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If the 2024 Election were Today


vcczar

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Using my same algorithm for predicting the 2020 results, I am getting the following result for if the election happened today. Note: there's A LOT of data that isn't available yet, so this is a less confident analysis than what I'll be able to make in the general election 2024. Some of you may know I only missed ME-2 in the last election. I don't have as sufficient # of state polls for 2024, so this is using almost exclusively favorability, generic polls, approval, disapproval, trends from 2016 to 2020, new voter restriction laws likely to pass, etc. 

46NL8.png

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It's also worth noting that Trump (42.5%) somehow has a higher approval rating than Kamala Harris (40.8%) right now according to RCP (though it's almost certain that hers would go up if she became the Dem nominee when she's being compared against Trump instead of Biden). How would you predict a Trump vs Kamala showdown?

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12 minutes ago, DakotaHale said:

It's also worth noting that Trump (42.5%) somehow has a higher approval rating than Kamala Harris (40.8%) right now according to RCP (though it's almost certain that hers would go up if she became the Dem nominee when she's being compared against Trump instead of Biden). How would you predict a Trump vs Kamala showdown?

I think Harris might lose NV and NH, but could gain PA, if she's lucky. I really don't think Harris should run unless she gets up to 50% approval. Really no one should ever run with lower than 50% approval.

 

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Just now, vcczar said:

I think Harris might lose NV and NH, but could gain PA, if she's lucky. I really don't think Harris should run unless she gets up to 50% approval. Really no one should ever run with lower than 50% approval.

Do you think she would do better at drumming up black support than Biden?

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5 minutes ago, DakotaHale said:

Also @vcczar what are your thoughts on the generic ballots being as close as they are? (Dem lead 2.2%).

This was most surprising to me. I know the president's party historically does shitty in midterms but I still expected something like 5%.

I've seen the generic ballot at 2% to 10% for Dems. It's not as high as it was, but I'm a little shocked that Biden isn't really taking the party down with him as much as I thought he was. This probably has to do with GOP being grouped with anti-maskers and anti-vaxxers. I think if the GOP decided to pick its battles in other areas, they'd probably be winning the generic polls. 

 

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Just now, DakotaHale said:

Do you think she would do better at drumming up black support than Biden?

I think she has the potential to, and she would have to. For instance, I think both Obama and Harris had like a 9/10 potential to drum up black support (I think a 10/10 would have to be someone that grew up in a Black environment almost exclusively). I think Obama used about 7 out of that 9 potential. I think Harris uses like 4 or 5 out of that 9 potential. I think Biden uses all 7 of his 7 potential. I think H Clinton used 6 of 7. I think B Clinton used 7 of 7. I'd expect Tim Scott to have about a potential of 9 but to use like 4 or 5 of it, if he ran. I'd probably have a potential of 5 here, but I think I'd probably use 4 or 5 of it, just for comparison. I don't know that many black people. My high school was like 98% white. However, I support 95% of BLM. 

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7 minutes ago, Sean F Kennedy said:

Yeah jailing single parents of truant kids or people for marijuana isn’t particularly popular with BLM or anyone really 

Girlboss Kamala BLM!

 

Conveniently forgets Kamala's record on crime

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