vcczar Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 Treasury Sec. Yellen expects inflation to return to normal next year. I know she's supposed to say stuff like that, so it could just be talk, but assuming the following happens, who do you think wins in 2022 and 2024? COVID cases and deaths decreases to the point that mandates don't exist anywhere in the US, and businesses are fully open inside in major cities again. By 2024, COVID, aside from how it was handled, is not a major issue anymore. Democrats argue Biden took us out of the pandemic and the COVID recession. GOP argues that BIden's policies extended both needlessly. Inflation returns to normal, unemployment drops, the economy is expected to show a post-COVID boom by 2022, and the post-COVID boom is appearing to be evident in 2024. A lingering issue will probably still be, who will take the low paying jobs that people are quitting and refusing to work as they're finding work elsewhere, presumably. Oddly, "Help Wanted" signs are still prevalent despite unemployment decreasing and not really that high. Supply chain is still less than ideal by 2022, but by 2024 the watered-down infrastructure bill that passed Congress, is showing some effect on the Supply Chain, which is about 85% of what it was pre-COVID. Some fear US supply chain will never be what it was before. Biden has failed to have a foreign policy success by 2022, except those that think ending the war in Afghanistan is a policy success, despite the blunderous withdrawal. Biden fails to secure a international climate agreement breakthrough. He's done nothing regarding China. By 2024, he's securing a bunch of small trade deals hoping one flowers into a major success. Aside from the watered down infrastructure bill, Biden is unable to see any major domestic agenda through. Assuming GOP takes Congress in the 2022 midterms, Biden starts doing what he can via the executive branch. He attempts to cancel student loans (succeeds if courts don't block him), and attempts to guarantee the right to vote via an executive order, which may or may not be enforceable. Biden is showing some weariness by 2024 but is still running for reelection. His net approval is better during the midterms and general elections than it is currently -- say 45%-46% at midterms and about 47% during General Election. Trump announces he's running for president right before the midterms. DeSantis jumps in anyway. Cruz jumps in. Hogan jumps in. Haley, Noem, Cotton, Rand Paul, Graham, Pompeo, and several others wait and see if Trump loses support to DeSantis or Cruz to jump. Overall establishment Democrats are happy with Democrats in both 2022 and 2024. Progressives are disappointed but then approve of his executive orders post-midterm. Both of these possibly symbolic efforts energize some Progressives and black voters. Independents who aren't particularly ideologically partisan consider the economy the most important issue, which helps Biden as the economy is going northward. NeverTrump Republicans are waiting for a non-Trump and non-Trump-Lackey to be the nominee. They have a big decision to make with either going 3rd party or sticking with Biden again--Biden's exec orders might push them away, but NeverTrump Republicans are probably fewer in number than the Progressives and Black voters Biden needed to energize to vote. I don't expect Trump to offer anything new in 2024. He'll be banking on 100% nostalgia, same policies, and wishing to relitigate 2020. This isn't going to earn him any new converts. He'll have to bank on 1) Biden 2020 voters not voting at all or voting 3rd party. 2) New young voters not being energized to vote for an old man (same issue Trump might have). 3) Trump supporters who died of old age or of COVID are fewer in number than new young voters that like Trump. If the above ends up being the narrative for 2022 and 2024, who do you think wins in these elections? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vcczar Posted October 24, 2021 Author Share Posted October 24, 2021 4 minutes ago, Patine said: Idealized circumstances I'm not presenting an idealized situation. It's a better situation for Biden, but he's also got some issues in this scenario. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vcczar Posted October 24, 2021 Author Share Posted October 24, 2021 34 minutes ago, Patine said: Well, yes, you mentioned him showing, "weariness," - which is logical, he's old, and not superhuman, and Trump will also likely show, "weariness," and perhaps even a, "heart-attack scare," like Eisenhower had, given his diet. "Not doing anything about China," is, ultimately, standard modus operandi, it seems, as no U.S. President has done anything indelibly or of long-term solidity about China since Nixon - and what he did was quite inverse to the demands of many today. I basically have Biden where the economy is favorable for him but he's made almost no foreign policy or domestic accomplishments. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiw Posted November 3, 2021 Share Posted November 3, 2021 Trump still wins, he has a massive fanbase who will undermine the opposition however they can. Needless to day, I'm SHITTING myself at the idea of a second Trump presidency! