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2024 Questionnaire

vcczar

By vcczar
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2024 Questionnaire   

14 members have voted

  1. 1. Trump is currently leading in MI, PA, WI, AZ, GA, NC, FL, and NV in polls that include RFK. Which of the following is closer to your thoughts?

    • Considering 9/10 polls show RFK hurting Biden more than Trump, expect RFK to contribute to a Trump victory
      2
    • I think as we get closer to the general, that RFK will take more from Trump, potentially helping Biden more than Trump.
      12
    • RFK will take so much from both that he will have more EVs on election day.
      0

  2. 2. Polls that include Trump, Biden, and RFK generally Trump leading by 6% popular vote (on average) with 10-12% undecided. Which of the following is closer to your thoughts?

    • These undecided are going to be overwhelmingly for Biden. They just hope Dems find someone else. Enough will back Biden to get him reelected.
      12
    • Trump's 6% margin in battleground states w/ RFK in the race is too big a lead, and the undecideds won't shift the race from Trump.
      2
    • These undecided don't want either Biden or Trump and will more likely back RFK, helping him get possibly 20-25% of the vote.
      0

  3. 3. Assuming Biden and Trump are 50/50 in MI, PA, WI, AZ, and GA, and no 3rd party can win the election, which of the following statements do you think is true?

    • Cornel West's Left-wing populist candidacy will take at least 1%-worth of potential voters from Biden
      6
    • RFK's mix of Left-wing an right-wing populist candidacy will take at least 1% more potential voters from Biden than Trump
      2
    • RFK's mix of Left-wing an right-wing populist candidacy will take at least 1% more potential voters from Trump than Biden
      10
    • If Joe Manchin runs as No Label his moderate-to-conservative Democratic history and moderate supporters will take at least 1% more potential voters from Biden than Trump
      10
    • If Joe Manchin runs as No Label his moderate-to-conservative Democratic history and moderate supporters will take at least 1% more potential voters from Trump than Biden
      2
    • If Liz Cheney runs as a Never-Trump GOPer she will take at least 1% more potential voters from Biden than Trump
      9
    • If Liz Cheney runs as a Never-Trump GOPer she will take at least 1% more potential voters from Trump than Biden
      4
    • The Libertarian Party will likely take at least 1% more potential voters from Trump than Biden
      5
    • The Libertarian Party will likely take at least 1% more potential voters from Biden than Trump
      0
    • Jill Stein of the Green Party will likely take at least 1% more potential voters from Biden
      9
    • Undecided Independent voters who did not vote for Biden or Trump in 2020 (or Trump or Clinton in 2016) will see Trump gain 1% more of this demographic than Biden
      4
    • Undecided Independent voters who did not vote for Biden or Trump in 2020 (or Trump or Clinton in 2016) will see Biden gain 1% more of this demographic than Trump
      5
    • Obama-to-Trump-Biden voters who are currently undecided will mostly stay with Biden
      9
    • Obama-to-Trump-Biden voters who are currently undecided will mostly return to Trump
      3
    • Obama to Clinton to Trump voters who are currently undecided will mostly stay with Trump
      12
    • Obama to Clinton to Trump voters who are currently undecided will mostly switch to Biden
      0
    • None of the above
      0

  4. 4. Considering what all you selected in the previous question, who seems more likely to win the crucial battleground states to secure 270 EVs?

  5. 5. If Trump is convicted before election day, does this change the result in the previous question. Which shows your thoughts best?

    • Polls show a significant landslide victory for Biden if this is the case, so Biden wins.
      12
    • While polls show Biden winning by a large margin, I expect the GOP to rally around Trump, if only because of Never-Biden; Trump wins
      1
    • The combination of GOPers just sticking with Trump reluctantly and 3rd Parties draining from Biden will lead to a Trump victory
      1
    • Doesn't matter because RFK Jr wins
      0

  6. 6. Who has been a better president?

    • Donald Trump 2017-2021
      2
    • Joe Biden 2021-present
      12

  7. 7. Who will be a better president in 2025?

  8. 8. What can Joe Biden realistically do to earn or lose your vote?

    • Biden would win my vote if...... (mention below)
      3
    • Biden would lose my vote if...(mention below)
      2
    • I can't forsee any realistic scenario in which my view changes.
      9

  9. 9. What can Donald Trump realistically do to earn or lose your vote?

