What are your predictions leading up to 2024 Election Day?

[vcczar]

New poll

[Pringles]

7 minutes ago, Patine said:

@Dobs is very optimistic about the COVID issue. Probably unrealistically and naively so, but hope springs eternal in differing ways in dark times. 😉 

Yeah... if it's gone on this long it ain't ending anytime soon. It may never fully end. One day it will fade and become less rampant, but it's gonna be here for a while. 

Edited November 29, 2021 by Pringles

[DakotaHale]

2 hours ago, Pringles said:

Yeah... if it's gone on this long it ain't ending anytime soon. It may never fully end. One day it will fade and become less rampant, but it's gonna be here for a while. 

The only way to get away from covid is to move to a red state 😎🐘

[vcczar]

35 minutes ago, DakotaHale said:

The only way to get away from covid is to move to a red state 😎🐘

 

8 minutes ago, Patine said:

Would you like to buy some swamp land and a bridge on the way? How about some snake oil and an electric jock strap, too? 😛

There's actually a shred of truth to what he says. Red states generally have a lower population density. It's more difficult for it to spread. The downside is that those states are likely to be under-vaccinated, even in their population centers. However, one can better avoid human contact in many red states, like Wyoming, Alaska, Montana, and Idaho. 

NYC is the opposite, obviously. They have a 90% vaccination rate. Today, they reported to have gone an entire day without a single COVID death for the first time. I was just in NYC last week and it was interesting to be in a place in which more than 50% of the people walking around were wearing mask, even though they weren't inside of a building. 

[DakotaHale]

Just now, vcczar said:

 

There's actually a shred of truth to what he says. Red states generally have a lower population density. It's more difficult for it to spread. The downside is that those states are likely to be under-vaccinated, even in their population centers. However, one can better avoid human contact in many red states, like Wyoming, Alaska, Montana, and Idaho. 

NYC is the opposite, obviously. They have a 90% vaccination rate. Today, they reported to have gone an entire day without a single COVID death for the first time. I was just in NYC last week and it was interesting to be in a place in which more than 50% of the people walking around were wearing mask, even though they weren't inside of a building. 

Idk look at Florida. One of the more densely populated and older states and their death rate per capita has been better than New York. Texas is actually doing even better than Florida.

[DakotaHale]

1 minute ago, DakotaHale said:

Idk look at Florida. One of the more densely populated and older states and their death rate per capita has been better than New York. Texas is actually doing even better than Florida.

[vcczar]

Just now, DakotaHale said:

Idk look at Florida. One of the more densely populated and older states and their death rate per capita has been better than New York. Texas is actually doing even better than Florida.

Texas is odd because it's got 6 major population centers and then a lot of open land like Wyoming. I think the NY/FL thing is mainly because the worst of the pandemic is over. NY had the initial problem of attempting to halt in in their city with 20 million residents, workers, and tourists in a small concentrated area. 

Florida's was pretty bad, but it is doing well last time I looked (a few months ago). It's also worth noting that much of the older population are former NYers (often Jewish), likely vaccinated, boosted, and masked.  

[vcczar]

2 minutes ago, DakotaHale said:

NJ has the highest population density of any state. The southern part is very anti-mandate, anti-mask. Doesn't surprise me. Notice that 8 of these 10 are Red States (counting AZ and FL as red). 

[DakotaHale]

1 minute ago, vcczar said:

NJ has the highest population density of any state. The southern part is very anti-mandate, anti-mask. Doesn't surprise me. Notice that 8 of these 10 are Red States (counting AZ and FL as red). 

Just realized I pulled up the death rate per 100,000 covid positive people. Should have pulled up the cases per capita. (Makes sense there’s red states considering they tend to be more likely to be poor, obese, and unvaccinated, like Alabama and Mississippi). 

[vcczar]

2 minutes ago, Patine said:

@vcczar and @DakotaHale still completely ignoring my point here like it doesn't matter and carrying with misleading generalizations as though they're more reliable than they are... 😶

Doesn't Yukon and NWT have a high % of indigenous people? In the US, our indigenous people get hit harder with Covid. I assume it's the same there.

[DakotaHale]

1 minute ago, Patine said:

@vcczar and @DakotaHale still completely ignoring my point here like it doesn't matter and carrying with misleading generalizations as though they're more reliable than they are... 😶

If you want my opinion I think that the case distribution seems largely randomized. There’s blue and red states at the top and blue and red states at the bottom. Rural states like Alabama and Mississippi at the top, and rural states like Montana and Idaho at the bottom. New York and New England had huge explosions of cases in early 2020 whereas Florida had their huge explosion more recently. I don’t think it’s possible to pin it on a single thing but sometimes it’s nice to be able to find a pattern or two. 

[vcczar]

1 minute ago, Patine said:

So do Alaska, South Dakota, Utah, Wyoming, and DEFINITELY Oklahoma - all of whom are Red States. What is their infection rate, out of curiosity?

I have no idea what their infection rates are. I know it is high in OK and in the indigenous communities. I've just always assumed those Northern provinces in Canada has a much higher indigenous population per capita than in the US. 

Here are the 10 states with the highest Native American populations. This is kind of misleading because most of these people might not be mostly indigenous or living in indigenous communities:

1. Alaska (20.32%)
2. Oklahoma (13.19%)
3. New Mexico (10.75%)
4. South Dakota (10.09%)
5. Montana (8.00%)
6. North Dakota (6.51%)
7. Arizona (5.31%)
8. Wyoming (3.63%)
9. Oregon (2.99%)
10. Washington (2.82%)

[jvikings1]

6 hours ago, DakotaHale said:

If you want my opinion I think that the case distribution seems largely randomized. There’s blue and red states at the top and blue and red states at the bottom. Rural states like Alabama and Mississippi at the top, and rural states like Montana and Idaho at the bottom. New York and New England had huge explosions of cases in early 2020 whereas Florida had their huge explosion more recently. I don’t think it’s possible to pin it on a single thing but sometimes it’s nice to be able to find a pattern or two. 

It makes sense that things would be random. A spike in one area will result in more cases. But then natural immunity will be heightened in that area which results in less transmission and lower rates for a while. And since the shot doesn't prevent one from getting the virus (or spreading it), getting rates up doesn't necessarily stop this cycle from occurring.

[Hestia]

2 hours ago, jvikings1 said:

It makes sense that things would be random. A spike in one area will result in more cases. But then natural immunity will be heightened in that area which results in less transmission and lower rates for a while. And since the shot doesn't prevent one from getting the virus (or spreading it), getting rates up doesn't necessarily stop this cycle from occurring.

It doesn't but it does definitely crush it for some time, as NYC shows. 

[vcczar]

So it seems that people expect things to generally get better, but Biden’s approval will stay at 42%, and the GOP will win in 2024. 

[DakotaHale]

On 12/1/2021 at 12:41 PM, Patine said:

And you wonder why I routinely lack optimism about American politics... 🤨

DeSantis/Tulsi 2024 !!

[MrPotatoTed]

On 12/1/2021 at 11:42 AM, vcczar said:

So it seems that people expect things to generally get better, but Biden’s approval will stay at 42%, and the GOP will win in 2024. 

My basic premise is that most people generally pay no attention at all to the things that don’t directly impact them or their families, have no idea what inflation is, don’t particularly care what the unemployment rate is, etc.

They like Biden because he’s not Trump/Sanders, or they hate Biden because he’s not Trump/Sanders and Biden not being Trump/Sanders is unlikely to change between now and 2024, so approval rates won’t change.