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Nate Silver's Forecast for 2024 so Far


vcczar

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Nate Silver has a substack that I recomment, and this is where I'm getting this information from. 

He thinks Biden is on a losing trajectory, primarily because 86% of people think he's too old, while they don't think the same of Trump, who is nearly as old as Biden. Silver thinks this will matter in battleground states. 

Silver also states that he thought Biden should have declined to run for reelection back in November because of this same issue. No matter what good Biden does, his approval doesn't increase because of the age factor, presumably. 

As such, Silver thinks Biden needs to take the risk of proving that he isn't too old. Silver thought it was a mistake for Biden to skip the Super Bowl Interview. Here's what Silver thinks Biden must do if he wants to win:

**from Nate Silver's substack below**

A simple challenge to the White House

So could I, other critics and 75 percent of Americans be wrong about this? Sure. I'm wrong about a lot of things. But if we're wrong about this, it ought to be easy to prove it.

Here's what I'd propose. Over the course of the next several weeks, Biden should do four lengthy sitdown interviews with “non-friendly” sources. “Non-friendly” doesn't mean hostile: nonpartisan reporters with a track record of asking tough questions would work great. A complete recording of the interviews should be made public. The interviews ought to include a mix of different media (e.g. television and print) and journalistic perspectives. For instance, Biden could pick these four:

  • A lengthy sitdown interview with the Washington bureaus of the New York Times or Washington Post.

  • An interview with 60 Minutes, making up for the interview Biden ought to have done with CBS during the Super Bowl.

  • An interview with some sort of center-right print or digital outlet. This could be say the Wall Street Journal op-ed page, or even a team of writers at The Dispatch.

  • Wild card. Take your pick. Bonus points for Fox News, though I doubt Biden would do it. Go on Ezra Klein's podcast? Go on Rogan? Just kidding, I think. But Bernie Sanders did it.

This really isn't too much to ask. These are the sorts of interviews that every other recent president has done. I admit that I'm asking Biden to pack in several in a row, but he has to make up for lost time. And the timing is urgent because he and his inner circle have to make sure that he's really up for a second term and that this is the best option for Democrats. If Biden was willing to take five hours to speak with Hur, he ought to to take five hours for this. And if he can't, it's awfully audacious to ask Americans to make him president for another four years.

Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. 

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I would have agreed with this more if not for how the press conference over the Hur Report went. He was mostly cogent and sharp during the press conference, but the wear of age was apparent even during his best moments, and his mistake calling Sisi the President of Mexico grabbed headlines for confirming a number of claims in the report. Moreover, further reporting suggests that Biden's main point of anger during the conference, being asked about Beau Biden, didn't even occur and that Joe himself raised Beau during the interview and could not recall within a number of years when Beau passed. For these reasons, I think the more he puts himself out there, the more he just confirms the concerns of an electorate that thinks he might not be up to the job anymore. 

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I do not believe the party that had the best midterm result since 2002 is on track for defeat against the party putting up a guy who’s about to have no money… among other legal issues. Not a fan of Nate Silver anyways. I’ll put my faith Allan Lichtman this summer.

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Don't think Biden is on track for defeat, necessarily, but he's not in a great spot. His greatest ally, at this point, is the fact that the mainstream alternative Democratic options manage to be less electable than an 81 year old.

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On 2/19/2024 at 10:04 AM, vcczar said:

Nate Silver has a substack that I recomment, and this is where I'm getting this information from. 

He thinks Biden is on a losing trajectory, primarily because 86% of people think he's too old, while they don't think the same of Trump, who is nearly as old as Biden. Silver thinks this will matter in battleground states. 

Silver also states that he thought Biden should have declined to run for reelection back in November because of this same issue. No matter what good Biden does, his approval doesn't increase because of the age factor, presumably. 

As such, Silver thinks Biden needs to take the risk of proving that he isn't too old. Silver thought it was a mistake for Biden to skip the Super Bowl Interview. Here's what Silver thinks Biden must do if he wants to win:

**from Nate Silver's substack below**

A simple challenge to the White House

So could I, other critics and 75 percent of Americans be wrong about this? Sure. I'm wrong about a lot of things. But if we're wrong about this, it ought to be easy to prove it.

