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VCCZAR's 2024 Forecast (March 29)


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Like the previous week, both candidates have some things going in their favor for the week. For Biden, he's flipped PA., and WI is close to flipping. Biden would also have to win MI to win, but he needs much better polling there, although he's gaining there.  Biden has also gained in the head-to-head polls. He's doing better in betting predictions, and Generic Democrats saw a gain. 

Trump saw slight improvements to AZ, GA, TX, in ME, but he's losing support in the critical PA, WI, and MI states to stop Biden. Here's where things are really going in Trump's favor this week. Biden's approval got a lot worse this week, for some reason, while Trump saw a slight improvement to his favorability. The Direction of the Country dropped, which helps Trump. 

Overall, I won't be surprised if WI flips next week, and MI flips in a month or two. At that point, we might have neck and neck general election polls but with Biden averaging 270 EVs in polls. Trump's current 293 EVs is very surface level. 

At this point in 2016, Hillary Clinton was +12. In 2020, Biden was +4. In 2024, Trump is +1. 

Here's the map:


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