The Economist 2024 Forecast predicts Biden victory

[vcczar]

The Economist does a forecast every year, and they tend to be fairly accurate. I think they did particularly well in 2023. 

Right now they think Biden is about 75% likely to be reelected. This still allows for a noticeable chance for Trump to win with 25%. Remember, most pollsters were giving Trump a 25% chance to win in 2016, and he won. It's basically like Trump needing to roll a 1-25 on a 100-sided die to win. The odds are against him, but it is doable. My person prediction is that Trump will have to be convicted or being likely to face certain conviction after the election. 

They also predict Labour taking over in the UK.

They also has an article explaining that Libertarian movements are gaining strength internationally. My assumption is that this is a reaction to a perceived rise of authoritarian and authoritarian wannabe leaders (such as Trump). I'm not sure what that means for the US. It might allow for the outside chance that the Libertarians here overperform. 

On another note, we got out first poll with Manchin in a 5-way race. 3rd Parties are getting RFK Jr (12%), West (4%), Manchin (3%), and Stein (2%). Libertarians aren't in this poll. That's almost 1/4 of the votes going 3rd party. Trump leads Biden in this matchup, but it's impossible to predict who would win this kind of election because we need to know where these 3rd parties are siphoning off support and from who. These numbers could plummet if ballot access is limited. Personally, I think any party that is polling 2% in a state should automatically be on the ballot. I say this while preferring head-to-head, which I think would hurt Trump even more. However, RFK Jr is a huge wild card. If he's polling 20% in the general, he has the power to determine the winner. If he embraced Trump policies more than Biden policies, then he'll likely aid Biden in the general. And vice-versa. I could see either Biden or Trump working some sort of deal to affect this.

[10centjimmy]

We're a ways off, but do we know the typical poll threshold for debate participation? I want to say it was 15% but that may have been back in 1996. Not sure if they updated it since.

[vcczar]

3 minutes ago, 10centjimmy said:

We're a ways off, but do we know the typical poll threshold for debate participation? I want to say it was 15% but that may have been back in 1996. Not sure if they updated it since.

I think it is still 15% but a lot of people don't watch debates. I think Trump is going to skip them. Might be Biden vs RFK Jr only if we have any at all.

[Bushwa777]

Again v go to store buy gas buy a house or apartment.  Prices up everywhere due to inflation. Your own party preached it in 1992 its the economy stupid.   No matter how many left wing mags you read wanting Biden it wont happen.  Nor will it be Trump.  It will be someone gop if Newman jumps in soon.  

[vcczar]

3 minutes ago, Bushwa777 said:

Again v go to store buy gas buy a house or apartment.  Prices up everywhere due to inflation. Your own party preached it in 1992 its the economy stupid.   No matter how many left wing mags you read wanting Biden it wont happen.  Nor will it be Trump.  It will be someone gop if Newman jumps in soon.  

Economist isn’t leftwing. It’s center-right. Conservative but anti populist. Also gas prices haven’t been going down nationally for 60+ days. 

[Bushwa777]

Eggs high.  Milk high.  Everything higher now then when it was under trump.  Listen to james Carville....he even called it lately again its the economy.  Biden is showing his age and no one except maybe you and 3 others like the vp. Biden needs to dump her to even have a chance

[Hestia]

3 minutes ago, vcczar said:

Economist isn’t leftwing. It’s center-right. Conservative but anti populist. Also gas prices haven’t been going down nationally for 60+ days. 

Real. Went through Des Moines on the way back to school - down to 2.61 in some places. 2.80 is probably average around here now, which is much better than before.

[Bushwa777]

I live in cedar rapids and its 3.07 here.  Capital lower so governor does not have to see it

[Hestia]

Just now, Bushwa777 said:

I live in cedar rapids and its 3.07 here.  Capital lower so governor does not have to see it

My home is in Western Iowa and it was 2.81 there before I left. 

[Pius XIII]

3 hours ago, vcczar said:

The Economist does a forecast every year, and they tend to be fairly accurate. I think they did particularly well in 2023. 

Right now they think Biden is about 75% likely to be reelected. This still allows for a noticeable chance for Trump to win with 25%. Remember, most pollsters were giving Trump a 25% chance to win in 2016, and he won. It's basically like Trump needing to roll a 1-25 on a 100-sided die to win. The odds are against him, but it is doable. My person prediction is that Trump will have to be convicted or being likely to face certain conviction after the election. 