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DakotaHale Posted November 3, 2021 Share Posted November 3, 2021 2 hours ago, Wiw said: Trump still wins, he has a massive fanbase who will undermine the opposition however they can. Needless to day, I'm SHITTING myself at the idea of a second Trump presidency! Life didn’t give me lemons — it gave me pants. And I’ve shit them. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiw Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 Sir, need I remind you that there are MILLIONS of people dead, and millions more starving in the streets ON WHICH THEY WERE THROWN OUT TO DURING A PANDEMIC BECAUSE OF HE AND HIS GOVERNMENT FAILING THEM WITH HIM AT THE HELM?!?!?! Now... now imagine four more years of that. EIGHT more years! SIXTEEN! The thought is enough to drive anyone crazy! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timur Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 3 hours ago, Wiw said: Sir, need I remind you that there are MILLIONS of people dead, and millions more starving in the streets ON WHICH THEY WERE THROWN OUT TO DURING A PANDEMIC BECAUSE OF HE AND HIS GOVERNMENT FAILING THEM WITH HIM AT THE HELM?!?!?! Now... now imagine four more years of that. EIGHT more years! SIXTEEN! The thought is enough to drive anyone crazy! Sir, I need to remind you that AlternateHistory.com is not the real world. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiw Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 Nothing a little executive order can't fix. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiw Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 Well I am now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiw Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 The sad part is that's only part of the problem. His approach to foreign policy may end up accidentally sparking World War III. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timur Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 55 minutes ago, Wiw said: The sad part is that's only part of the problem. His approach to foreign policy may end up accidentally sparking World War III. You should write a novel...or maybe post a short story of your bleak vision of the future... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dobs Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 24 minutes ago, Timur said: You should write a novel...or maybe post a short story of your bleak vision of the future... This is an excellent suggestion, it might be therapeutic for him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrPotatoTed Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 CNN has an article up saying that while Republicans winning Virginia and nearly winning New Jersey obviously aren't great signs for Democrats, it is notable that the winners were not necessarily "Trump" Republicans. They're suggesting this is a sign the Republican party is starting to drift away from Trump and back to some sense of normalcy. I'll need to see it continue into 2022 and 2024 to believe it, of course, but as a formerly independent moderate, I'd welcome such a shift. Also, my daughter's school district had a school board race that made national news while it was happening because of the hostility between the candidates. My literal next door neighbor was one of the candidates -- a Trump supporter and anti-masker. She and two other Trump supporters banded together to run against the moderate incumbents. I was truly deeply worried about what this would mean for my daughter's education, as I've always been proud of the (public) school she goes to and now it would be run by people who don't believe science exists. But thankfully, the entire Trumpette group of challengers were defeated by the incumbents -- even though this area is usually filled with a lot of vocal Trump supporters. Not sure if the silent majority rose up to protect our kids, or if it's another sign that running on Trump's coattails is more damaging to your campaign than a path to success. Time will tell. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dobs Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 24 minutes ago, MrPotatoTed said: CNN has an article up saying that while Republicans winning Virginia and nearly winning New Jersey obviously aren't great signs for Democrats, it is notable that the winners were not necessarily "Trump" Republicans. They're suggesting this is a sign the Republican party is starting to drift away from Trump and back to some sense of normalcy. I'll need to see it continue into 2022 and 2024 to believe it, of course, but as a formerly independent moderate, I'd welcome such a shift. Also, my daughter's school district had a school board race that made national news while it was happening because of the hostility between the candidates. My literal next door neighbor was one of the candidates -- a Trump supporter and anti-masker. She and two other Trump supporters banded together to run against the moderate incumbents. I was truly deeply worried about what this would mean for my daughter's education, as I've always been proud of the (public) school she goes to and now it would be run by people who don't believe science exists. But thankfully, the entire Trumpette group of challengers were defeated by the incumbents -- even though this area is usually filled with a lot of vocal Trump supporters. Not sure if the silent majority rose up to protect our kids, or if it's another sign that running on Trump's coattails is more damaging to your campaign than a path to success. Time will tell. How close was it, if you don't mind my asking? