TX Key County Presidential Results (2000-2020)

[vcczar]

Here's TX. I've personally been to all of these key counties/population centers except for El Paso. I've actually rarely been outside of Central, North, South, or East Texas. I've actually lived in 5 of these key counties. 

Overall, this state is definitely moving purple, although I would be shocked if Biden won the state in 2024. I think we have to wait for 2028 or 2032 for Democrats to win TX. The 2000 and 2004 numbers could be misleading when you consider Bush was of TX, so he has a hometown boost. That said, it's pretty amazing that both Clinton and Biden had larger margins than Bush in 5 of these counties. As usual, everything depends on Dems doing well in cities, suburbs, and college town. Look at Hays County--San Marcos TX is holding a presidential debate. It went majorly for Biden despite disliking Clinton. San Marcos is where I lived from 2001- very early 2008 and again in 2013. 

Key Counties	2020	2016	2012	2008	2004	2000	Population Center

Harris County, TX	13	12	0	2	-10	-11	Houston, TX
Dallas County, TX	32	26	15	15	1	-8	Dallas, TX
Travis County, TX	45	39	24	30	14	-5	Austin, TX
Fort Bend County, TX	11	6	-7	-2	-15	-21	Sugar Land, TX
Tarrant County, TX	0	-9	-16	-11	-25	-24	Fort Worth, TX
Bexar County, TX	18	13	4	5	-10	-7	San Antonio, TX
Collin County, TX	-4	-17	-31	-25	-43	-49	Plano, TX
Denton County, TX	-8	-20	-32	-24	-40	-42	Denton, TX
Williamson County, TX	1	-10	-21	-13	-31	-40	Round Rock, TX
Montgomery County, TX	-44	-51	-60	-52	-67	-64	The Woodlands, TX
El Paso County, TX	35	43	32	32	13	18	El Paso, TX
Galveston County, TX	-23	-24	-27	-19	-16	-11	League City, TX
Hays County, TX	11	-1	-10	-2	-14	-26	San Marcos, TX
Brazoria County, TX	-18	-24	-34	-30	-37	-36	Pearland, TX
Bell County, TX	-9	-15	-16	-10	-31	-32	Killeen, TX
Texas Total	-6	-9	-16	-11	-23	-21	3rd Tier Election