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2024 Election Map Scenarios


vcczar

2024 Election Map Scenarios  

16 members have voted

  1. 1. Did you look at all of my maps posted below?

  2. 2. Which map do you think is most likely to happen November 2024

  3. 3. Who do you hope wins, if one of the two had to win?

  4. 4. Who are you more likely to vote for?



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*Note: For all maps below, the lightly shaded states are the states that are truly battleground. No other states will flip unless Trump is convicted or if one of the two elderly candidates has a health crisis. These maps assume no conviction and no health crises. These maps also assume no RFK Jr surge. 

Considering it is impossible for Biden to be less likable than Hillary Clinton, and considering Trump faced Clinton and has faced Biden before, we can make an easy assumption that Biden will perform somewhere between his 2020 #s and Clinton's 2016 numbers. Biden will likely perform worse in 2024 than 2020. 

Map #1: The likeliest map if Biden has a really bad day

mrY4P.png

 

Map #2: The likliest Biden defeat map. Biden holds his homestate PA and keeps NE-2. 

jgkwe.png

Map #3: Likliest Biden victory, and the most predictable map. Possibly, the most likely election case scenario of all of these maps. My biggest argument against it is that it is almost too predictable. 

ddYrp.png

Map 4: An unusual, but possible, narrow Biden victory. Fast-growing, urbanizing AZ and NC barely tip toward Biden, saving him as he narrowly loses PA and WI

BDEKv.png

Map #5: This is a weird result in which Gov. DeSantis becomes increasingly unpopular, as do his radical policies. Miami comes out for Biden as much as it did for Clinton, tipping the state for Biden. This is a surprise result as Trump was expected to win it and take home the victory. Several recounts uphold Biden's victory by only a couple hundred votes. 

3GEOP.png

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Here's the margin for every state in every 21st century presidential election:

State Results 2020 2016 2012 2008 2004 2000
  Joe Biden Hillary Clinton Barack Obama Barack Obama John Kerry Al Gore
EVs 74 -77 126 192 -35 -5
PVs 4 2 4 7 -2 0
AL -25 -28 -22 -22 -26 -15
AK -10 -15 -14 -22 -26 -31
AZ 0 -4 -9 -8 -10 -6
AR -28 -27 -24 -20 -10 -5
CA 29 30 23 24 10 12
CO 13 5 5 9 -5 -8
CT 20 14 17 22 10 17
DE 19 11 19 25 8 13
DC 87 87 84 86 80 76
FL -3 -1 1 3 -5 0
GA 0 -5 -8 -5 -17 -12
HI 30 32 43 45 9 18
ID -31 -32 -32 -25 -38 -40
IL 17 17 17 25 10 12
IN -16 -19 -10 0 -21 -16
IA -8 -9 6 10 0 0
KS -15 -21 -12 -15 -25 -21
KY -26 -30 -23 -16 -20 -15
LA -19 -20 -17 -19 -15 -8
ME 9 3 15 17 9 5
MD 33 26 26 25 13 16
MA 33 27 23 26 25 27
MI 3 0 9 18 3 5
MN 7 2 8 10 4 2
MS -17 -18 -11 -13 -20 -17
MO -15 -19 -9 0 -7 -3
MT -16 -20 -14 -2 -21 -25
NE -19 -25 -22 -15 -33 -29
NV 2 2 7 12 -3 -4
NH 7 0 6 10 1 -1
NJ 16 14 18 16 7 16
NM 11 8 10 15 -1 0
NY 23 22 18 27 18 25
NC -1 -4 -2 0 -12 -13
ND -33 -37 -20 -9 -27 -28
OH -8 -8 3 4 -2 -4
OK -33 -36 -34 -31 -31 -22
OR 16 11 12 16 4 0
PA 1 -1 5 10 3 4
RI 21 15 28 28 21 29
SC -12 -14 -10 -9 -17 -16
SD -26 -30 -18 -8 -21 -23
TN -23 -26 -20 -15 -14 -4
TX -6 -9 -16 -12 -23 -21
UT -20 -18 -48 -28 -46 -40
VT 35 26 36 37 20 10
VA 10 5 4 6 -8 -8
WA 19 16 15 17 7 6
WV -39 -42 -27 -13 -13 -6
WI 1 -1 7 14 0 0
WY -43 -46 -40 -32 -40 -40
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Biden's stance on Israel is defiantly going to hurt him for 2024, That is why I predict a lean Trump victory atm. Young voters already weren't excited about Biden, now they especially aren't, and also Arab-Americans losing support. With 2024 being a year of the slightest of margins, that is bad for Biden. 