Here's what I'd propose. Over the course of the next several weeks, Biden should do four lengthy sitdown interviews with “non-friendly” sources. “Non-friendly” doesn't mean hostile: nonpartisan reporters with a track record of asking tough questions would work great. A complete recording of the interviews should be made public. The interviews ought to include a mix of different media (e.g. television and print) and journalistic perspectives. For instance, Biden could pick these four:

  • A lengthy sitdown interview with the Washington bureaus of the New York Times or Washington Post.

  • An interview with 60 Minutes, making up for the interview Biden ought to have done with CBS during the Super Bowl.

  • An interview with some sort of center-right print or digital outlet. This could be say the Wall Street Journal op-ed page, or even a team of writers at The Dispatch.

  • Wild card. Take your pick. Bonus points for Fox News, though I doubt Biden would do it. Go on Ezra Klein's podcast? Go on Rogan? Just kidding, I think. But Bernie Sanders did it.

This really isn't too much to ask. These are the sorts of interviews that every other recent president has done. I admit that I'm asking Biden to pack in several in a row, but he has to make up for lost time. And the timing is urgent because he and his inner circle have to make sure that he's really up for a second term and that this is the best option for Democrats. If Biden was willing to take five hours to speak with Hur, he ought to to take five hours for this. And if he can't, it's awfully audacious to ask Americans to make him president for another four years.

Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. 

There’s no way that somebody is like, “I like Biden, but he’s pretty old…guess I’ll take another round of Donald Trump instead!”

 

Is Biden too old to be President?  Probably!

 

But Trump is too evil to be President.

 

Theyre not the same.

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1 minute ago, MrPotatoTed said:

There’s no way that somebody is like, “I like Biden, but he’s pretty old…guess I’ll take another round of Donald Trump instead!”

I don't think this is how they are phrasing this issue in their head. There's something going on because we have Trump typically beating Biden by +1 to +4 in general election polls. Four years ago, it was often Biden leading +10. That's a swing of 11 to 14 pts to Trump. It could be people who didn't vote in 2020. But i have to imagine that for some insane reason a notable number of people think being old is worse than being evil, at least subconsciously. 

That swing in the polls is basically what I'm wondering. I'm kind of thinking of my dad who would vote based almost exclusively if he was economically where he wanted to be. He rarely was, so he switched parties to vote pretty frequently. I think he voted Carter-Mondale-Dukakis-Clinton-Perot-Bush I (except for Carter, this string was all whoever was out of office). After 9/11, my dad got really religious and voted GOP because he thought the War on Terror and Iraq War were holy wars. My dad, had he lived (he died a month after the 2012 election), would have voted Trump, but I think if he were in pre-2001 form, he would have voted Kerry, Obama, Romney, Trump, Biden, Trump. Because if the present administration wasn't working for him, he just voted them out.

The backstory is that my dad was a multi-millionaire in the 1960s and most of the 1970s. He wasn't doing as well in the late 1970s and early 1980s, as he was earlier. By Reagan's 2nd term my dad was rapidly losing money and piling up on debts. He blamed Reagan for all of this. I barely remember my family having any money. By the 1988 election, my dad had lost all his money, and we lived in the nicest neighborhood in Dallas only because my grandparents helped pay the rent for arguably the cheapest rentable house in the neighorhood. I remember my dad would miss payments to pay for heating, and sometimes we had days with the windows frosting over. Our family car got repo'd. Etc. My dad spent the rest of his life trying to get his lost fortune with get-rich-quick schemes and things like. My mom ended up making more than him as a teacher. She never had to work when my dad was making money. Part of his strategy was to vote out presidents that didn't seem to boost his income magically. Basically, I think a lot of voters make decisions irrationally. Something is going on because these polls have swung strongly to Trump. The swing is so big that there must be some Biden-to-Trump people in there. 

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Just now, vcczar said:

I don't think this is how they are phrasing this issue in their head. There's something going on because we have Trump typically beating Biden by +1 to +4 in general election polls. Four years ago, it was often Biden leading +10. That's a swing of 11 to 14 pts to Trump. It could be people who didn't vote in 2020. But i have to imagine that for some insane reason a notable number of people think being old is worse than being evil, at least subconsciously. 

