vcczar Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 I finally updated this old spreadsheet with Biden's numbers. This is a chart to use when watching the presidential election to see if Biden is on track to winning PA again. Here are some observations. Biden is certainly more similar to Clinton than Obama, but a lot of that might be because they both faced Trump and Obama did not. I think the primary county to look at, aside from Philadelphia County turnout, is Chester County, which swung the most against Trump in 2020. Trump did not improve in a single key county from 2016 to 2020. I can't see Biden doing worse than Clinton, who seems more like a magnet for conservative turnout and rage than Biden has ever been. Biden and Clinton are comparable in energizing their party. Just on this along, my guess is Biden wins or loses PA by less than 1%, unless Trump is convicted before election day. Key Counties 2020 2016 2012 2008 2004 2000 Population Center Berks County, PA -8 -10 -1 9 -7 -9 Reading, PA Erie County, PA 1 -2 16 20 8 9 Erie, PA Lackawanna County, PA 9 3 27 26 14 24 Scranton, PA Luzerne County, PA -14 -19 5 8 3 8 Wilkes-Barre, PA Philadelphia County, PA 65 67 71 67 61 62 Philadelphia, PA Allegheny County, PA 21 17 15 15 15 16 Pittsburgh, PA Montgomery County, PA 26 22 14 21 3 9 Norristown, PA Bucks County, PA 4 3 1 9 3 4 Bensalem, PA Delaware County, PA 27 22 21 21 15 12 Upper Darby, PA Chester County, PA 17 9 0 9 -5 -9 West Chester, PA Lancaster County, PA -16 -19 -19 -12 -32 -35 Lancaster, PA York County, PA -24 -29 -21 -14 -28 -25 York, PA Northampton County, PA 1 -4 5 12 1 6 Bethlehem, PA Lehigh County, PA 8 5 8 16 3 1 Allentown, PA Pennsylvania Total 1 -1 5 10 3 5 1st Tier Election Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pringles Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 That Chester County swing from 2000 to 2020 is crazy. It goes to show just how much we've had a "mini-realignment" already. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vcczar Posted December 22, 2023 Author Share Posted December 22, 2023 4 minutes ago, Pringles said: That Chester County swing from 2000 to 2020 is crazy. It goes to show just how much we've had a "mini-realignment" already. A lot of it is the suburbs are getting bigger and becoming more linked to Philadelphia through shared big city sort of things--transportation, especially. They're identifying less with rural, subrural and more with bigger cities. Chester, Delaware, Berks, and Montgomery counties are suburbs with a lot of people probably working in Philadelphia and/or often hanging out there. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pringles Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 (edited) 6 minutes ago, vcczar said: A lot of it is the suburbs are getting bigger and becoming more linked to Philadelphia through shared big city sort of things--transportation, especially. They're identifying less with rural, subrural and more with bigger cities. Chester, Delaware, Berks, and Montgomery counties are suburbs with a lot of people probably working in Philadelphia and/or often hanging out there. Not an excuse to be cocky of course, but me personally? I can't see how Trump has a path to victory in Pennsylvania especially. It is under basically total Democratic control now. GOP lost a Senate seat, lost the governorship in an absolute landslide, (bigger than both or one of Fmr. Governor Wolf's victories I think?), Dems flipped the State House... Edited December 22, 2023 by Pringles Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vcczar Posted December 22, 2023 Author Share Posted December 22, 2023 1 minute ago, Pringles said: Not an excuse to be cocky of course, but me personally? I can't see how Trump has a path to victory in Pennsylvania especially. It is under basically total Democratic control now. GOP lost a Senate seat, lost the governorship in an absolute landslide, (bigger than both or one of Fmr. Governor Wolf's victories I think?), Dems flipped the State House... I wish I was that optimistic. It's about turnout. You'll have could-be voters that could be overwhelming preferring Biden but also a lot less likely to take the effort to vote. But I hope you're right. Another thing on suburbs outside major diverse cities is that the suburbs are becoming a lot more diverse, which is bringing in majority left-leaning voters, many who had been urbanites and vote like urbanites. The rural or sub-rural areas are certainly getting more red because Democrats are focusing on urban and suburban voters. PA is basically Mississippi between Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, so Biden has to have high turnout out on the Eastern and Western ends of the state. The Western part is getting more people from WV and OH, which is why the GOP is has been doing better in PA under Trump. PA is also losing population, which means losing influence and industry, which generally makes long-time PA people more nostalgic and more likely to vote GOP. FL, ID, and MT are kind of exceptions to this rule. GA, AZ, and TX are becoming purple because of population growth, bigger cities, and bigger suburbs. FL might have a totally different growth, which might explain why it is an outlier. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pringles Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 30 minutes ago, vcczar said: FL might have a totally different growth, which might explain why it is an outlier. It also doesn't help that the Democrats were outspent 4:1 in Florida for 2022 I believe. I watched a whole video analyzing the Florida trend toward the GOP. Two notable takeaways: Democrat turnout was low, and little money was spent. Dems will have such a huge cash advantage in 2024, it would be stupid for them to not put some effort into Florida, at least try to win back some of the lost House seats. Florida minority voters (Cuban-Americans especially) are also more prone to voting for the GOP at the moment, but it isn't a solid red state yet, and honestly, it never really has been outside of the 1980s. The Jacksonville mayoral race also was won by a Democrat earlier in the year, reigniting some hope that the state isn't lost yet. (The county that Jacksonville is in is a swing county.) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vcczar Posted December 22, 2023 Author Share Posted December 22, 2023 12 minutes ago, Pringles said: It also doesn't help that the Democrats were outspent 4:1 in Florida for 2022 I believe. I watched a whole video analyzing the Florida trend toward the GOP. Two notable takeaways: Democrat turnout was low, and little money was spent. Dems will have such a huge cash advantage in 2024, it would be stupid for them to not put some effort into Florida, at least try to win back some of the lost House seats. Florida minority voters (Cuban-Americans especially) are also more prone to voting for the GOP at the moment, but it isn't a solid red state yet, and honestly, it never really has been outside of the 1980s. The Jacksonville mayoral race also was won by a Democrat earlier in the year, reigniting some hope that the state isn't lost yet. (The county that Jacksonville is in is a swing county.) I just posted FL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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