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VCCZAR's 2024 Forecast (The 1st one -- March 8)


vcczar

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Here's my first 2024 forecast coming from my algorithm that accurately predicted the 2020 election. This algorithm doesn't become "accurate" until it has 100 days worth of data, and this is the first day of data. That means late June is when this thing will seem like it is taking the election seriously.

I'll do one post per week because I look at average polls weekly until we get to the general election, then I input polling data daily. 

The main factor in the forecast is momentum. If a state is clearly trending Biden or Trump, even if they are losing that state in the polls, there's a chance the algorithm will show a narrow victory. In 2020, I was surprised that the algorithm showed AZ and GA going Biden because I personally thought Trump would win those states. 

Other factors than state and national polling are factored. I take into account, favorability, appproval, generic ballot, direction of the country, and betting markets. When we get to election day, I add the election day factors, which includes a bunch of other factors, mostly demographic, econ factor, any rumors of voter suppression, weather, rumors of high or low turnout, alleged polling bias, polling margin vs previous election, 3rd party factor, high early voting, and some other things that just slightly adjust the number. Somehow the combination of all of this produced a map that beat all of the pundit maps on election day. It is possible I just got lucky. 

We can expect more 3rd party votes than usual, so this will probably make predicting this election more difficult for everyone. 

Below is the March 8th Map. NE-2 an ME-2 are just guesses because there isn't enough polling:

image.png.809eca52526f0cea6de08759fbb8cf21.png

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36 minutes ago, ConservativeElector2 said:

Have you accidentally mixed up the colors in Maine with it's district EV, or does the algorithm really predict the state going to Trump at this point? 

Trump +2.2 sadly. 

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Personally, I think if the election were held today that Biden would win ME (at large) and PA. I think protest voters hand MI to Trump if the election were held today. 

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There's a lot I could say, but I don't have the time nor do you all want to read a 20 volume set.  I'll just lead with predicting one election is still less accurate than a stopped clock, which gets to be right twice, so I'm skeptical.  That said, I'm skeptical of most polls/takes right now, so this isn't a unique jab at your map or anything.

For some actual takes I think for advice on March 8 we need to keep in mind the following.

1)  Polls/the race are about to realign with Haley having dropped out and it now being 100% certain it's Biden v Trump.  It may not seem like a paradigm shift, but it is, and it's too soon after super Tuesday for any data to reflect that.

2)  I think this cycle is going to be reverse coat tails instead of the usual coat tails, with both local candidates helping the top of the ticket instead of the reverse, and in that, Dems have had an edge that's been consistently overlooked.

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9 minutes ago, OrangeP47 said:

There's a lot I could say, but I don't have the time nor do you all want to read a 20 volume set.  I'll just lead with predicting one election is still less accurate than a stopped clock, which gets to be right twice, so I'm skeptical.  That said, I'm skeptical of most polls/takes right now, so this isn't a unique jab at your map or anything.

For some actual takes I think for advice on March 8 we need to keep in mind the following.

1)  Polls/the race are about to realign with Haley having dropped out and it now being 100% certain it's Biden v Trump.  It may not seem like a paradigm shift, but it is, and it's too soon after super Tuesday for any data to reflect that.

2)  I think this cycle is going to be reverse coat tails instead of the usual coat tails, with both local candidates helping the top of the ticket instead of the reverse, and in that, Dems have had an edge that's been consistently overlooked.

I think some of this will come into effect post-convention. As stated in my long post--the March 8th poll won't be accurate, and there won't be any "accuracy" until I get 100 days of polling data, then we will see substantial trends. 

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Just a quick map made on my phone in about five minutes, but this is my current prediction for November. I don’t put any weight into polls, so this is based off of my own gut, and an inspection of the facts of this election outside of polling. And for what it’s worth, I think the Democrats are going to hold their own in the Senate this year.

