Entrecampos

On 12/16/2023 at 7:05 PM, vcczar said:

and to add to the above @Entrecampos. Contact @ebrk85 he has openings in two playtests.

Ok, I will start to use the forum everyday. I will contact.

On 2/5/2022 at 9:35 PM, Entrecampos said:

I think Presidential Humberto Delgado vs Americo Thomaz in 1958 or 1969 National Assembly elections would be super interesting, even if those elections were fake. I can try to do something by 1910s times, but would be much more harder, I would need to create something alternative based in my perspectives, because the lack of information.
Anyway, my first scenario would be 1975.

1958 Elections by municipality.

Between, I made Portugal by municipality, so this scenario turns possible.

I bought the game, I would like to be Tester.

On 11/7/2022 at 12:08 AM, Entrecampos said:

I didnt seen Vczaar map, lets see if its close to mine.

Im happy, my algorithm did fantastic as did in 2020. Third election in a row that I do better than Nate Silver.

On 10/31/2022 at 3:21 PM, vcczar said:

 

US Senate Map: 

Interesting... We disagree in nevada.

Your algorithm is good, congratulations!

I didnt seen Vczaar map, lets see if its close to mine.

Im not singer... Far from that, but I like to sing and Im trying to learn and improve with you tube videos. I did 2 covers of a Portuguese band group. One is older, the other was recorded today. In YouTube sounds worse than in Vocaroo, so I will let both.  Now I will let Vocaroo... (Amanha Tou Melhor is another recording, Boa Memoria is the same).If you want quality, focus in Vocaroo. https://vocaroo.com/113CQy31HgN1
Vocaroo | Online voice recorder

Do you think I can be good singing if I continue to practice or not? Unfortunately, Im better singing in Camoes, Saramago and Pessoa language than in Shakespeare language =(

On 9/4/2022 at 1:13 AM, vcczar said:

As many of you know, I created an algorithm that accurately predicted the 2020 Presidential Election, excluding ME-2. 

I'm now attempting to predict the 2022 Midterms. This algorithm, like the presidential one, will be updated until Election Day. I must say I am much less confident in my ability to predict midterms. If the election were today, this is what the algorithm is showing.

Note: This is all from the Democrat perspective.

Bold marks where my algorithm selects a different winner from most polls:

 

Dem Race	Win?	Algorithm
Murray (WA)	D	11.86666667
Cortez Masto (NV)	D	1.7
Kelly (AZ)	D	3.6
Bennet (CO)	D	8.1
Busch Valentine (MO)	R	-12.66666667
Franken (IA)	R	-8.666666667
Barnes (WI)	R	-0.1333333333
Ryan (OH)	R	-4.766666667
Demings (FL)	R	-3.433333333
Warnock (GA)	R	-0.4
Beasley (NC)	R	-1.433333333
Fetterman (PA)	D	2.9
Hassan (NH)	D	3.4
Kotek (OR)	D	2.366666667
Hobbs (AZ)	R	-0.8666666667
Lujan Grisham (NM)	D	5.566666667
Polis (CO)	D	7.466666667
Kelly (KS)	R	-3.066666667
O'Rourke (TX)	R	-7.7
Walz (MN)	D	3.5
Whaley (OH)	R	-5.533333333
Evers (WI)	D	1
Crist (FL)	R	-8.766666667
Abrams (GA)	R	-6.733333333
Cunningham (SC)	R	-12.53333333
Shapiro (PA)	D	2.866666667
Lamont (CT)	D	5.833333333
Mills (ME)	D	4.633333333
Whitmer (MI)	D	4.766666667
Sisolak (NV)	R	-0.2333333333

 

 

 

 

My prediction was worse in Winning states, but better in voting shares, if you remember. But i think both of us did a good job.

Why people continue to say that Portuguese Communist Party changed and isnt Soviet anymore???? They are pure Commie! Support Russia, support North Korea and continue to have 4% in polls.

