Entrecampos Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 RATING POLLSTER Biden Approval % Biden Disapproval % Biden Approval - Disapproval S+ Trafalgar 40 56 -16 B+ YouGov 42 48 -6 B+ Ipsos 48 47 1 B Rasmussen 43 56 -13 B Morning Consult 46 47 -1 C+ Quinnipiac University 38 53 -15 D- Redfield & Wilton Strategies 45 37 8 Entrecampos 42.3 52.5 -10.2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Entrecampos Posted October 8, 2021 Author Share Posted October 8, 2021 (edited) I use an updated version of my 2020 Presidential election pollsters model that did a very good job predicting portuguese mayoral elections and USA 2020 elections (the best prediction in voting shares that I have knowledge). Edited October 8, 2021 by Entrecampos Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hestia Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 9 minutes ago, Entrecampos said: RATING POLLSTER Biden Approval % Biden Disapproval % Biden Approval - Disapproval S+ Trafalgar 40 56 -16 B+ YouGov 42 48 -6 B+ Ipsos 48 47 1 B Rasmussen 43 56 -13 B Morning Consult 46 47 -1 C+ Quinnipiac University 38 53 -15 D- Redfield & Wilton Strategies 45 37 8 Entrecampos 42.3 52.5 -10.2 S+ to Trafalgar? You've got to be kidding. That's a complete joke. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hestia Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 They did better in 2020, but they had some of these beauties too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Entrecampos Posted October 8, 2021 Author Share Posted October 8, 2021 (edited) 26 minutes ago, Hestia said: S+ to Trafalgar? You've got to be kidding. That's a complete joke. Yes, governors and senate elections are harder to predict, the big majority of the other pollsters, have the same problems in these type of elections, they have very good records in presidential elections of 2016 and 2020, and this is my main way to evaluate pollsters (2.75% mean error versus 4.80% of Quinnipiac for example). They were rated as C- in 2020 by 538, and this was a enormous giant joke that I detected by that time. Comparing with Presidential predictions of Quinnipiac (I removed other type of elections) for example that has the same rating of Trafalgar in 538 now (A-), you see they are much worse. I know that 538 tries to do the overall between Presidentials and other elections, but for me Presidential polls have much more importance than the others. Edited October 8, 2021 by Entrecampos Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hestia Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 Just now, Entrecampos said: Yes, governors and senate elections are harder to predict, the big majority of the other pollsters, have the same problems in these type of elections, they have very good records in presidential elections of 2016 and 2020, and this is my main way to evaluate pollsters (2.75% mean error versus 4.80% of Quinnipiac for example). They were rated as C- in 2020 by 538, and this was a enormous giant joke that I detected by that time. Comparing with Presidential predictions of Quinnipiac (I removed other type of elections) for example that has the same rating of Trafalgar in 538, you see they are much worse. I know that 538 tries to do the overall between Presidentials and other elections, but for me Presidential polls have much more importance than the others. So completely ignoring an entire cycle in between because it's poor for that pollster? That doesnt seem like a good idea. Several pollsters were much closer, in fact 2018 was better polled than 2016 generally, even though some bumps still in the Midwest. They may be better, but S tier is REALLY overblowing it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Entrecampos Posted October 8, 2021 Author Share Posted October 8, 2021 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Hestia said: So completely ignoring an entire cycle in between because it's poor for that pollster? That doesnt seem like a good idea. Several pollsters were much closer, in fact 2018 was better polled than 2016 generally, even though some bumps still in the Midwest. They may be better, but S tier is REALLY overblowing it. I need to admit one thing, I lost most of my time analysing pollsters in presidential elections, my elo system has 90% of data put in Presidential elections and 10% in other type of elections (because lack of time), and 0% of primaries, this ranking is made to be good in presidentials, not in other type of elections, I need to adjust Approval ratings from this Presidential elections rating to general elections rating (I will need some weeks maybe). Sorry for that. Edited October 8, 2021 by Entrecampos 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hestia Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 Just now, Entrecampos said: I need to admit one thing, I lost most of my time analysing pollsters in presidential elections, my elo system has 90% of data put in Presidential elections and 10% in other type of elections (because lack of time), this ranking is made to be good in presidentials, not in other type of elections, I need to adjust Approval ratings from this Presidential elections rating to general elections rating (I will need some weeks maybe). Sorry for that. That's ok. Your method, I just don't think Trafalgar is a gold standard with some of these stats. