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German SPD Has Support to Lead 3-Way Coalition


Hestia
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https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2021-08-07/german-spd-has-support-to-lead-three-way-coalition-insa-poll

According to a recent INSA poll, the SPD has drawn level with the Greens after nearly a year of trailing them. After gaffes and blowback to the CDU and Green campaigns, the SPD is being looked at as a potential frontrunner once again. The SPD still trails the CDU nationally by nearly 9 points, but has caught the Greens at 18. The two parties, in tandem with the liberal FDP, could have 48% support if an election was held today, crowning Olaf Scholz as Chancellor. This German election cycle, with the election next month, is going to be more wild than any other in years, I would bet. Scholz is also widely supported to succeed Merkel, if his party is not currently polling in the lead. 

 

 

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Just now, Patine said:

The FDP seems to often play kingmaker in Post-WW2 Germany, given they've never elected a Chancellor of their own (despite Westerwelde's boast in the 2000's of being a, "Chancellor-in-waiting").

It's also remarkable for a party that dropped out of the Bundestag as recently as, what, 2012, is already back in the mix. They're polling between 11-14%, which gives them a pretty strong hand of their own. 

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1 hour ago, Patine said:

The FDP seems to often play kingmaker in Post-WW2 Germany, given they've never elected a Chancellor of their own (despite Westerwelde's boast in the 2000's of being a, "Chancellor-in-waiting").

Which is sad in a way because FDP is an interesting party

if I was german I think I would vote SDP on my first ballot and FDP on my second (via the proportionnal system)

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4 hours ago, Edouard said:

Which is sad in a way because FDP is an interesting party

if I was german I think I would vote SDP on my first ballot and FDP on my second (via the proportionnal system)

I agree mostly. I like the FDP and CDU in normal circumstances. With the recent shit coming from the CDU and Green candidate though. I really just want to see the FDP do well. I'd be fine with a coalition government with the FDP having a good say. They're quite the common sense party imo.

I originally was a CDU man all the way and extremely against the Greens.

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4 minutes ago, Hestia said:

Recent poll

 

Won't it be a Green-led coalition?

Personally, I'm rooting for the CDU/CSU & maybe the FDP.

Wonder how well the Free Voters will do, because they have been included in quite a few polls lately.

Edited by Timur
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Just now, Timur said:

Won't it be a Green-led coalition?

Personally, I'm rooting for the CDU/CSU & maybe the FDP.

Wonder how well the Free Voters will do, because they have been included in quite a few polls lately.

Assuming they beat the SPD, yes, but the momentum is on their side and voting isn't for another month. I would be more fine with the CDU if their candidate hadn't laughed during a somber speech about flood deaths. 

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22 minutes ago, jvikings1 said:

Looking at the previous election, it appears the 2 major parties were overestimated in the polls while the smaller parties (AFD, the Greens, and FDP) were underestimated. If that happens again, things could get real interesting

That's possible, but generally German pollsters are more reliable than ours, if I remember right. The AfD has recently been overpolled in several regional elections, and the CDU overperformed. 

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9 hours ago, Hestia said:

That's possible, but generally German pollsters are more reliable than ours, if I remember right. The AfD has recently been overpolled in several regional elections, and the CDU overperformed. 

I just checked and you are correct about AfD being over-polled in the 3 regional elections this year. And in one region, the CDU overperformed by 10 points.

So maybe the reverse will be true this time around (if this translates to the national election).

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20 hours ago, Rezi said:

If these numbers hold up, I'd be interested in seeing if SPD sticks with the CDU or maybe branches out to see about that Traffic Light Coalition.

Traffic light coalition? Now that's going to be fun -  a classical liberal, pro-business party having a coalition with the Socialists and Greens. Imagine a Sanders-Stein-Gary Johnson coalition...

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3 minutes ago, Timur said:

Traffic light coalition? Now that's going to be fun -  a classical liberal, pro-business party having a coalition with the Socialists and Greens. Imagine a Sanders-Stein-Gary Johnson coalition...

The SPD isn't a Socialist party, its a Social Democratic Party, and the Greens don't seem as kooky as Jill Stein, and a large chunk of the American Greens, so I don't think a Traffic-Light Coalition is all that similar to what a Sanders-Stein-Johnson coalition would be.

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5 minutes ago, WVProgressive said:

The SPD isn't a Socialist party, its a Social Democratic Party, and the Greens don't seem as kooky as Jill Stein, and a large chunk of the American Greens, so I don't think a Traffic-Light Coalition is all that similar to what a Sanders-Stein-Johnson coalition would be.

Yeah, also the FDP doesn't seem to be crazy like the Libertarian Party.

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14 minutes ago, Hestia said:

The climb continues

The kingmaker could end up being the FDP. Imagine having a pro-business party in the same coalition as the Left.

Or even AFD?

It might end up being another grand coalition if there is no other choice...

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55 minutes ago, Patine said:

On the Sonstige, or, "others," I've noticed, in most Post-Weimar (and even most Weimar) German/West German Federal elections, minor parties tend to be very extreme, very local/regional, very one-issue, or very populist/protest oriented. Although I haven't yet looked up the 2021 German Bundestag election, would I correct to assume this tendency continues, or are there any overlooked gems ideologically and/or in platform and vision?

Mostly true, yes. The Free Voters are getting bigger but are definitely still regional (though the number of regions seems to have grown). 

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