 55% of women voters. I think with the recent Roe v. Wade thing, that Biden might see increased support among women here. Trump won about 65% of whites with no college degree in both elections. These and rural voters--many who are probably also these whites with no college degree--are his base. Trump's support among evangelicals went from 77% to 84%, which is kind of odd considering he's probably the closest president we've ever had to being unholy, openly and happily sinful with no clear signs of repentence. I understand if they support Trump over policy, but if their vote is fueled primarily by their faith, then they aren't Christians, they're unwittingly closet-Satanists or hypocrits at a minimum. I think willfully ignorant and willfully hypocritical people are my largest pet peeve demographic. Many, although not all, Evangelicals encompass both of these. I refuse to consider those that are both willfully ignorant an willfully hypocrticial to be real Christians, although I accept them identifying as such. There is nothing Christ-like about them. Those evengelicals who are not willfully ignorant and willfully hypocritical are often good people. So I don't condemn all evangelicals. I'm just pointing out those that I would assume most other Christian groups also have an issue with since they give Christianity a bad name, deter converts, and are actually helping accelerate the decline of Christians as a % of the population. Asians 72% for Biden Voters who graduated with a college degree voted Biden 56% and those with graduate degrees voted Biden 67%. I think any voter that could pass an elementary logic test, and who isn't wealthy, would vote Democrat if they live in a city or suburb. I can perfectly understand rural voters and wealthy people voting Republican. The biggest difference between Clinton and Biden is that Biden did so much better among suburbanites and independents (many also suburbanites). One good sign for Trump and worrisome sign for Biden is that Trump did a lot better in winning urban voters in his 2020 defeat than he did in his 2016 victory. I think if Biden loses more black voters (either to non-participation or to Trump) and if Trump improves his support in urban areas again, then Biden is toast. This probably means the general election will be focused in the urban areas and faster-growing suburban areas than usual. We also have to take into account that Biden crushed Trump in the popular vote without even really campaigning in 2020. He seemed to campaign 3 times a month, while Trump was campaigning daily. Trump was so unpopular that Biden didn't even have to do anything to win. This time we will presumably see Biden showing up, which I think could see Biden's numbers rise back up in the cities. One thing for sure is that Biden will have to work for this victory. He can't just let Trump defeat himself like he could in 2020. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bushwa777 Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 Nothing says it will be Trump or Biden. The former could implode in primary and the latter could die. Also I resent you saying that Christians are closet satan worshiping people. Just like your peeps holding your nose and voting for bad candidates like AOC or Hillary it could be about issues not person Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vcczar Posted November 25 Author Share Posted November 25 18 minutes ago, Bushwa777 said: Also I resent you saying that Christians are closet satan worshiping people You didn't read closely. I pointed out only a very specific group, and only part of that group, as closet-Satanists. I'm talking only specifically about willfully ignorant & willfilly hypocrtical evangelical Christians. This fraction of evangelicals are actively and willfully un-Christlike. I think most Christians outside of this group would agree with me, at least in part. And again you didn't read closely, but I mention that I can understand Trump support among evangelicals on issues. What I'm talking about are those support Trump because of some spiritual reason. I can be more specific: Evangelicals voting for Trump because they believe he is somehow a God-annointed candidate. Those people are obviously mentally ill or desperately needing irony supplements. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bushwa777 Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 Crucial Poll In Battleground State Sums Up 2024 Election (msn.com) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vcczar Posted November 27 Author Share Posted November 27 18 minutes ago, Bushwa777 said: Crucial Poll In Battleground State Sums Up 2024 Election (msn.com) Probably RFK Jr taking young left-leaning voters. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bushwa777 Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 Be interesting if rfk gets just enough to throw it into the house Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vcczar Posted November 27 Author Share Posted November 27 43 minutes ago, Bushwa777 said: Be interesting if rfk gets just enough to throw it into the house I doubt he wins a state. He might come in 2nd in states that are basically one party, such as NY or WY. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bushwa777 Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 33 minutes ago, vcczar said: I doubt he wins a state. He might come in 2nd in states that are basically one party, such as NY or WY. Well people doubt that Trump will win in jail but.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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