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Entrecampos Posted October 8, 2021 Author Share Posted October 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, Hestia said: That's ok. Your method, I just don't think Trafalgar is a gold standard with some of these stats. My 2020 Elo System was much better than Trafalgar in Presidential Elections, but even my model had 0.5 to 1.0% GOP bias, and was enough to be wrong in the winner of Wisconsin, Arizona and Georgia (if my national voting share was 100% right, i woud be right in all states). Unfortunately its hard to search and find the perfection. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timur Posted October 9, 2021 Share Posted October 9, 2021 6 hours ago, Hestia said: S+ to Trafalgar? You've got to be kidding. That's a complete joke. Well, Trafalgar is the only pollster to get a couple states in the Midwest (I'm not sure if they predicted Pennsylvania correctly) correct while the others got them wrong in the 2016 Presidential election... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hestia Posted October 9, 2021 Share Posted October 9, 2021 Just now, Timur said: Well, Trafalgar is the only pollster to get a couple states in the Midwest (I'm not sure if they predicted Pennsylvania correctly) correct while the others got them wrong in the 2016 Presidential election... Sure, they did fine. S+ tier? Hardly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Entrecampos Posted October 17, 2021 Author Share Posted October 17, 2021 Ranking Pollsters Trump Biden 1 Trafalgar Group 47 48 2 AtlasIntel 49 51 3 Emerson College 45 53 4 Susquehanna 46 49 5 Siena College 41 52 6 Marquette Law School 43 47.5 7 Gravis Marketing 43 54 8 CNN/SSRS 44 51.5 9 YouGov 43.5 52 10 Morning Consult 41 54 11 Research Co. 42 50 12 Swayable 45 55 13 Fox News 44 48.5 14 Change Research 45 53 15 Ipsos 44 53 16 RMG Research 44 50 17 ABC News 39.5 56.5 18 Civiqs 47 51 19 SurveyMonkey 43.5 54.5 20 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 45 49 Wisconsin Entrecampos 47.46 47.68 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Entrecampos Posted October 17, 2021 Author Share Posted October 17, 2021 (edited) Results for Wisconsin 2020 with my Presidential model, I understand that some pollsters are better for different types of elections, Trafalgar is very good for Presidentials, not this good in the others. In Portugal this also happens, Catholic pollster is very good in mayorals and not this good in general elections, for example. Edited October 17, 2021 by Entrecampos 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Entrecampos Posted October 17, 2021 Author Share Posted October 17, 2021 Ranking Empresa Trump Biden 1 Trafalgar 49 47 2 Wick 50 47 3 Emerson College 46 52 4 Susquehanna 47 46 5 Rasmussen Reports 47 48 6 St.Pete Polls 48 49 7 Siena College 44 47 8 Insider Advantage 48 47 9 Quinnipiac 42 47 10 Morning Consult 45 52 11 AYTM 43 45 12 Swayable 46 53 13 Data for Progress 48 51 14 Frederick Polls 49 51 15 Change Research 48 51 16 Ipsos 46.5 50.5 17 RMG Research 47 51 18 ABC News 49.5 47.5 19 SurveyMonkey 48.5 49.5 20 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 44.33 50.67 Florida Intracampos 47.38 43.80 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Entrecampos Posted October 17, 2021 Author Share Posted October 17, 2021 (edited) For Wisconsin and Florida we can say, assuming that 98% votes GOP or DEM 49.1% Biden 48.9% Trump 50.9% Trump 47.1% Biden Edited October 17, 2021 by Entrecampos 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Entrecampos Posted October 18, 2021 Author Share Posted October 18, 2021 I made some changes in my rankings. Pennsylvania 2020. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Entrecampos Posted October 18, 2021 Author Share Posted October 18, 2021 Biden with -8.1% net approval with the actual model. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Entrecampos Posted October 20, 2021 Author Share Posted October 20, 2021 Ranking Empresa DEMs GOPs 1 WPA Intelligence* 44 42 2 Quinnipiac University 43.5 46.5 3 YouGov 42 37 4 Marist College 46 38 5 CNN/SSRS 45 42 6 Public Opinion Strategies 42 42 7 Lake Research Partners/Emerson College 45 41 8 McLaughlin & Associates 47.00 48.00 9 Echelon Insights 48.5 40 10 Change Research 47.5 45 11 The Winston Group* 46 43 12 Morning Consult 45 40 12 RMG Research 40 41 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 USA 2021 Generic Election Entrecampos 51.47 48.53 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Entrecampos Posted October 20, 2021 Author Share Posted October 20, 2021 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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