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hestia Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 28 minutes ago, MrPotatoTed said: Also, my daughter's school district had a school board race that made national news while it was happening because of the hostility between the candidates. My literal next door neighbor was one of the candidates -- a Trump supporter and anti-masker. She and two other Trump supporters banded together to run against the moderate incumbents. I was truly deeply worried about what this would mean for my daughter's education, as I've always been proud of the (public) school she goes to and now it would be run by people who don't believe science exists. This happened in Iowa too. We have had some of the wars going on about it all over the state because of Reynolds. Anti-maskers won in two prominent areas - Ankeny and Johnston, two suburbs of Des Moines (Ankeny is particularly well known for being odd) and Johnston had 4 Dem-aligned candidates versus 3-GOP which made the numbers odd. Meanwhile, more pro-mask or progressive candidates won in West Des Moines, Johnston, Iowa City, Waterloo, Davenport, Fairfield, Coralville, Ames, etc. Even Marshalltown! It was a romp. Thank goodness. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrPotatoTed Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 5 minutes ago, Dobs said: How close was it, if you don't mind my asking? Here's an NPR story about our local school board race. Schultz is my literal next door neighbor. https://www.npr.org/2021/10/20/1047532269/school-board-elections-will-be-an-early-test-of-what-issues-motivate-voters Final results are a little complicated...they're being reported as percentages...the incumbents got 20% and the Trump-lovin' challengers got 13%. So...what happened to the other 64% of the voters? Well, there's 3 incumbents and 3 challengers. 20%+20%+20%+13%+13%+13% = about 100% In total, more than 44,000 votes were cast in the local school board election. There were only about 30,000 votes in the previous school board election, in 2017. And only about 20,000 votes in 2013. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dobs Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 8 minutes ago, MrPotatoTed said: In total, more than 44,000 votes were cast in the local school board election. There were only about 30,000 votes in the previous school board election, in 2017. And only about 20,000 votes in 2013. @Rodja Great night for democracy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rodja Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 1 minute ago, Dobs said: @Rodja Great night for democracy. If we look from that perspective it was indeed.My comment about bad night for democracy was referring to Governor races as it might be indicator that GOP will do good in 2022 which would be bad for democracy cause the party embraces quasi-fascist Trumpian worldview and accepts election results only when they win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrPotatoTed Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, Rodja said: If we look from that perspective it was indeed.My comment about bad night for democracy was referring to Governor races as it might be indicator that GOP will do good in 2022 which would be bad for democracy cause the party embraces quasi-fascist Trumpian worldview and accepts election results only when they win. Understandable. Though notable that with record turnout in a district and state that voted overwhelmingly for Trump...the MAGA candidates lost 60%/33%. And, again, the Republican candidates who won VA and nearly won NJ did not alight themselves with Trump's worldview. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timur Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 Meanwhile, Eric Adams is the new mayor of New York City. The Party for Socialism and Liberation might be rejoicing at the 2% result... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mark2 Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 7 hours ago, Wiw said: The sad part is that's only part of the problem. His approach to foreign policy may end up accidentally sparking World War III. glad to see Wiw is still a massive doomer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vcczar Posted November 4, 2021 Author Share Posted November 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, mark2 said: glad to see Wiw is still a massive doomer Were you on the 270Soft forum? What was your name there? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mark2 Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, vcczar said: Were you on the 270Soft forum? What was your name there? yes, nyconservative mayhaps 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DakotaHale Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 53 minutes ago, mark2 said: yes, nyconservative mayhaps Based. Welcome aboard Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DakotaHale Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 22 hours ago, Patine said: Are you going to deal with Eugene? Did you report it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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