They also predict Labour taking over in the UK.

They also has an article explaining that Libertarian movements are gaining strength internationally. My assumption is that this is a reaction to a perceived rise of authoritarian and authoritarian wannabe leaders (such as Trump). I'm not sure what that means for the US. It might allow for the outside chance that the Libertarians here overperform. 

On another note, we got out first poll with Manchin in a 5-way race. 3rd Parties are getting RFK Jr (12%), West (4%), Manchin (3%), and Stein (2%). Libertarians aren't in this poll. That's almost 1/4 of the votes going 3rd party. Trump leads Biden in this matchup, but it's impossible to predict who would win this kind of election because we need to know where these 3rd parties are siphoning off support and from who. These numbers could plummet if ballot access is limited. Personally, I think any party that is polling 2% in a state should automatically be on the ballot. I say this while preferring head-to-head, which I think would hurt Trump even more. However, RFK Jr is a huge wild card. If he's polling 20% in the general, he has the power to determine the winner. If he embraced Trump policies more than Biden policies, then he'll likely aid Biden in the general. And vice-versa. I could see either Biden or Trump working some sort of deal to affect this.

I am very weary of any poll predicting who will win or lose an American Presidential Election, namely because we do not have a President Hillary Clinton right now. Frankly, I see the race as a tossup. Both candidates are unpopular with a vast majority of Americans. Donald Trump's negatives are primarily personality based- those who hate him, will not vote for him regardless of if his policies are closer to their own rather than Joe's- I am one of those people. Abortion is another negative for Republicans if the past couple elections are an indicator, and I say this as someone who despises the practice and someone who agrees with the majority of the legal community that Roe was bad law. Trump appointed judges who contributed to the overturning of Roe, so that issue will be on the ballot- even if Trump is a social liberal cosplaying as a social conservative. Donald Trump's positives are a direct result of Biden's failures. Inflation is still through the roof- gas in my home state is still over a dollar higher than it was when Trump left office. Yes, I know that the blame cannot be placed solely one Biden, but in my time in the political arena, perception always trumped reality. Biden has also blundered on foreign policy- the Withdrawal from Afghanistan has faded into the background right for now, but it will return on the campaign trail. This, alongside Russia's escalation in Ukraine, occurred under Biden's watch. With Joe's very clear mental decline, I am sure the campaign will start to center on who is the "weaker leader", and this topic doesn't do Biden any favors. None of these points take into account the third parties- I've frankly lost track of them, but we have the Green Party under Stein, West's leftist Independent run, Manchin's potential "No-Label's" run, and RFK Jr's Independent run. Note that these are all folks on the left side of the political spectrum, and I only see RFK as a potential negative for Trump... What I'm getting at is that I think that 75% is to generous of a rating for Biden.

"They also predict Labour taking over in the UK."- the UK Conservatives have tripped on their own shoelaces so many times that this would not shock me. I am curious at how Labour will try to follow through with Brexit.

 

[Pringles]

8 minutes ago, Hestia said:

Real. Went through Des Moines on the way back to school - down to 2.61 in some places. 2.80 is probably average around here now, which is much better than before.

 

5 minutes ago, Hestia said:

My home is in Western Iowa and it was 2.81 there before I left. 

2.57 here in upstate SC. 

[Bushwa777]

Regardless it was under 2.00 before Obama so those were the days

[Blockmon]

37 minutes ago, Bushwa777 said:

I live in cedar rapids and its 3.07 here.  Capital lower so governor does not have to see it

 

39 minutes ago, Hestia said:

Real. Went through Des Moines on the way back to school - down to 2.61 in some places. 2.80 is probably average around here now, which is much better than before.

wow its higher here in west MA by 3.20

[DakotaHale]

4 hours ago, Blockmon said:

wow its higher here in west MA by 3.20

Still over $3 in rural OH as well.

[Bushwa777]

Just read that the BLM leader in Rhode Island threw his support behind Trump in 2024. Says Democratic Party is not for African Americans.  

[Pringles]

3 hours ago, Bushwa777 said:

Just read that the BLM leader in Rhode Island threw his support behind Trump in 2024. Says Democratic Party is not for African Americans.  

I too, if I were a borderline crime organization that uses violence to attain my goals, would throw my support behind the candidate who does the same in order to normalize my political style.