That swing in the polls is basically what I'm wondering. I'm kind of thinking of my dad who would vote based almost exclusively if he was economically where he wanted to be. He rarely was, so he switched parties to vote pretty frequently. I think he voted Carter-Mondale-Dukakis-Clinton-Perot-Bush I (except for Carter, this string was all whoever was out of office). After 9/11, my dad got really religious and voted GOP because he thought the War on Terror and Iraq War were holy wars. My dad, had he lived (he died a month after the 2012 election), would have voted Trump, but I think if he were in pre-2001 form, he would have voted Kerry, Obama, Romney, Trump, Biden, Trump. Because if the present administration wasn't working for him, he just voted them out.

The backstory is that my dad was a multi-millionaire in the 1960s and most of the 1970s. He wasn't doing as well in the late 1970s and early 1980s, as he was earlier. By Reagan's 2nd term my dad was rapidly losing money and piling up on debts. He blamed Reagan for all of this. I barely remember my family having any money. By the 1988 election, my dad had lost all his money, and we lived in the nicest neighborhood in Dallas only because my grandparents helped pay the rent for arguably the cheapest rentable house in the neighorhood. I remember my dad would miss payments to pay for heating, and sometimes we had days with the windows frosting over. Our family car got repo'd. Etc. My dad spent the rest of his life trying to get his lost fortune with get-rich-quick schemes and things like. My mom ended up making more than him as a teacher. She never had to work when my dad was making money. Part of his strategy was to vote out presidents that didn't seem to boost his income magically. Basically, I think a lot of voters make decisions irrationally. Something is going on because these polls have swung strongly to Trump. The swing is so big that there must be some Biden-to-Trump people in there. 

I mean, you know I was a proud Bush supporter and also a proud Obama supporter, and I even considered going as far back as Rick Perry in 2016 before settling on Hillary.  So it’s not like the idea of switching parties is foreign to me.

And I don’t doubt at all that Trump can win — of course he can, he’s done it before.

But I don’t think it has anything to do with Biden or his age.  I think people have gotten comfortable and insulated from the constant stream of Trump insanity while he’s been out of office and they’ve largely forgotten/aren’t paying attention yet.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, MrPotatoTed said:

I think people have gotten comfortable and insulated from the constant stream of Trump insanity while he’s been out of office and they’ve largely forgotten/aren’t paying attention yet.

I feel like he's never left. There's more Trump on the news and on social media than Biden. I hope they can tell me how they're insulated from it because I want to stop seeing and hearing him. 

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1 minute ago, vcczar said:

I feel like he's never left. There's more Trump on the news and on social media than Biden. I hope they can tell me how they're insulated from it because I want to stop seeing and hearing him. 

Well, for starters, I think news viewership is wildly lower — no Covid, no fear of what Trump might say or do next in office, cut cords, etc.

Twitter used to also be the way a lot of us heard about the latest nut job thing he did, and most people fled that after Elon.

I don’t see or hear from him at all anymore.

 

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49 minutes ago, MrPotatoTed said:

There’s no way that somebody is like, “I like Biden, but he’s pretty old…guess I’ll take another round of Donald Trump instead!”

I think the meat of the issue is that voters see Biden as incompetent, and their perception of him as old compounds that. A slightly different formulation but I think the nuance matters.

Biden ran on restoring order and for his first few months in office, voters gave him high marks and a degree of trust that he was the man for the job. Then the Afghanistan debacle and covid surge happened, along with a number of other smaller issues that compounded into a narrative of everything coming apart (the baby formula shortage still sticks out to me), and the result was that voters saw crisis after crisis and no order. Inflation, the war in Ukraine, now the war in Gaza, crises continue to unfold, very few of them directly Biden's fault, but voters still take issue with what they see as the man in charge letting these crises unfold. 

Even as certain issues, like inflation for example, seem to be improving, maybe even solved, voters don't really give Biden the credit because their perception of him is that he's just not up to the job of tackling these big problems. 

I still anticipate Biden wins in the end, but if he does lose, I think the issue is less age per se and more that in 2020, Trump was evil and Biden was just old, and by 2024, voters saw Trump as evil and Biden as old and incompetent. 

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