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VCCZAR's 2024 Forecast (March 15)


vcczar

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Here's the new map below:

Biden gets an EV bump by +2 as he's now leading Maine at large by a big margin. Maine had few polls and Trump had been winning by +2.2. Now Biden is up to almost 10 pts in Maine at large. 

Aside from this change, everything else remains the same. Both nominees can claim some victories. Both are barely more favorable than last week. Trump sees his lead increasing in all the battleground states he's now winning in, with the exception of GA, which moved somewhat to Biden, although Trump still leads there. Biden did see a boost to his lead in MN. Biden also gets some good signs with improvements to Direction of the County, Generic Ballot, and the Betting Market, although all but generic ballot still looks better for Trump. Generic Ballot has switched to the Democrats this week. 

At this point in 2020, Biden was +7 vs Trump; in 2016, Clinton was +10 vs Trump. For 2024, Trump is up +1.4

We got about 86 more days until my algorthim can make forecasts "accurately" since I have it designed for 100 days of polling. In truth, I think Biden wins PA, NV, and possibly MI and GA if the election were held today. The GA primary looked terrible for Trump.

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As of now in the OH primary, Trump is only getting 73% of the GOP vote, while Biden has got 90% of the Dem vote. Despite head-to-head polling, these primary results are looking really bad for Trump. He's got a historically bad protest vote situation for someone that has no challengers and has already locked up nomination. At least some of this is going to translate on election day. 

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3 minutes ago, vcczar said:

As of now in the OH primary, Trump is only getting 73% of the GOP vote, while Biden has got 90% of the Dem vote. Despite head-to-head polling, these primary results are looking really bad for Trump. He's got a historically bad protest vote situation for someone that has no challengers and has already locked up nomination. At least some of this is going to translate on election day. 

I'm bragging on my own social medias that Haley is dunking on DeSantis in his home state. Kinda funny, ngl. I'm surprised by her vote total in Florida. 

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I might be alone in this but I feel like comparing Trump's performance 1:1 with sitting incumbents is just not gonna be particularly fruitful or accurate. He's not the sitting President, and while we've never seen a former President jump into the race in the modern (post-WWII) era, I just think the gap in what you should expect in a primary performance between a sitting President and someone who is not the sitting President is going to be pretty significant. 

Is it notable that every other challenger has dropped out and Trump only gets 81% of the vote in FL? maybe, but you look at the 2020 primaries and Bernie dropped out and endorsed Biden on April 8th, and 81% would still be a better performance than Biden had in any primary contest until June. 

I still personally anticipate Biden wins in November, but I don't think Trump's primary performance is a tea leaf worth reading too much into. 

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