Hestia Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2021-08-07/german-spd-has-support-to-lead-three-way-coalition-insa-poll According to a recent INSA poll, the SPD has drawn level with the Greens after nearly a year of trailing them. After gaffes and blowback to the CDU and Green campaigns, the SPD is being looked at as a potential frontrunner once again. The SPD still trails the CDU nationally by nearly 9 points, but has caught the Greens at 18. The two parties, in tandem with the liberal FDP, could have 48% support if an election was held today, crowning Olaf Scholz as Chancellor. This German election cycle, with the election next month, is going to be more wild than any other in years, I would bet. Scholz is also widely supported to succeed Merkel, if his party is not currently polling in the lead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hestia Posted August 9, 2021 Author Share Posted August 9, 2021 Just now, Patine said: The FDP seems to often play kingmaker in Post-WW2 Germany, given they've never elected a Chancellor of their own (despite Westerwelde's boast in the 2000's of being a, "Chancellor-in-waiting"). It's also remarkable for a party that dropped out of the Bundestag as recently as, what, 2012, is already back in the mix. They're polling between 11-14%, which gives them a pretty strong hand of their own. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edouard Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 1 hour ago, Patine said: The FDP seems to often play kingmaker in Post-WW2 Germany, given they've never elected a Chancellor of their own (despite Westerwelde's boast in the 2000's of being a, "Chancellor-in-waiting"). Which is sad in a way because FDP is an interesting party if I was german I think I would vote SDP on my first ballot and FDP on my second (via the proportionnal system) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pringles Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 4 hours ago, Edouard said: Which is sad in a way because FDP is an interesting party if I was german I think I would vote SDP on my first ballot and FDP on my second (via the proportionnal system) I agree mostly. I like the FDP and CDU in normal circumstances. With the recent shit coming from the CDU and Green candidate though. I really just want to see the FDP do well. I'd be fine with a coalition government with the FDP having a good say. They're quite the common sense party imo. I originally was a CDU man all the way and extremely against the Greens. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hestia Posted August 11, 2021 Author Share Posted August 11, 2021 Recent poll Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timur Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Hestia said: Recent poll Won't it be a Green-led coalition? Personally, I'm rooting for the CDU/CSU & maybe the FDP. Wonder how well the Free Voters will do, because they have been included in quite a few polls lately. Edited August 11, 2021 by Timur Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hestia Posted August 11, 2021 Author Share Posted August 11, 2021 Just now, Timur said: Won't it be a Green-led coalition? Personally, I'm rooting for the CDU/CSU & maybe the FDP. Wonder how well the Free Voters will do, because they have been included in quite a few polls lately. Assuming they beat the SPD, yes, but the momentum is on their side and voting isn't for another month. I would be more fine with the CDU if their candidate hadn't laughed during a somber speech about flood deaths. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timur Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 Another INSA poll has it like this: CDU 25.5% SPD 17.5% Grüne 13.5 FDP 12.5% AFD 11.5% Linke 6.5% Free Voters 3.5% Undecided 5.5% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pringles Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 15 minutes ago, Patine said: I didn't even tag or namedrop you in that post above, @Pringles. You must KNOW you're guilty as charged. 😏 Nah. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jvikings1 Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 Looking at the previous election, it appears the 2 major parties were overestimated in the polls while the smaller parties (AFD, the Greens, and FDP) were underestimated. If that happens again, things could get real interesting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hestia Posted August 11, 2021 Author Share Posted August 11, 2021 22 minutes ago, jvikings1 said: Looking at the previous election, it appears the 2 major parties were overestimated in the polls while the smaller parties (AFD, the Greens, and FDP) were underestimated. If that happens again, things could get real interesting That's possible, but generally German pollsters are more reliable than ours, if I remember right. The AfD has recently been overpolled in several regional elections, and the CDU overperformed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jvikings1 Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 9 hours ago, Hestia said: That's possible, but generally German pollsters are more reliable than ours, if I remember right. The AfD has recently been overpolled in several regional elections, and the CDU overperformed. I just checked and you are correct about AfD being over-polled in the 3 regional elections this year. And in one region, the CDU overperformed by 10 points. So maybe the reverse will be true this time around (if this translates to the national election). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hestia Posted August 14, 2021 Author Share Posted August 14, 2021 First poll basically since 2017 the SPD is back at 20%. Also first poll in quite some time they are ahead of the Greens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rezi Posted August 14, 2021 Share Posted August 14, 2021 If these numbers hold up, I'd be interested in seeing if SPD sticks with the CDU or maybe branches out to see about that Traffic Light Coalition. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timur Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 (edited) 20 hours ago, Rezi said: If these numbers hold up, I'd be interested in seeing if SPD sticks with the CDU or maybe branches out to see about that Traffic Light Coalition. Traffic light coalition? Now that's going to be fun - a classical liberal, pro-business party having a coalition with the Socialists and Greens. Imagine a Sanders-Stein-Gary Johnson coalition... Edited August 15, 2021 by Timur Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVProgressive Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, Timur said: Traffic light coalition? Now that's going to be fun - a classical liberal, pro-business party having a coalition with the Socialists and Greens. Imagine a Sanders-Stein-Gary Johnson coalition... The SPD isn't a Socialist party, its a Social Democratic Party, and the Greens don't seem as kooky as Jill Stein, and a large chunk of the American Greens, so I don't think a Traffic-Light Coalition is all that similar to what a Sanders-Stein-Johnson coalition would be. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timur Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, WVProgressive said: The SPD isn't a Socialist party, its a Social Democratic Party, and the Greens don't seem as kooky as Jill Stein, and a large chunk of the American Greens, so I don't think a Traffic-Light Coalition is all that similar to what a Sanders-Stein-Johnson coalition would be. Yeah, also the FDP doesn't seem to be crazy like the Libertarian Party. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hestia Posted August 18, 2021 Author Share Posted August 18, 2021 The climb continues Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timur Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 14 minutes ago, Hestia said: The climb continues The kingmaker could end up being the FDP. Imagine having a pro-business party in the same coalition as the Left. Or even AFD? It might end up being another grand coalition if there is no other choice... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hestia Posted August 18, 2021 Author Share Posted August 18, 2021 And another... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timur Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 (edited) 20 minutes ago, Hestia said: And another... Seems like Olaf Scholz is set to be the next Chancellor... Edited August 18, 2021 by Timur Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rezi Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hestia Posted August 24, 2021 Author Share Posted August 24, 2021 This is the SPD's first lead since 2006 in a Forsa poll. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hestia Posted August 30, 2021 Author Share Posted August 30, 2021 5-point SPD lead. With numbers like this, Jamaica coalition is incredibly hard to form. Traffic light looks inevitable, or if the SPD rises enough, Red-Green. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hestia Posted August 30, 2021 Author Share Posted August 30, 2021 55 minutes ago, Patine said: On the Sonstige, or, "others," I've noticed, in most Post-Weimar (and even most Weimar) German/West German Federal elections, minor parties tend to be very extreme, very local/regional, very one-issue, or very populist/protest oriented. Although I haven't yet looked up the 2021 German Bundestag election, would I correct to assume this tendency continues, or are there any overlooked gems ideologically and/or in platform and vision? Mostly true, yes. The Free Voters are getting bigger but are definitely still regional (though the number of regions seems to have grown). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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