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Who do you think wins these US Senate Races?


vcczar

Who do you think wins these US Senate Races?  

20 members have voted

  1. 1. Alaska

    • Lisa Murkowski - Independent R (Incumbent)
    • Kelly Tschibaka - Trump R
    • Edgar Blatchford - D
      0
  2. 2. Arizona

    • Mark Kelly - D (incumbent)
    • Mark Brnovich - R
  3. 3. Florida

    • Marco Rubio - R (incumbent)
    • Val Demings - D
  4. 4. Georgia

    • Raphael Warnock - D (incumbent)
    • Herschel Walker - Trump R (announcement pending)
  5. 5. Iowa

    • Jim Carlin - R (incumbent party)
    • Abby Finkenauer - D (announcement pending)
  6. 6. Kentucky

    • Rand Paul - Libertarian R
    • Charles Booker - Sanders D
  7. 7. Nevada

    • Catherine Cortez Masto - D (incumbent)
    • Adam Laxalt - R (announcement pending)
  8. 8. New Hampshire

    • Maggie Hassan - D (incumbent)
    • Donald Bolduc - Trump R
      0
  9. 9. North Carolina

    • Pat McCrory - R (incumbent party)
    • Cheri Beasley - D
  10. 10. Ohio

    • Josh Mandel - R (incumbent party)
    • Tim Ryan - D
  11. 11. Pennsylvania

    • Sean Parnell - R (incumbent party)
    • John Fetterman - Sanders D
  12. 12. Wisconsin (assuming Ron Johnson declines running for reelection)

    • Rebecca Kleefisch - R (incumbent party) (no Republican has declared to run for this office yet)
    • Mandela Barnes - Sanders D


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AK - The Democrats must consider supporting Lisa Murkowski. A poll shows that Gross will lose 54-46 in the final round of RCV.

AZ - Arizona is turning blue. Kelly will win.

FL - Rubio will win.

GA - Warnock can possibly win, but Herschel Walker seems to be the Republicans's best shot.

IA - Finkenauer can possibly improve numbers, but IA is red enough to vote Grassley.

KY - Paul will win.

NV - Masto will win, but it will be close.

NC - Slight Republican tilt, but it will be close. Good to see someone who's opponent Trump endorsed leading the primary polls.

NH - Sununu is the Republicans' only hope.

OH - Ohio is leaning red, but Mandel is controversial, and even though he's leading, hopefully, Ryan can overtake him.

PA - Democrats win here.

WI - It will be close.

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16 hours ago, vcczar said:

I don't think many people are expecting an upset. I'm shocked Charles Booker is even running. His best shot is as a mayor.

Mayor of Louisville or that Louisville congressional seat (assuming Republicans don't crack it in gerrymandering). Though his name ID will be much higher running a failed Senate campaign, which makes you wonder if he's trying to use it for something bigger.

 

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2 minutes ago, jvikings1 said:

Mayor of Louisville or that Louisville congressional seat (assuming Republicans don't crack it in gerrymandering). Though his name ID will be much higher running a failed Senate campaign, which makes you wonder if he's trying to use it for something bigger.

 

I could see him shooting for Congress afterwards, and then in 8-12 years possibly running for Governor, maybe in that time Kentucky shifts 2-3% to Dems, and then he has a chance of winning the Gov.

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2 minutes ago, jvikings1 said:

Mayor of Louisville or that Louisville congressional seat (assuming Republicans don't crack it in gerrymandering). Though his name ID will be much higher running a failed Senate campaign, which makes you wonder if he's trying to use it for something bigger.

 

I'm not sure what that "something bigger" would be in KY. It is interesting that there are a lot of Sanders-wing Democrats in conservative states--Booker in KY; Gillum in FL; Turner in OH. I just noticed that all three of these politicians are black, and probably have high support in the areas of the states where they are from. Gillum did suprisingly well in FL in his election and was often polled as the leader. This suggests some sort of cross-over appeal. Whatever Gillum did in FL, I think Booker would need to do in KY, but obviously by a much stronger margin since the difficulty of any Democrat winning in KY is very high. Cori Bush of MO is another Sanders Democrat in a Conservative state. Is there any chance Booker could win a US Rep seat in KY? I don't have the makeup of the KY delegation memorized. I'm also not sure how moderate the Democrat has to be to win a reliably blue district. 

 

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3 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I'm not sure what that "something bigger" would be in KY. It is interesting that there are a lot of Sanders-wing Democrats in conservative states--Booker in KY; Gillum in FL; Turner in OH. I just noticed that all three of these politicians are black, and probably have high support in the areas of the states where they are from. Gillum did suprisingly well in FL in his election and was often polled as the leader. This suggests some sort of cross-over appeal. Whatever Gillum did in FL, I think Booker would need to do in KY, but obviously by a much stronger margin since the difficulty of any Democrat winning in KY is very high. Cori Bush of MO is another Sanders Democrat in a Conservative state. Is there any chance Booker could win a US Rep seat in KY? I don't have the makeup of the KY delegation memorized. I'm also not sure how moderate the Democrat has to be to win a reliably blue district. 

