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Hypothetical Democratic Primary


vcczar

Hypothetical Democratic primary  

18 members have voted

  1. 1. Who would defeat Pres. Joe Biden in the primaries if Biden has a 38% approval throughout the primaries.

    • Hillary Clinton
    • Bernie Sanders
    • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
    • Kyrsten Sinema
    • Joe Manchin
    • Biden wins because of incumbency
  2. 2. Who would likely win the nomination if Biden declined to run again?

    • Kamala Harris
    • Pete Buttigieg
    • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
      0
    • Gavin Newsom
      0
    • Jon Ossof
    • Gretchen Whitmer
    • Kyrsten Sinema
      0
    • Elizabeth Warren
    • Cory Booker


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I think Booker, Buttigieg, and Whitmer go one two and three. I think Booker will be able to win primarily because he comes off as more human than Buttigieg. More people are appealed by pathos (emotion, sentimentality, etc) and I think Buttigieg is a genius at appealing to logos (logic), but not too skilled at coming off as authentically pathos. Whitmer will get 3rd because of existing ingrained misogyny. 

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Interesting take on Booker.  I like Booker and had hoped in 2020 for a Buttigieg/Booker ticket.  That said, I've always questioned how much of his passionate oratory is authentic and how much is performative.  It's always struck me as acting, not actual feelings.  There's a weird emptiness to the passion...I don't know, it's hard to describe.  On the flip side, the reason I'm such a passionate supporter of Pete is because I do believe that his oratory is more real than any other politician that I've ever seen.  Maybe #2 to Obama, but it's close.  Either way, I don't see Whitmer being a significant player three years from now.

As for the survey question, I don't see anybody seriously challenging Biden if he runs for a second term.

My answer to the second question was maybe wishful thinking -- I could certainly see Vice President Harris possibly running unopposed in this scenario.  But I don't see her winning a general election.

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2 minutes ago, MrPotatoTed said:

Interesting take on Booker.  I like Booker and had hoped in 2020 for a Buttigieg/Booker ticket.  That said, I've always questioned how much of his passionate oratory is authentic and how much is performative.  It's always struck me as acting, not actual feelings.  There's a weird emptiness to the passion...I don't know, it's hard to describe.  On the flip side, the reason I'm such a passionate supporter of Pete is because I do believe that his oratory is more real than any other politician that I've ever seen.  Maybe #2 to Obama, but it's close.  Either way, I don't see Whitmer being a significant player three years from now.

As for the survey question, I don't see anybody seriously challenging Biden if he runs for a second term.

My answer to the second question was maybe wishful thinking -- I could certainly see Vice President Harris possibly running unopposed in this scenario.  But I don't see her winning a general election.

Booker used to live in government housing when he was mayor of Newark so he could better grasp the conditions of the less fortunate in his city. Things like that. It’s funny because your description of Booker is how I’d describe Buttigieg  (who I’d actually prefer over Booker). 

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Just now, vcczar said:

Booker used to live in government housing when he was mayor of Newark so he could better grasp the conditions of the less fortunate in his city. Things like that. It’s funny because your description of Booker is how I’d describe Buttigieg  (who I’d actually prefer over Booker). 

Oh, I know.  Booker's story is what makes me a Booker fan.  If it was just the weird emptiness of his passion, I wouldn't want him on Pete's ticket. ;c)

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@Timur I added those two centrists but there’s no way in hell they get nominated. Their ideology is like 15% of registered Democrats. They’re probably both massively unpopular with most democrats. I don’t think you’re taking this poll with the understanding of US electorate by party. Seems the selection was based on personal preference. See my first post. 

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57 minutes ago, vcczar said:

@Timur I added those two centrists but there’s no way in hell they get nominated. Their ideology is like 15% of registered Democrats. They’re probably both massively unpopular with most democrats. I don’t think you’re taking this poll with the understanding of US electorate by party. Seems the selection was based on personal preference. See my first post. 

I actually misunderstood the question like "what if Biden was polling at only 38%" in the Democratic primary".

I did not choose it by personal preference, though. I really thought they might have a chance, but it was somewhat of a guesswork.

But, I guess you're right.

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1 hour ago, MrPotatoTed said:

Interesting take on Booker.  I like Booker and had hoped in 2020 for a Buttigieg/Booker ticket.  That said, I've always questioned how much of his passionate oratory is authentic and how much is performative.  It's always struck me as acting, not actual feelings.  There's a weird emptiness to the passion...I don't know, it's hard to describe.  On the flip side, the reason I'm such a passionate supporter of Pete is because I do believe that his oratory is more real than any other politician that I've ever seen. 

My take on Booker and Buttigieg is completely the other way round. While I like Booker and think he genuinely wants to improve things, I think Buttigieg comes off as unauthentic and not trustworthy. Too bad Booker's campaign was way behind.

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9 minutes ago, ConservativeElector2 said:

My take on Booker and Buttigieg is completely the other way round. While I like Booker and think he genuinely wants to improve things, I think Buttigieg comes off as unauthentic and not trustworthy. Too bad Booker's campaign was way behind.

I think this perception is because unlike other politicians like Booker, Pete doesn't usually yell or cry or whatever -- he's usually very steady as he speaks, calmly explaining the facts or his vision for the future.  That resonates deeply with me.  I don't need the drama, I just need an explanation for what the situation is and what we're going to do about it.  It may all be a part of his military background, as with mine, possibly.

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On 11/12/2021 at 9:22 AM, MrPotatoTed said:

Interesting take on Booker.  I like Booker and had hoped in 2020 for a Buttigieg/Booker ticket.  That said, I've always questioned how much of his passionate oratory is authentic and how much is performative.  It's always struck me as acting, not actual feelings.  There's a weird emptiness to the passion...I don't know, it's hard to describe.  On the flip side, the reason I'm such a passionate supporter of Pete is because I do believe that his oratory is more real than any other politician that I've ever seen.  Maybe #2 to Obama, but it's close.  Either way, I don't see Whitmer being a significant player three years from now.

As for the survey question, I don't see anybody seriously challenging Biden if he runs for a second term.

My answer to the second question was maybe wishful thinking -- I could certainly see Vice President Harris possibly running unopposed in this scenario.  But I don't see her winning a general election.

I always thought the exact same. He seemed to me to always lack authenticity and seem psychopathic and unfeeling in a way. 

If we’re going with a 38% approval Biden I don’t think Kamala wins because the same poll had her at 28%. Buttigieg would be the only other choice imo because he’s the only other member of the Biden administration and someone the neoliberal crowd that elected Biden would gladly fall behind (as long as there’s no scandals) and he seems to have dodged the brunt of disapproval for the Biden/Harris admin. 

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