Jump to content
The Political Lounge

Historical Pres Election Matchups March Madness


vcczar

Recommended Posts

Note: All elections will use the 2020 map. Results are based on the historical % margins between the two major parties. If a state does not exist during a historical election, I will use the data for the first election in which that state did vote. 

Battle #1:

JFK vs. Eisenhower (1952)

JFK gets wiped out! 

image.png.d7078dc62d944f4854a0623b2cded8f9.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Battle #2: McGovern vs. Bush (2004)

McGovern outperforms his historical landslide defeat against Nixon, mostly due to Bush's poor showing in NY compared to McGovern's more narrow defeat in NY. 

image.png.3ab1b8780f7851116b71c7c57235b423.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Battle 3: Biden (2020) vs Taft

Biden is helped by the Solid South strongly opposing Taft. The historical Southern voters detested Taft more than the contemporary Southern voters detested Biden.

image.png.58fb7f62457c70ad661b28e6f75539f7.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Battle 4: Tilden vs Lincoln (1860)

Lincoln was much stronger against Tilden than Hayes. FL is probably the strangest part of this matchup, and Lincoln is certainly helped here by Reconstruction laws.

 

image.png.7ff7e6b79e35f93627c84dc9c7a354e7.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Battle 5: Clinton (1992) vs Romney

Romney still loses, but he performed better against Clinton than Obama. Clinton shows some strength by taking MO. Romney is helped by Bush having won FL in 1992. 

image.png.336d7d40925098b922f307fde82846ba.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Battle 8: Gore vs. McKinley (1896)

This is the first election in this matchup in which a historical winner loses to a historical loser. McKinley loses primarily for two reasons: 1) EVs have shifted to states where Gore won or kept the election close; 2) This weird election shows Bryan's Western populist strength, which cripples McKinley in this matchup.

image.png.4e51955fde6c5721a0502cfda84a157f.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Battle 9: Truman vs Goldwater

Truman out-LBJs LBJ! This sort of just goes to show you how unpopular Goldwater's nomination was. Truman was caught in a close election, and he still walloped Goldwater!

image.png.8a3497c2b09a93e45bfa72c39cc54039.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Battle 10: McClellan vs McKinley (1900)

McCellan performed better than I thought he would. McKinley is aided in TN & MO somewhat by Reconstruction policies and votes by the remaining pro-Union members of these states. 

image.png.1d8460c919cc2e7a746001183480d1f6.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Battle 11: Obama (2012) vs Roosevelt (1904)

This is Obama's weaker general election, but he still put up a good fight against a landslide victor, albeit many of his votes came from historical voters who would refuse to vote for Obama because of both his race and his full name. 

image.png.2654ca190d357338399cd10570445e4d.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Battle 12: Douglas vs Hoover (1932)

Douglas gets an assist both from FDR demolishing Hoover historically and from Lincoln being stripped from ballots in several states, leaving the Solid South from Douglas, who was historically weak there. 

image.png.74489f3aaa43a75eae0aaeadfefaa5f4.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Battle 13: Buchanan vs McCain

Buchanan wins in an unexpected landslide. This is due in part to McCain having been weaker in states like NY, PA, and IL than Buchanan was in his election against Fremont. 

image.png.0223480e0a238b076ddb6332f59dc39a.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Battle 14: Clinton (2016) vs Grant (1872)

This is historically a landslide victory for Grant, so Hillary Clinton did pretty well. In fact, while calculating this I thought there was a chance she'd win an upset, but it didn't turn out to be the case. She put up a good fight. 

image.png.5c24d94e778276174c12bc961a5e57f2.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Battle 15: Bryan (1896) vs Harding

Bryan performed a lot better against Harding than Cox did, but Harding's historic landslide still gives him a more than convicing victory in this scenario. KY and OK were both close enough for recounts but that wouldn't have changed the outcome. 

image.png.ebb1f4fc93a8a8708128a78330c93855.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Battle 16: Obama (2008) vs Trump (2016)

Obama gets a convincing victory against Trump, although not landslide as he had against McCain. Obama's performance in IA and FL was much stronger than Trump's performance in these areas, which might surprise some.

image.png.21088c52ce9e289e9f6b5706f13e6f93.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Battle 17: Bryan (1900) vs Hughes

Crazy to think that Bryan wins this when Hughes historically lost a closer race than Bryan. However, Bryan's strong areas were then sparsely populated but are now much more populated. Having both TX and FL is huge. That Bryan won OH over Hughes is a surprise. 

image.png.b7fab7ab16d38f2c36ef6c51b12babb5.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Battle 19: FDR (1936) vs Eisenhower (1956)

This pits two historical landslides and FDR landslides Eisenhower. It wasn't even close. Eisenhower greatly outperforms Landon. It's interesting to see how relatively weak FDR was in New England and much of the Mid-Atlantic. FDR loses his home state. 

image.png.d3ad29a361ef3e5873762f6764f1fb0a.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Battle 20: Stevenson (1956) vs Wilkie

This was a close matchup that looked as if Wilkie was going to win for much of it. The election was down to two states that were nailbiters: WA and DE. It could have been a 269-269 tie had they gone for Wilkie.

image.png.46744e959d7fda4ec6e9e2a0a4fc6233.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Battle 21: Carter (1976) vs Blaine

This election is a lot closer than it looks. The race was down to VA and NJ, both states that could have gone either way. If Blaine wasn't so weak in NY (because he historically faced Cleveland), this would have put him over the edge. 

image.png.a82cc9cfa4e77d5965fcac88855eccb4.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Battle 22: Cleveland (1892) vs Bush (1988)

It's crazy to think that Bush's 1988 landslide barely defeats Cleveland's 2nd non-consec victory. This is a weird map. Both KY and NM could have gone either way here. So that's three nailbiting election matchups in a row. 

image.png.5a9a06b3099d64dc62210d4b755c173a.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...