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The Political Lounge

Race to the White House Polls (Nov 28, 2023)


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It's still too early, but here's what the Race to the White House website is projecting based on all polls: 

In a head to head Biden vs. Trump without 3rd parties, we get this (note: Trump leads PV by +2):



Below, In Biden, Trump, RFK Jr we get the following. I've filled in some states based on RFK Jr taking slightly more from Biden than Trump as is what is showing in every 3-way poll: 



Below, if Trump is convicted, we get the following map. I've filled in states that haven't polls--CO, NM, VA, MN, NH, MN...



Overall, this shows why it is important to America that Trump is rightfully convicted. The last map shows a lot of people are in a "I gotta see it to believe it" mentality. Trump is likely to be convicted, but the chance he is convicted prior to election day probably isn't high. This means he could pardon himself or escape punishment that would certainly see jailtime for nearly all other people. I say this as someone that is 98% certain that Trump is guilty and that conviction is likely justified. To me it's bizarre that he continually evades any punishment. This has been mostly routine for his entire life. I think he think he's impervious to anything so that justifies his bad behevior. 

Anyway, here's a map if Harris is the nominee against Trump. I've filled in states like NM, CO, and FL and NC that weren't filled out on the website map.


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