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Haley vs Trump, 2024 Republican Primary


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I have been reading alot of articles about this upcoming primary season, and have come to the conclusion that I agree that the real (possible) competition is Haley vs Trump, not DeSantis vs Trump. Take this scenario

Iowa: 

Trump finishes slightly worse than expected (Low 40's or high 30's)

Haley comes in second versus DeSantis - Say she breaks into the mid-high 20's. 

 

New Hampshire: Haley is currently polling extremely strong here

Haley gets a boost from media attention, the shock factor of Iowa etc. she beats trump in NH

 

Nevada is weird this year so lets skip to South Carolina -However- at this point Trump may realize he has to debate, so we could see the first Trump debate at this point if not before NH.

 

It then comes down to SC, I think if Haley can win her home state, it will make Super Tuesday competitive -especially- if she convinces DeSantis to drop out and endorse her. After or before SC. 

 

Thoughts of this possibility?

 

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1 hour ago, themiddlepolitical said:

It then comes down to SC, I think if Haley can win her home state, it will make Super Tuesday competitive -especially- if she convinces DeSantis to drop out and endorse her. After or before SC. 

I doubt DeSantis would endorse her. He's closer to Trump ideologically, and if Trump is the nominee, win or lose, 2028 is open for Ron to try again. If Haley did somehow get the nomination, she'd be favored in the general and the next open R primary wouldn't be til 2032

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5 hours ago, themiddlepolitical said:

I have been reading alot of articles about this upcoming primary season, and have come to the conclusion that I agree that the real (possible) competition is Haley vs Trump, not DeSantis vs Trump. Take this scenario

Iowa: 

Trump finishes slightly worse than expected (Low 40's or high 30's)

Haley comes in second versus DeSantis - Say she breaks into the mid-high 20's. 

 

New Hampshire: Haley is currently polling extremely strong here

Haley gets a boost from media attention, the shock factor of Iowa etc. she beats trump in NH

 

Nevada is weird this year so lets skip to South Carolina -However- at this point Trump may realize he has to debate, so we could see the first Trump debate at this point if not before NH.

 

It then comes down to SC, I think if Haley can win her home state, it will make Super Tuesday competitive -especially- if she convinces DeSantis to drop out and endorse her. After or before SC. 

 

Thoughts of this possibility?

 

 

4 hours ago, ShortKing said:

I doubt DeSantis would endorse her. He's closer to Trump ideologically, and if Trump is the nominee, win or lose, 2028 is open for Ron to try again. If Haley did somehow get the nomination, she'd be favored in the general and the next open R primary wouldn't be til 2032

Yeah DeSantis 99% endorses Trump. Best case scenario is Haley wins NH and gets a ton of endorsers and forces Trump into a debate. She has to destroy him in that debate. I think Christie can really help by being even more of an attack dog for Haley. I think being nice to Trump does nothing. She needs to empathize with his voters but attack Trump. 

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2 hours ago, vcczar said:

 

Yeah DeSantis 99% endorses Trump. Best case scenario is Haley wins NH and gets a ton of endorsers and forces Trump into a debate. She has to destroy him in that debate. I think Christie can really help by being even more of an attack dog for Haley. I think being nice to Trump does nothing. She needs to empathize with his voters but attack Trump. 

I think at the EOD what could mess up Haley in IA is Christie and Hutchinson being in the race, Even that 4% could put her in 2nd, If she gets 3rd I think Trumps a lock. I just see no way of Desantis winning. He is doing terrible in NH and doesn't have the benefit of SC being his home state. I keep seeing alot of comparisons of it possibly playing out like 2000 did with Bush vs McCain 

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Well, Christie just dropped. I think now I'd move Iowa from having DeSantis slightly favored for 2nd to having Haley slightly favored for 2nd. New Hampshire goes from 95/5 Trump/Haley to 90/10.

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1 hour ago, Rezi said:

Well, Christie just dropped. I think now I'd move Iowa from having DeSantis slightly favored for 2nd to having Haley slightly favored for 2nd. New Hampshire goes from 95/5 Trump/Haley to 90/10.

He was also caught on tape saying Haley "will get smoked," which might hurt Haley. Trump and DeSantis are probably already using the soundclip.

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While I am happy that Christie is finally bringing his ego trip to become President of New Hampshire to a close, and would love for the contest to be narrowed down to Haley vs. Trump, I don't see that happening. DeSantis has spent most of his campaign in Iowa for the past couple months, so a second place victory may very well give him an excuse to stick around. This may be speculation on my part, but I suspect that DeSantis would not be interested in aligning with Haley because she "stole his thunder". Also, even if DeSantis, Christie, and Hutchinson back out and endorse Haley, Ramaswamy will stay in the race to serve as Trump's attack dog/surrogate. New Hampshire may be a winning opportunity for Haley, but I don't think good press will be enough to take down Trump's de-facto power of incumbency.  

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The issue I see down the line is that even if Haley upsets in New Hampshire, the state's primary electorate is so uniquely primed for her candidacy (educated, white, moderate, large percentage independent), that she'll immediately run into trouble competing in the far larger cast of states with demographics more favorable to Trump, i.e. more conservative and less educated, including her home state of South Carolina. I agree with TMP that we're heading into 2000-type primary dynamics, where Haley has the chance to pick off New Hampshire and a few other states, but simply faces an overwhelming demographic disadvantage in most of the country. 

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25 minutes ago, pilight said:

It's very possible for Haley to upset Trump in New Hampshire after a good showing in Iowa.  Trump's poll numbers are soft and could drop severely if Haley gets some momentum.

I can't see Haley doing well after NH, however. Half her supporters, according to a poll, will vote for Biden over Trump. Her primary ceiling is pretty low. She'll do well in Blue and and lean-Blue Purple states, but she's going to get obliterated in SC, FL, TX, etc. I think she drops out after she loses her homestate SC. I think DeSantis drops out and supports Trump after IA. I think Vivek does the same. 

I think the polls will hopefully shift to Biden once Trump is definitely the nominee for the GOP. 

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31 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I can't see Haley doing well after NH, however. Half her supporters, according to a poll, will vote for Biden over Trump. Her primary ceiling is pretty low. She'll do well in Blue and and lean-Blue Purple states, but she's going to get obliterated in SC, FL, TX, etc. I think she drops out after she loses her homestate SC. I think DeSantis drops out and supports Trump after IA. I think Vivek does the same. 

I think the polls will hopefully shift to Biden once Trump is definitely the nominee for the GOP. 

I think polls will shift around +3  towards Biden after Trump is the basically declared nominee

Edited by themiddlepolitical
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  • 2 weeks later...
13 hours ago, pilight said:

Haley has to win South Carolina to stay viable

New Hampshire was her best shot demographically, and she barely outperformed the polls and still lost by 11 points. The next four weeks will basically be a one-state campaign in SC, and if she doesn't pull off something historic there, donors will pull the plug. 

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