O PCP emitiu esta quarta-feira uma nota fortemente crítica do ex-líder soviético Mikhail Gorbachev, responsabilizando-o pela restauração do capitalismo na Rússia, sem qualquer palavra de pesar pela sua morte na terça-feira. "Gorbachev foi um dos principais responsáveis pela destruição da União Soviética e a restauração do capitalismo na Rússia, quando o que se impunha era o aperfeiçoamento do socialismo", lê-se na abertura do breve comunicado de apenas um parágrafo e 123 palavras. Para os comunistas, a intervenção de Gorbachev "contribuiu para abrir caminho à contra-ofensiva do imperialismo para recuperar as posições perdidas ao longo do século XX e impor a sua hegemonia no plano mundial, com as graves consequências que daí advieram para os direitos dos trabalhadores, a soberania dos povos, a segurança na Europa e a paz no mundo". A comprovar esta ideia estão, segundo o PCP, "as guerras da Jugoslávia, do Iraque, da Líbia, da Síria, do Iémen, da Ucrânia, entre outras". "O reconhecimento e rasgados elogios que lhe são despendidos pelos responsáveis dos EUA, da UE e da NATO falam por si", termina o comunicado do PCP.

The PCP on Wednesday issued a strongly critical note from former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, blaming him for the restoration of capitalism in Russia, without any word of regret for his death on Tuesday. "Gorbachev was one of the main responsible for the destruction of the Soviet Union and the restoration of capitalism in Russia, when what was imposed was the improvement of socialism," reads the opening of the brief communiqué of only one paragraph and 123 words.
For the Communists, Gorbachev's intervention "helped pave the way for the counteroffensive of imperialism to recover the positions lost throughout the 20th century and impose their hegemony on the world level, with the serious consequences that have aprofound for workers' rights, the sovereignty of peoples, security in Europe and peace in the world."Proving this idea, according to the PCP, "the wars of Yugoslavia, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Yemen, Ukraine, among others." "The recognition and tearing of praise given to us, EU and NATO officials speak for themselves," the PCP statement concludes.
 

On 8/28/2022 at 2:33 AM, vcczar said:

https://historymonocle.com/2020/11/02/2020-election-prediction/

I think 2020 special elections made me aware of Trump surpassing polls... Republicans did well in New York 27, Wisconsin 7, California 25, etc... Idk how people didnt see it.

https://twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/1563999007466262530

A clear signal that we can forget a red wave.

5 hours ago, vcczar said:

I think there's a group larger than 3 are all about the same -- Emerson, Trafagar, Rasmussen, Marist, SurveyUSA, PPP, Monmouth, Siena, Quinnipiac, Selzer, TIPP, and some others. And none of these are good enough to be taken alone. These and the others have to be sort of used in tandem, paying close attention to which way they are trending. 

Good list. All that you said are in my top 50,except one. 

On 11/2/2021 at 6:15 PM, Entrecampos said:

Things changed. Final prediction.

Data for Progress is really a horrible pollster like I did put here and like you seen in NY-19 giving +8% GOP. But my pollsters model was improved since then. Many pollsters changed position.

My map for Senate.
My map for Governors.
My prediction for House is 223  GOP - 212 DEM
I need many more polls in most places.

On 8/23/2022 at 9:05 PM, vcczar said:

All but the last question on the polls are based on a YouGov poll. I generally find these polls garbage. 538 gives them a B+, even if I think they're C-range. They would know better than me. Anyway, todays polls show the following:

• Biden wins in a landslide if Trump runs independent. 
• Trump wins in a landslide if Cheney runs independent. 
• Biden beats Trump by about 1 to 5 pts
• Biden beats DeSantis by 1 to 3 pts
• Trump beats DeSantis in the primaries by 18 to 17 pts. 
• Trump as a 3rd party candidate gets about 19% of the vote, while Cheney gets about 11% of the vote. 

For you what are the best 3 pollsters?

