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Trump campaigning in New York


DakotaHale

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Trump has announced rallies in New York and appears to be legitimately campaigning there on the current migrant issues. Polls show Biden leading by 9% in the state (very comfortable but less than usual for a Democrat; plus the recent Lee Zeldin election may have been too close for comfort for Democrats). Am I crazy to say that it could be a state to watch in the election?

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6 minutes ago, DakotaHale said:

Am I crazy to say that it could be a state to watch in the election?

Yes

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8 hours ago, DakotaHale said:

Trump has announced rallies in New York and appears to be legitimately campaigning there on the current migrant issues. Polls show Biden leading by 9% in the state (very comfortable but less than usual for a Democrat; plus the recent Lee Zeldin election may have been too close for comfort for Democrats). Am I crazy to say that it could be a state to watch in the election?

I’d say Trump has like a 1% chance of winning NY. Something like 64% of the entire state lives in NYC area or commutes in or out. My guess is the remaining 9% Trump would need is fairly inflexible since these people often survive on Democratic policies.  It’s not like a typical 9% gap. I think any campaigning in NY probably has more to do with fundraising. 

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5 hours ago, vcczar said:

I’d say Trump has like a 1% chance of winning NY. Something like 64% of the entire state lives in NYC area or commutes in or out. My guess is the remaining 9% Trump would need is fairly inflexible since these people often survive on Democratic policies.  It’s not like a typical 9% gap. I think any campaigning in NY probably has more to do with fundraising. 

The NYC suburbs are shifting right, and if Trump replicates Zeldin's numbers, he could come very close. NGL I think this is for house seats.

Honestly, Zeldin being Trump's VP pick isn't far out of left field.

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16 minutes ago, theFreezerFlame said:

The NYC suburbs are shifting right, and if Trump replicates Zeldin's numbers, he could come very close. NGL I think this is for house seats.

Honestly, Zeldin being Trump's VP pick isn't far out of left field.

It would have to be a MUCH larger shift. Suffolk County---his district--was a historically GOP district, that shift Democrat in only the last 5 presidential elections. Trump did win it twice, but it actually shifted towards Democrats in 2020.  It went from Trump +7 to a virtual tie -- Trump +0.03 to be exact. That's not a good sign Trump. Reagan was the last GOPer to win NY and he had to win Suffolk Country by +33 to do that. Reagan also won 27% of NYC, while Trump can manage only 12%. Trump would like have to replicate 33% and inflate similar support from the NY suburbs. That's not going to happen. NY is solid blue in presidential elections and there's absolutely no evidence Trump can get the kind of support he needs in NY in less than a year. Perhaps a Republican will win NY in the 21st century, but it's got ways to go. TX will be won by a Democrat well before NY is won by a Republican. 

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Anybody that thinks Trump will win over D+20 states is crazy. Same way I feel about people who think Trump can win the popular vote this time. Dudes lost it twice and the GOP hasn't won the national popular vote in a presidential election since 2004. Once again, MAGA can hate on her all they want, Nikki Haley is the only candidate talking about actual issues. 

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4 hours ago, Pringles said:

Anybody that thinks Trump will win over D+20 states is crazy. Same way I feel about people who think Trump can win the popular vote this time. Dudes lost it twice and the GOP hasn't won the national popular vote in a presidential election since 2004. Once again, MAGA can hate on her all they want, Nikki Haley is the only candidate talking about actual issues. 

I would take Biden, RFK or Trump over Haley easily. Warmongering neocons need to die out. The US can exert power on a global scale without endless proxy wars across the globe.

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1 hour ago, DakotaHale said:

I would take Biden, RFK or Trump over Haley easily. Warmongering neocons need to die out. The US can exert power on a global scale without endless proxy wars across the globe.

If being steadfast in support of Ukraine, cutting foreign aid to human rights violators, ceasing to treat them with kids' gloves, supporting Taiwan and our Asian allies, and retaliation against Iran & Iranian backed groups attacking us count as acts of a warmongering Neocon; I consider the label a compliment. Very much so to the alternative. Maybe one-day people will realize whether you like it or not, these "Neo-Cons" are very much part of the reason Democrats are performing so well these last few election cycles. If the GOP has any hope of securing its future as a functioning political unit, one of the first steps it will need to take is winning those voters back. 

Right now it's a simple math game, one that it has been on the losing side of for nearly 20 years. 

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On 2/6/2024 at 1:42 AM, Pringles said:

If being steadfast in support of Ukraine, cutting foreign aid to human rights violators, ceasing to treat them with kids' gloves, supporting Taiwan and our Asian allies, and retaliation against Iran & Iranian backed groups attacking us count as acts of a warmongering Neocon; I consider the label a compliment. Very much so to the alternative. Maybe one-day people will realize whether you like it or not, these "Neo-Cons" are very much part of the reason Democrats are performing so well these last few election cycles. If the GOP has any hope of securing its future as a functioning political unit, one of the first steps it will need to take is winning those voters back. 

Right now it's a simple math game, one that it has been on the losing side of for nearly 20 years. 

I don't disagree with the majority of this but I just think it'd be ebic if we could defend our own border as well as Israel and Ukraine's (I also want to avoid escalations or committed US ground troops which I think Haley will send gladly; I don't mind military equipment aid or extremely minimal financial aid).

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On 2/4/2024 at 11:48 PM, DakotaHale said:

Am I crazy to say that it could be a state to watch in the election?

That depends.  Does "New York" have some new, hip definition that I am not familiar with, or does it still mean the state that hasn't voted for a Republican candidate in 40 years?  

;c)

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3 minutes ago, MrPotatoTed said:

HEY!

I'm RIGHT HERE!

;c)

You and me buddy, warmongering brothers from another mother. (Since we are in different parties but we probably have a surprisingly similar voting record presidentially.) 😛

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16 hours ago, Pringles said:

You and me buddy, warmongering brothers from another mother. (Since we are in different parties but we probably have a surprisingly similar voting record presidentially.) 😛

Don't forget me! 😛 I think the only thing for which I have constantly voted in favor in various polls here, was raising the military budget.  

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