IMG_1990.png.9102493a3de6951068d62af3b486a661.png

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I guess I should establish my baseline as well, generally because I am optimistic, but not THAT optimistic.  I have not colored WI, as that is the one state I am unsure about, but it doesn't actually matter for a Biden win.  Also, I think NC and even FL might flip before GA (NC before FL) (In the event any of those go dem, WI is dem as well)

image.png.ffe9731900135df16cfe9c48c4c2416d.png

 

Edited by OrangeP47
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I should elaborate too, let me make this point 3)

Certain state level GOPs are broke.  Specifically MI and AZ (this is largely due to lawsuits over fake electors).  They have no money for GOTV or groundgame.  I'm pretty confident of dem wins there as a result.  GA and WI state level GOP are in much better shape, though, so that's why I rate them stronger republican chances.

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Expanding on @WVProgressive's Map. 

I think Utah is going to be interesting on election night. Biden got the highest vote share for a Democrat in a LONG time there in 2020. The state GOP is not a fan of Trump, and Governor Cox didn't endorse him in 2020. In terms of margins, I see it falling out of the traditionally lopsided range. 

image.png.942a4eeb06244b5d7b765f8bb9f2abda.png

Edited by Pringles
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@vcczar this is the most unpredictable election since 1948 likely

Trump could be convicted before election day and the impact is unsure

How many republicans will stop voting for Trump especially "Haley" voters compared to 2016 and 2020

Each nominee could have a sudden health issue

How many people were not saying they vote for Biden due to his age perception and the situation in Gaza but will ultimately go back to vote

Those datas say there is way too much uncertainty. I think it could be the most unexpected election since 1988 and for an incumbent the most unexpected one since 1948. In terms of unknown future swings of course.

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19 hours ago, OrangeP47 said:

I guess I should establish my baseline as well, generally because I am optimistic, but not THAT optimistic.  I have not colored WI, as that is the one state I am unsure about, but it doesn't actually matter for a Biden win.  Also, I think NC and even FL might flip before GA (NC before FL) (In the event any of those go dem, WI is dem as well)

image.png.ffe9731900135df16cfe9c48c4c2416d.png

 

I agree with this map, except I think the Maine district votes red again and the Nebraska district votes blue again.

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7 minutes ago, DakotaHale said:

I agree with this map, except I think the Maine district votes red again and the Nebraska district votes blue again.

TBH I don't really disagree with that, this was half me being lazy because 1 for 1 swapping between those states doesn't really matter haha.

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Biden has like 95% of Georgia in the primaries, while Trump is seeing about 15% in protest votes. Biden clearly wins GA if it's like this in November. Not a good sign for Trump. 

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12 hours ago, vcczar said:

Biden has like 95% of Georgia in the primaries, while Trump is seeing about 15% in protest votes. Biden clearly wins GA if it's like this in November. Not a good sign for Trump. 

She’s up to 77,000 votes in Georgia, 130,000 in Washington and she’s dropped out lol. 

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Here’s a question. Do you think Sherrod Brown on the OH ballot helps Biden more than Biden on the ballot hurts Brown. Follow up question, would Biden perform better or worse in OH if Brown was not on the ballot?

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1 hour ago, vcczar said:

Here’s a question. Do you think Sherrod Brown on the OH ballot helps Biden more than Biden on the ballot hurts Brown. Follow up question, would Biden perform better or worse in OH if Brown was not on the ballot?

I guess if there's any influence at all, the overall sentiment against Biden drags down Brown. I don't see Brown hurting or helping Biden in a significant way. 

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1 hour ago, vcczar said:

Here’s a question. Do you think Sherrod Brown on the OH ballot helps Biden more than Biden on the ballot hurts Brown. Follow up question, would Biden perform better or worse in OH if Brown was not on the ballot?

I think it depends on Browns opponent, which is shaping up to be Moreno. If that’s the election, I think Brown helps. It’s sort of the opposite of how I feel about the situation in Texas. In Texas, you have Cruz who is unpopular, and Trump who is unpopular and underperforming consistently in Texas. I think Cruz/Trump on the ballot will hurt GOP performance in Texas. I think Ohio stays around the same margin presidentially.

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  • vcczar changed the title to VCCZAR's 2024 Forecast (The 1st one -- March 8)

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