 

I do remember Bernie almost winning KY in 2016 which was interesting. He lost by like .2%

Edited by themiddlepolitical
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7 minutes ago, themiddlepolitical said:

I could see him shooting for Congress afterwards, and then in 8-12 years possibly running for Governor, maybe in that time Kentucky shifts 2-3% to Dems, and then he has a chance of winning the Gov.

He wouldn't win statewide. The only reason we have a D governor is because of how hated Bevin was by many different sections of the population (and even then it was only a 5k vote difference). Now, there is an anti-Beshear effect that has severely damaged Democrats in statewide races (and likely sped up the movement towards further Republican solidification on the state's political climate).

 

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2 minutes ago, themiddlepolitical said:

I do remember Bernie almost winning KY in 2016 which was interesting. He lost by like .2%

Yeah, and maybe @jvikings1 can confirm this, that KY is one of the most populist states in the country. Rand Paul's and Bernie Sanders's are going to do better there than they would in most other states. It's the only think that probably gives Charles Booker any chance to get some votes, but he's facing a populist. 

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1 minute ago, vcczar said:

Yeah, and maybe @jvikings1 can confirm this, that KY is one of the most populist states in the country. Rand Paul's and Bernie Sanders's are going to do better there than they would in most other states. It's the only think that probably gives Charles Booker any chance to get some votes, but he's facing a populist. 

Yeah I notice the parallels with KY and WV- I think it's the blue collar populist aspect. I know where I grew up was around a lot of former coal mining towns, and there was a lot of crossover Bernie/Trump supporters which was interesting. 

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If Rocky Adkins runs against Booker I'm sure he'll lose (Booker)..But maybe Adkins would get a lot more votes. @jvikings1 what are your thoughts.

Edited by themiddlepolitical
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5 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I'm not sure what that "something bigger" would be in KY. It is interesting that there are a lot of Sanders-wing Democrats in conservative states--Booker in KY; Gillum in FL; Turner in OH. I just noticed that all three of these politicians are black, and probably have high support in the areas of the states where they are from. Gillum did suprisingly well in FL in his election and was often polled as the leader. This suggests some sort of cross-over appeal. Whatever Gillum did in FL, I think Booker would need to do in KY, but obviously by a much stronger margin since the difficulty of any Democrat winning in KY is very high. Cori Bush of MO is another Sanders Democrat in a Conservative state. Is there any chance Booker could win a US Rep seat in KY? I don't have the makeup of the KY delegation memorized. I'm also not sure how moderate the Democrat has to be to win a reliably blue district. 

 

Ya, I don't know about something bigger either. The seat that is centered around Louisville currently is a relatively safe Dem seat in the most left-leaning part of the state. But, there have been talks to gerrymander it once the new maps come out. This coming year Attica Scott (another black left-wing Democratic state rep) is challenging Yarmouth (the incumbent) for the seat. This could give us a good indication of where in the Democratic Party it lies (though she is definitely no where near as as strong of a potential challenger as Booker).

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12 minutes ago, vcczar said:

It is interesting that there are a lot of Sanders-wing Democrats in conservative states

 

Yeah, I noticed that Sanders did well in the primaries in places like Alaska, Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming.

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4 minutes ago, vcczar said:

Yeah, and maybe @jvikings1 can confirm this, that KY is one of the most populist states in the country. Rand Paul's and Bernie Sanders's are going to do better there than they would in most other states. It's the only think that probably gives Charles Booker any chance to get some votes, but he's facing a populist. 

I agree. We were ahead of the populist wave when we elected Bevin as governor in 2015 (which served as a little bit of a foreshadowing of Trump). Against McConnell this past year, he would have had a stronger position than McGrath (though still a loss).

5 minutes ago, themiddlepolitical said:

Yeah I notice the parallels with KY and WV- I think it's the blue collar populist aspect. I know where I grew up was around a lot of former coal mining towns, and there was a lot of crossover Bernie/Trump supporters which was interesting. 

Some of that has to do with the fact that Eastern KY still has a heavy Democrat advantage in voter registration (even though it is heavily R in voting at elections). But, it was very noticeable. In fact, I predicated that Bernie would do very well here against Clinton because of this (along with her shooting herself in the foot with some comments).

6 minutes ago, themiddlepolitical said:

If Rocky Adkins runs against Booker I'm sure he'll lose (Booker)..But maybe Adkins would get a lot more votes. @jvikings1 what are your thoughts.

That's tough. It would basically be a proxy war between the old guard Eastern KY Dems and the new challenging Bernie wing (would be very interesting to observe from the sidelines). Right now, I'd say Rocky would have an advantage because rural voters love him, but it would not be a slam dunk. Booker would have to work on expanding out of his urban strongholds to win.

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