    • Trump would win my vote if...... (mention below)
      1
    • Trump would lose my vote if...(mention below)
      1
    • I am too decided; can't forsee any realistic scenario in which my view changes.
      12

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vcczar

vcczar

Posted
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I'm certainly worried, but I think the numbers will look better for Biden once it is certain he is the nominee. I also think RFK will start taking more from Trump as the election progresses, especially as Trump seems more likely to get convicted. Everything hinges on Trump getting convicted or likely to get convicted. 

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WVProgressive

WVProgressive

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Posted

I don’t know if I’ve expressed this sentiment on here before, but I’ll start looking at the polls next August, and caring next October. Until then, they matter to me about as much as a daily horoscope. Actually, I might put more stock into my horoscope than I do polls this far out.

As for Question 8, Biden would win my vote if… I lived in a swing state. That is the beginning and end of my requirement list for any Democrat. Could my vote help determine the outcome of my state? Yes? Then I’ll vote for them no matter what. No? Then I’ll vote my conscience. I will never vote for a Republican. Realistically I’ll almost certainly vote for Kennedy in 2024.

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DakotaHale

DakotaHale

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, WVProgressive said:

I don’t know if I’ve expressed this sentiment on here before, but I’ll start looking at the polls next August, and caring next October. Until then, they matter to me about as much as a daily horoscope. Actually, I might put more stock into my horoscope than I do polls this far out.

As for Question 8, Biden would win my vote if… I lived in a swing state. That is the beginning and end of my requirement list for any Democrat. Could my vote help determine the outcome of my state? Yes? Then I’ll vote for them no matter what. No? Then I’ll vote my conscience. I will never vote for a Republican. Realistically I’ll almost certainly vote for Kennedy in 2024.

W

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Pringles

Pringles

Posted
Posted

Donald Trump could never win my vote at this point. Since Afghanistan and the economic woes, I've been disapproving of Biden's presidency as a whole. Despite that, if it's him or Trump I will not vote for Trump or a third party, I will vote for Biden to save the Republic. Same scenario if Vivek were to be the nominee.

If any other Republican takes the nomination which is highly doubtful, my voting pattern will change instantly. DeSantis? I'll vote for a third party since I don't think he's presidential material, but he isn't a danger to the Republic, and Biden does not deserve my vote in a normal matchup. Anyone else? It's an easy vote for the Republican nominee. I don't care that I do not live in a swing state. I take pride in fulfilling my civic duty and I will not cast my vote for people who do not deserve it outside of these extreme scenarios.

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The Blood

The Blood

Posted
Posted (edited)

Honestly, with Cornel West's mess of an initial campaign, I still see him being ineffectual, likely not even making the ballot in numerous states as an independent. I would posit, however, that Jill Stein has a more obvious route to gaining protest votes, as the Greens have more established ballot access and she's more of a known quantity. In the states where both are on the ballot, I imagine they just split the left vote, which I would predict is marginally boosted by Biden's abhorrent actions vis-à-vis Israel/Gaza. 

9 hours ago, WVProgressive said:

As for Question 8, Biden would win my vote if… I lived in a swing state. That is the beginning and end of my requirement list for any Democrat. Could my vote help determine the outcome of my state? Yes? Then I’ll vote for them no matter what. No? Then I’ll vote my conscience. I will never vote for a Republican. Realistically I’ll almost certainly vote for Kennedy in 2024.

Also, since this has come up multiple times, I am genuinely curious as to what is appealing to you about Kennedy. I don't even want to be confrontational here, I'm just interested and kind of dumbfounded given what a non-starter he is for me. 

Edited by The Blood
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vcczar

vcczar

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6 hours ago, The Blood said:

Also, since this has come up multiple times, I am genuinely curious as to what is appealing to you about Kennedy. I don't even want to be confrontational here, I'm just interested and kind of dumbfounded given what a non-starter he is for me. 

My guess is that some left of center people find him appealing because for the longest time he had a strong advocacy on environment and in other policies used to be somewhere between Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. He's moved right-ward pretty much across the board since becoming an independent. If he didn't have his crazy conspiracies, he'd be a good candidate on paper if you ignored the fact that he hasn't held office. 

The conspiracies and lack of experience are enough for me to never give him a second thought. Biden is better. RFK Jr, who is 70, is also too old to be president. He's just relatively younger by facing two men even older than him. 

On another note, RFK Jr and I both taught at Pace University at the same time, although I never saw him. Only celebrity professor that I saw at my time teaching at Pace was James Lipton. 

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WVProgressive

WVProgressive

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, The Blood said:

Also, since this has come up multiple times, I am genuinely curious as to what is appealing to you about Kennedy. I don't even want to be confrontational here, I'm just interested and kind of dumbfounded given what a non-starter he is for me. 

