vcczar Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 Lots of A-grade polls released today. Here they are: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/ Findings: Despite Biden's low approval, Generic Democrats are still more popular than Generic Republicans. Biden's approval isn't necessarily rising but it isn't falling either. One poll even gives him a net positive approval, but that's probably an outlier. Donald Trump is MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH more unfavorable than Biden still. Two different pollsters have measured his favorability. One gives him a net unfavorable +12 and the better pollster gives him an net unfavorable of +26. Meanwhile, while one recent poll gives Biden a net unfavorable of +12, he is generally around +5 or +6 net unfavorable. That is to say, Biden is unfavorable, but Trump is something else -- detested, perhaps. I should note that Trump is measured on Favorable/Unfavorable, while Biden is measured on Approve/Disapprove. There's a lot of overlap, but there may be some differences. Who knows how this would change if the language was identical for both Biden and Trump. Youngkin once again is ahead of McAuliffe. While I do think Youngkin will win, I think it is a little bit of a surprise for one reason: I heard something yesterday that Biden and Democrats still have a noticeably higher approval than both Trump and Republicans in Virginia. As such, one would expect McAuliffe to be polling better. He did have a net approval of +11 on average when he was governor. I think there could be three factors involved: 1) Northam's approval is only +3 net approval and it's been declining. 2) Democrats in Virginia have had to deal with some scandals within the last few years in the state. 3) Opponents of Democrats are probably rallying behind Youngkin, while a fraction of opponents of Youngkin are probably considering 3rd party. There's a subsection of left wing voters that won't vote for someone like McAuliffe, who they see as someone who won't bring change or reform. I think McAuliffe's strategy in the last day should be to go to college campuses and get registered students that haven't voted yet to get out and vote. Youth turnout is low and they might be more prone to vote 3rd party or not at all. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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