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1 hour ago, themiddlepolitical said:

Biden's stance on Israel is defiantly going to hurt him for 2024, That is why I predict a lean Trump victory atm. Young voters already weren't excited about Biden, now they especially aren't, and also Arab-Americans losing support. With 2024 being a year of the slightest of margins, that is bad for Biden. 

Trump would be even more that bad direction b/c of Evangelical influence. 

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22 hours ago, vcczar said:

Trump would be even more that bad direction b/c of Evangelical influence. 

Agreed, But in terms of the Gen Z electorate I think it's a "no more excuses" type electorate, and would rather Biden lose, Then have more of the disappointment of the same. That is what I have noticed with political organizing, and polling shows that as well

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2 hours ago, themiddlepolitical said:

Agreed, But in terms of the Gen Z electorate I think it's a "no more excuses" type electorate, and would rather Biden lose, Then have more of the disappointment of the same. That is what I have noticed with political organizing, and polling shows that as well

That’s the kind of suicidal voting mentality I hate. Makes no damn sense. I oppose Biden on this issue, but Trump would be worse at it and worse on about 99% of other things. There’s not alternative that can get 270 EVs. So basically Gen Z liberals are willfully fucking over the country if they don’t vote for Biden over this. 

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1 hour ago, vcczar said:

That’s the kind of suicidal voting mentality I hate. Makes no damn sense. I oppose Biden on this issue, but Trump would be worse at it and worse on about 99% of other things. There’s not alternative that can get 270 EVs. So basically Gen Z liberals are willfully fucking over the country if they don’t vote for Biden over this. 

I still don't understand where they're coming from. They dislike Biden's approach to things... so they're happy to let someone way worse win? I think lots of them just haven't fully developed a sense of logic yet. They claim to care about minority (in the current paradigm, mainly LGBT) rights, yet they'd let Republicans, more homophobic than they've been since 2015, win because they dislike Biden's approach to the most nuanced war in decades? Just a bunch of hypocritical, privileged crybabies if you ask me. If they fuck this up, they deserve what's coming.

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27 minutes ago, Rezi said:

I still don't understand where they're coming from. They dislike Biden's approach to things... so they're happy to let someone way worse win? I think lots of them just haven't fully developed a sense of logic yet. They claim to care about minority (in the current paradigm, mainly LGBT) rights, yet they'd let Republicans, more homophobic than they've been since 2015, win because they dislike Biden's approach to the most nuanced war in decades? Just a bunch of hypocritical, privileged crybabies if you ask me. If they fuck this up, they deserve what's coming.

 

4 hours ago, themiddlepolitical said:

Agreed, But in terms of the Gen Z electorate I think it's a "no more excuses" type electorate, and would rather Biden lose, Then have more of the disappointment of the same. That is what I have noticed with political organizing, and polling shows that as well

I unfortunately will have to agree with you. I as first generation Arab American and gen Z, there is a large chunk who is more focused on issue instead of candidates. But I do have to also say there a lot more that recognize the swing voting and "lesser of two evils", overwhelming majority young people will be voting for biden ( from a MA state and others such as WI and MI). While arab americans are most likely going to be split as some are still cons from LGBT issues and some leftist ones will be also away because of Gaza attacks. 

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9 hours ago, Rezi said:

I still don't understand where they're coming from. They dislike Biden's approach to things... so they're happy to let someone way worse win? I think lots of them just haven't fully developed a sense of logic yet. They claim to care about minority (in the current paradigm, mainly LGBT) rights, yet they'd let Republicans, more homophobic than they've been since 2015, win because they dislike Biden's approach to the most nuanced war in decades? Just a bunch of hypocritical, privileged crybabies if you ask me. If they fuck this up, they deserve what's coming.

This is how I felt about Bernie or Bust voters. I voted for him in the primaries, and then Hillary Clinton in the general as I expected to do. Many wanted to punish America by allowing Trump to win.

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  • 2 weeks later...
3 minutes ago, theFreezerFlame said:

Why do none of these maps have blue GA?

Because a blue GA doesn’t fit the specific criteria for each of these maps. It would require Biden having a good day. These are all tight races and losses. GA is sadly polling strongly for Trump right now, more so than AZ. 

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