Trump now has a higher RCP approval rating than Biden

[DakotaHale]

Biden:

TRUMP: 

Biden is saved by his disapproval narrowly avoiding being bad as Trump's. While these statistics might strike fear for many Biden supporters, I don't think they're a reason to get concerned. I think Biden's declining approval is mainly due to him now being measured against his own merits, instead of being measured against Trump (like in an election season), in which case his approval would most likely go up as I'm sure the majority of Americans would find him more favorable when compared to a hypothetical return of Trump in 2024. And also a lot of Trump's support came from voters who were disgruntled and approved of neither party (a vote share that declined for him in 2020, raising the question: "is being the incumbent in times of hyper-polarization still an advantage?")

The only concerning thing I'd note for Democrats is Trump's eerily consistent gaining of popularity YTD. Even recovering entirely from Jan. 6th (his approval was 42.5% on Jan. 5th, dropping to a peak low of 37.2%, before recovering to the current 43.5%). On the day of the election, his approval was 41.8%, showing his unprecedented ability to completely recover from scandals that would erode any other politicians career is still in effect.

Thoughts?

Also just for fun: both candidates are thankfully more popular than Kamala

[vcczar]

Approval and favorability aren't exactly the same thing, but it is interesting to compare them.

[DakotaHale]

Here's my prediction if a hypothetical election were held today (and people had the same amount of notice and turnout as a normal election).

Arizona would be the tipping-point state IMO and the decider of the election. Both parties would do well to hold their convention there or in Atlanta.

[DakotaHale]

9 minutes ago, DakotaHale said:

Arizona would be the tipping-point state IMO and the decider of the election. Both parties would do well to hold their convention there or in Atlanta.

Just found some interesting fun facts on this on Wikipedia: 

The last time the RNC and DNC held their conventions in the same city was in Chicago in 1972. This has only happened in 6 Presidential election cycles in US history, of which Chicago was the host city 5 times (the other being Philadelphia in 1948). The Republicans hold a 3-2 lead when this happens in Chicago, and including Philadelphia, the lead rises to 4-2.

[vcczar]

24 minutes ago, DakotaHale said:

Here's my prediction if a hypothetical election were held today (and people had the same amount of notice and turnout as a normal election).

Arizona would be the tipping-point state IMO and the decider of the election. Both parties would do well to hold their convention there or in Atlanta.

Could be. I see PA staying Blue and either GA or AZ going Red. I think you're right about WI. I'm curious how people vote if both Abbott and DeSantis are unpopular over COVID-handling. Say if Biden's COVID-handling is polling better than theirs.