Entrecampos Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 I analysed every pollster deeply, using exclusively math. I remember I made good predictions with a more simple rating in 2021 Virginia/NJ elections. This the top 20 Pollsters with at least 40 polls in their history. Ranking, Name, Expected Error Accuracy 1 - Trafalgar 3.93% error 2 - Public Opinion Strategis 3.95% error 3 - Strategic Vision LLC 4.23% error 4 - Landmark Communications 4.42% error 5 - SurveyUSA 4.44% error 6 - Siena College 4.46% error 7 - Selzer and Co. 4.52% error 8 - Research & Polling Co. 4.56% error 9 - Mason-Dixon Polling Strategy 4.57% error 10 - Rasmussen Reports 4.58% error 11 - Emerson College 4.63% error 12 - Gallup 4.65% error 13 - Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. 4.77% error 14 - Marist College 4.82% error 15 - ABC News/The Washington Post 4.84% error 16 - TCJ Research 4.86% 17 - Monmouth University 4.87% error 18 - We Ask America 4.93% error 19 - Dan Jones & Associates 4.95% error 20 - YouGov 4.96% error 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timur Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 42 minutes ago, Entrecampos said: I analysed every pollster deeply, using exclusively math. I remember I made good predictions with a more simple rating in 2021 Virginia/NJ elections. This the top 20 Pollsters with at least 40 polls in their history. Ranking, Name, Expected Error Accuracy 1 - Trafalgar 3.93% error 2 - Public Opinion Strategis 3.95% error 3 - Strategic Vision LLC 4.23% error 4 - Landmark Communications 4.42% error 5 - SurveyUSA 4.44% error 6 - Siena College 4.46% error 7 - Selzer and Co. 4.52% error 8 - Research & Polling Co. 4.56% error 9 - Mason-Dixon Polling Strategy 4.57% error 10 - Rasmussen Reports 4.58% error 11 - Emerson College 4.63% error 12 - Gallup 4.65% error 13 - Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. 4.77% error 14 - Marist College 4.82% error 15 - ABC News/The Washington Post 4.84% error 16 - TCJ Research 4.86% 17 - Monmouth University 4.87% error 18 - We Ask America 4.93% error 19 - Dan Jones & Associates 4.95% error 20 - YouGov 4.96% error Where is Ann Selzer? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Entrecampos Posted December 28, 2021 Author Share Posted December 28, 2021 (edited) Some USA predictions with this model. Biden vs Trump Some States Arizona 50.4% Trump 43.7% Biden Florida 49.6% Trump 48.9% Biden Georgia 48.3% Trump 45.1% Biden Iowa 52.6% Trump 40.7% Biden Michigan 51.4% Trump 42.7% Biden New Hampshire 47.1% Trump 46.7% Biden Pennsylvania 50.3% Trump 45.3% Biden Wisconsin 46.9% Trump 43.9% Biden 70% Polls + 30% Direct Swing or 80% Polls (If 2+Polls) +20% Direct Swing. Edited December 28, 2021 by Entrecampos 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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