It’s a number of things, really. If I weren’t in a safe state, I wouldn’t even be considering voting for anyone but Biden to begin with, but I do have a number of stark disagreements with the administration which I seek to express at the ballot box next November. Additionally, the reason I’m for Kennedy over any of the other options is three fold, the biggest being my respect for Kennedy’s public activism, the second being my support for his stated policy positions (he’s not perfect but neither is Biden and I’d still vote for him), and finally I see him as the only third party candidate capable of getting 5% of the vote (and in my opinion closer to 15-20%) which is important to me since I’d like to play a role in getting him over that threshold.

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Blockmon

Blockmon

Posted
Posted

for questions 8 and 9,
Biden would lose my vote just because I am in MA, so my vote doesn't matter.
Trump could only win if he some how decided to go far left, I would be hesitate but I would give him my support.

RFK could go fuck off back to martha vineyard, he shitted on the kennedy's name and is just conspiracy putin lover.

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ShortKing

ShortKing

Posted
Posted

I plan to vote write-in if it's Biden v Trump again, and frankly that would not change even if I lived in a swing state. I voted Biden in 2020 but have been disappointed in his administration and would not vote for him again barring an about-face on many issues. His foreign policy record has been a very mixed bag. Still, if I could think of any issue that would make me consider voting for him in 2024, it would be bolstering support for Ukraine and Israel as well as Taiwan and taking a more aggressive posture against our enemies abroad. 

As for Trump, I think he's proven himself to be unfit to the point of posing a real threat to our democracy and the only reason that I don't consider it an imperative to vote for Biden against Trump is that the way Biden and the party as a whole have chosen to conduct themselves has directly led to Trump's head to head polling numbers being better now than they have literally ever been since his announcement for President in 2015. Yes, polls today are not predictive of an election almost a year out but they are not meant to be, they are snapshots in time. The fact that Trump, post-insurrection, is polling stronger against the Democratic nominee than he ever has before should be a wakeup call and instead, it feels like the party is choosing just to hold out hope that the polls are either wrong or will shift after he is convicted or maybe both. 

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Rezi

Rezi

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, ShortKing said:

His foreign policy record has been a very mixed bag. Still, if I could think of any issue that would make me consider voting for him in 2024, it would be bolstering support for Ukraine and Israel as well as Taiwan and taking a more aggressive posture against our enemies abroad. 

How would it impact your vote if Venezuela invades Guyana and Biden takes decisive action to intervene in that conflict?

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Rezi

Rezi

Posted
Posted

On number 8, Biden could theoretically lose my vote, but as I've generally approved of his presidency so far, he would really need to fuck shit up in the next 11 months. Even if he does, there isn't yet a third party candidate who I'd consider voting for, so it's moot anyways.

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ShortKing

ShortKing

Posted
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22 minutes ago, Rezi said:

How would it impact your vote if Venezuela invades Guyana and Biden takes decisive action to intervene in that conflict?

It would certainly sway me in his favor, though of course the management and execution matters. Afghanistan's a big black mark because I disagreed with both the idea and the execution, Israel he's played masterfully, Ukraine I agree with his position, I just have critiques with how he chooses to go about it. If his response to such a hypothetical were closer to his Israel response than Ukraine's then it would move me closer to voting Biden, if it's closer to Ukraine, I would be open to it but leaning toward write-in still. 

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jnewt

jnewt

Posted
Posted
On 12/5/2023 at 3:58 PM, WVProgressive said:

I don’t know if I’ve expressed this sentiment on here before, but I’ll start looking at the polls next August, and caring next October. Until then, they matter to me about as much as a daily horoscope. Actually, I might put more stock into my horoscope than I do polls this far out.

As for Question 8, Biden would win my vote if… I lived in a swing state. That is the beginning and end of my requirement list for any Democrat. Could my vote help determine the outcome of my state? Yes? Then I’ll vote for them no matter what. No? Then I’ll vote my conscience. I will never vote for a Republican. Realistically I’ll almost certainly vote for Kennedy in 2024.

I feel the exact same except for the last sentence. I expect I'll probably be voting for West.

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Cenzonico

Cenzonico

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, DakotaHale said:

Aren't you an ancap?

Used to be. After a lot of thought though I don't think anarchism is a viable option in the long term unfortunately, so I just identity as a Minarchist now. Besides, I find Mises super cringe, especially since it just shows how much the LP remains embroiled in it's purity battle.

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