Entrecampos Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DakotaHale Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 I agree. I expect a 3.5%-ish margin of victory for McAuliffe if the election was held today. That incumbency bonus is hard to beat and there's only so much elasticity that can happen in two years. The state went 10 points for Biden I believe, and as long as he doesn't have any dumbass foreign policy blunders like he did in Afghanistan and the economy recovers, (which it should) the state wills stay blue. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DakotaHale Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 Also may I ask what the asterisks mean? I may have missed this in an earlier thread of yours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Entrecampos Posted October 18, 2021 Author Share Posted October 18, 2021 Just now, DakotaHale said: Also may I ask what the asterisks mean? I may have missed this in an earlier thread of yours. Nothing, is how it appears in FiveThirtyEight. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hestia Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 As I recall, in 2017 polls showed a close race that ended up being nowhere near that in Northam's favor. I wouldn't be surprised to see a D+7 race or something similar by motivating Dems to turn out at the end or GOP turnout isn't what is expected (not high, but more medium). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Entrecampos Posted October 18, 2021 Author Share Posted October 18, 2021 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Entrecampos Posted October 18, 2021 Author Share Posted October 18, 2021 Model updated. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timur Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 56 minutes ago, Hestia said: As I recall, in 2017 polls showed a close race that ended up being nowhere near that in Northam's favor. I wouldn't be surprised to see a D+7 race or something similar by motivating Dems to turn out at the end or GOP turnout isn't what is expected (not high, but more medium). Also, the race was closer than expected in 2013... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hestia Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Timur said: Also, the race was closer than expected in 2013... Our political era is now very different from 2013 lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timur Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 1 hour ago, Hestia said: Our political era is now very different from 2013 lol I think the impact of third parties does play a part though. In 2013, the Libertarian candidate got a lot of votes. (It is possible that he took away a bunch of Democratic voters) In 2017, the Libertarian candidate did not get a lot of votes In 2021, the Liberation candidate won't get a lot of votes I'm expecting the Democrats to win in Virginia--not close though--I'll just guess that there will be a 5% lead (but this is just a guess). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dobs Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 5 hours ago, DakotaHale said: I agree. I expect a 3.5%-ish margin of victory for McAuliffe if the election was held today. That incumbency bonus is hard to beat and there's only so much elasticity that can happen in two years. The state went 10 points for Biden I believe, and as long as he doesn't have any dumbass foreign policy blunders like he did in Afghanistan and the economy recovers, (which it should) the state wills stay blue. I don't see the economy changing all that much in the next 2 weeks lol. Biden's approval still lags from Afghanistan as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dobs Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Patine said: Do that many people REALLY want to carry on with a pointless, lost war akin to Vietnam with no long-term plan where the original objective for invading in the first place was accomplished about a decade ago and that a continued presence is not only a futile quagmire of more deaths and war crimes on both sides, and stirs more terrorist groups to action and enables their morale and recruitment? Yes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dobs Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, Patine said: Then again, modern propaganda machines instill weird and ridiculous ideas in people, and convince them not to think for themselves. Manifestly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rezi Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 (edited) 9 minutes ago, Patine said: Then again, modern propaganda machines instill weird and ridiculous ideas in people, and convince them not to think for themselves. You mean the nation that literally had trading cards for desert storm and Cancelled a band over being anti-war is filled to the brim with pro-war propaganda? No that’s outrageous Edited October 18, 2021 by Rezi 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dobs Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, Patine said: I'm surprised by your admission and agreement here, to be honest, given you're a big consumer of at least one major brand of it. It would be good for your argument if I were. Alas, you're remiss there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Entrecampos Posted October 18, 2021 Author Share Posted October 18, 2021 (edited) 3 hours ago, Patine said: These modern engines of propaganda are downright EVIL, with no redeeming qualities, and still cleave closer to the Goebbels school that a lot of people admit. I was reading about Nuremberg trials yesterday, that were weird, I dont understand how Rudolf Hess wasnt killed and others were. Im against capital death, except in war cases... but if you consider that Rudolf Hess never shown any type of regret, i dont understand this criteria difference. Edited October 18, 2021 by Entrecampos Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Entrecampos Posted October 24, 2021 Author Share Posted October 24, 2021 (edited) One of my reference websites. (That i interpret in a personal way, you cant see things linearly). Early answers have very small sample, so I did cut, because arent enough to conclusions, only late anwers. Race is very regular without major changes in the last month. Edited October 24, 2021 by Entrecampos 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Entrecampos Posted October 27, 2021 Author Share Posted October 27, 2021 Im not happy with my algorithm (doesnt work well in no presidential elections). But for now, is the best i can offer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Entrecampos Posted November 2, 2021 Author Share Posted November 2, 2021 Things changed. Final prediction. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hestia Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 Turnout seems to be good for Dems, even compared to what 2017 was (up a bit in No. VA and in Charlottesville). I think McAuliffe takes it 51-47 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vcczar Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 10 minutes ago, Hestia said: Turnout seems to be good for Dems, even compared to what 2017 was (up a bit in No. VA and in Charlottesville). I think McAuliffe takes it 51-47 I hope you’re right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rezi Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 McAuliffe is back in the lead in betting odds with turnout information so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rezi Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hestia Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 High turnout all over the state. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Entrecampos Posted November 2, 2021 Author Share Posted November 2, 2021 39 minutes ago, Hestia said: High turnout all over the state. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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