[vcczar]

4 hours ago, Bushwa777 said:

Just read that the BLM leader in Rhode Island threw his support behind Trump in 2024. Says Democratic Party is not for African Americans.  

 

1 hour ago, Pringles said:

I too, if I were a borderline crime organization that uses violence to attain my goals, would throw my support behind the candidate who does the same in order to normalize my political style.

I just read about this guy. He isn’t THE BLM lead in RI. He’s a co-founder of the state movement among many co-founders. He also lived in MD now. Apparently the rest of BLM is livid and cite Biden appointing more blacks to federal offices, especially judgeships, as a sign for working for the black vote  Also the newest US Rep for RI is a black Democrat the first black person in the state to hold federal elected office. 

I will say that the GOP is doing better with representation among blacks than they used to be. However, there is still a lot of tokenism. We saw that a lot with how Trump would use Ben Carson and Herman Cain on campaign in 2016 and then 2020. Who can forget Trump stating out loud on campaign, “Where’s my African-American?” 

It certainly isn’t good for Biden to lose any BLM leaders, but he’s still going to win 90% of Blacks nationally. What matters is the turnout. They need to maximize that 90%

 

[Pringles]

59 minutes ago, vcczar said:

 

I just read about this guy. He isn’t THE BLM lead in RI. He’s a co-founder of the state movement among many co-founders. He also lived in MD now. Apparently the rest of BLM is livid and cite Biden appointing more blacks to federal offices, especially judgeships, as a sign for working for the black vote  Also the newest US Rep for RI is a black Democrat the first black person in the state to hold federal elected office. 

I will say that the GOP is doing better with representation among blacks than they used to be. However, there is still a lot of tokenism. We saw that a lot with how Trump would use Ben Carson and Herman Cain on campaign in 2016 and then 2020. Who can forget Trump stating out loud on campaign, “Where’s my African-American?” 

It certainly isn’t good for Biden to lose any BLM leaders, but he’s still going to win 90% of Blacks nationally. What matters is the turnout. They need to maximize that 90%

 

Yeah I don’t really buy into the narrative that Biden is horribly sliding with Black voters. If you ask me, frankly, the dumbest statements to come out of the ordeal is MAGA idiots saying since Trump is indicted and is about to be convicted by the deep state, they’re flamboyantly saying he’ll win the black vote, like they’re serious. Frankly, I think it’s borderline racist, and that’s not an accusation I throw around much to anyone, but it is seriously demeaning, idiotic, and borderline racist to be using that as the excuse to say you’re going to appeal to more Black voters. 
 

I hope, and believe Black voters will see through it. The same way they see through the far left of the Democratic Party. Especially in my state where they handed Biden his first, and one of his biggest primary victories. 

[pilight]

On 11/27/2023 at 9:21 PM, Bushwa777 said:

Again v go to store buy gas buy a house or apartment.  Prices up everywhere due to inflation. Your own party preached it in 1992 its the economy stupid.   No matter how many left wing mags you read wanting Biden it wont happen.  Nor will it be Trump.  It will be someone gop if Newman jumps in soon.  

We have inflation but the economy isn't bad.  Unemployment is non-existent, wages are up, and corporate profits are at record levels.  The inflation is mostly because the economy is doing so well.  Everybody has money to spend.

[The Blood]

7 hours ago, pilight said:

We have inflation but the economy isn't bad.  Unemployment is non-existent, wages are up, and corporate profits are at record levels.  The inflation is mostly because the economy is doing so well.  Everybody has money to spend.

I agree that the economy has certainly been more robust than most economists and commentators predicted over the 2022-2023 period, but I wouldn't be so callous as to the impact higher prices have had, leading to persistently low consumer sentiment. Yes, there was a savings influx connected to COVID relief spending, but over the past two years, a low personal saving rate and rising consumer debt are both indicators this excess cash was burned through during recent years' price surges. Additionally, we did see a prolonged period of real wages falling, which is simply bound to affect economic perceptions, regardless of the health of the labor market. 

And while a tight labor market has certainly benefited the lower class, it's worth pointing out much of these political and economic storm clouds have been derived from the middle class, who, quite simply, have less to gain from a hot labor market while still being impacted by the price increases coupled to that market. 

Once again, my case isn't that we're in a terrible economy, but there are valid explanations for why consumer sentiment has been so low and why the economy is a thorn in Democrats' sides.