On 8/24/2022 at 4:13 PM, vcczar said:

Five Reasons:

1. There was a bellwether special election in NY yesterday. Democrats won the district, despite the district going to Biden by only 2% margin in 2022. This district should have gone GOP even under just normal midterm conditions. This is a bad sign for Republicans. 
2. Generic Ballots are still showing a slight preference for Democrats on average, according to 538. Even RCP doesn't show wave, but rather something of a tossup. 
3. The % chance that Democrats hold the US senate are over 60% and the US House is 21 or 22%. Both of these have generally been trending towards Democrats. It seems likely Democrats will lose the US House, but they seem like they could gain in the US Senate, in fact. 
4. While Biden's approval is low, Trump's favorability is just as low or lower. So long as Trump = GOP, it is hard to imagine Generic Ballots favoring a Red Wave. Trump is not capable of unified support and a party led by him is not either. 
5. Biden's approval is ticking upward. Gas prices are lowering. It seems more likely than not that the worst of Biden's 2022 has already passed. If true, this could mean that Generic Ballots trend more towards Democrats, % chances of holding US Senate and US House migrate towards Democrats, and Trump's legal battles could make the GOP even more unpopular. 

I'd say Democrats are in a BEST CASE scenario for having an incumbent president with a 40 to 41% approval rating. Let me underscore this by saying, I don't think Democrats deserve any of this good luck. However, I do think the GOP --drunk on Trump cultism--deserves all of this bad luck. I've never been in a more positive mood despite my preferred party likely losing the US House. 

What I expect is that Biden wins in 2024, however narrowly. That Democrats might lose a US Senate seat in that election but still have a 50-50+VP advantage, but then also regain the US House in 2024. This will mostly be because I think Biden is going to be on something of an upswing between now and the end of 2024, even if it isn't terribly noticeable. He inherited a crisis, and the thing with that, is that one usually can only go upwards. A good analogy is Barack Obama following George W Bush. 

To get a Red Wave, the GOP has to hope Biden gets hit with something big in less than 3 months. I don't think that's happening. GOP is really blowing their opportunity by now dropping Trump right after his defeat. However, they might be stuck with him. Disowning him would split the party. So they're screwed. 

Yes, we will not have a Red Wave for sure.

OBS. I would like to see your 2020 map, I remember you were right in all states, would like to see it again.

On 8/16/2022 at 2:29 AM, Entrecampos said:

For now I will give Generic Ballot.

44.3% Republicans
42.4% Democrats

Small Update

43.7% Republicans (-0.6%) 43.1% Democrats (+0.7%)

For now I will give Generic Ballot.

44.3% Republicans
42.4% Democrats

On 4/23/2022 at 5:50 PM, Entrecampos said:

My final is 57.0% Macron and 43.0% le Pen. 

Not a bad prediction.

People are attacking PCP billboards, calling them the PC Putin party, or P`Z´P.
Many people ask for illegalizating them for refusing to be in parliament when Zelensky spoken. Its the biggest issue in Portugal politics at the moment, lol.

Germany with 2 votes and Armageddon Iron Cross 1939 with 1 vote is choosen by me (5 scenarios with 1 vote).

On 4/21/2022 at 9:58 AM, Entrecampos said:

My prediction is 56.9% Macron and 43.1% Le Pen. Tomorrow I will show my final.

My final is 57.0% Macron and 43.0% le Pen. 

My prediction is 56.9% Macron and 43.1% Le Pen. Tomorrow I will show my final.

Poll. The first nation with 3 choices and the first start date with 2 choices will be elected.

9 minutes ago, Patine said:

Putin is far more ideologically Far-Right than the Government in Ukraine, and Putin's no friend of Communism, ideologically (just ask Gennady Zyuganov, the General Secretary of Communist Party of the Russian Federation and the leader of the biggest opposition party in the State Duma).

I agree... Its so weird to see a left wing party supporting a far right dictator... Portugal is a strange place.