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Northern Mariana Islands GOP Caucus - March 15th, 2016

Carly Fiorina - 165 votes (34.9%) 6 delegates

Marco Rubio - 140 votes (29.8%)

Ted Cruz - 96 votes (20.4%)

Ben Carson - 70 votes (14.9%)

471 votes cast / 6 delegates allocated

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Ohio GOP Primary - March 15th, 2016

Carly Fiorina - 779,672 votes (39.2%) 63 delegates

Ted Cruz - 654,368 votes (32.9%)

Ben Carson - 354,035 votes (17.8%)

Marco Rubio - 200,885 votes (10.1%)

1,988,960 votes cast / 63 delegates allocated

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State of the Race Post-Super 3sday

All those predicting a turning point in the race as the March 15th winner-take-all deadline was crossed and the race turned toward Northern states, bringing 8 million Republicans out to vote, were correct. For the first time since South Carolina, Carly Fiorina is now the delegate leader for the Republican nomination. Following strong performance in Illinois and Ohio and a shocking upset in Missouri, propelled by endorsements from Congresswomen Vicki Hartzler and Ann Wagner, Fiorina has taken the lead from Texas Senator Ted Cruz, who, for his part, carried North Carolina in a slimmer-than-expected margin. Cruz's woes were compounded by the fact that while Illinois, Ohio, and Missouri are winner-take-all/winner-take-most states, North Carolina is purely proportional, blunting any delegate boost he may have gained from the last in the south primary.

Fiorina's campaign has been clearly aided by the consolidation of most female Republican voters around her, she has sold her story and her message to great effect, with most exit polls suggesting a gender gap of epic proportion, with Republican Women's groups across the country organizing for the new frontrunner en masse while male Republicans are far more divided, Ted Cruz having a smaller but clear edge among that demographic. Fiorina's strength was clearest among women in the suburbs of St. Louis, Kansas City, Chicago, Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati, Raleigh, and Charlotte where, in those cities, she is projected to have won up to 70% of the vote of female suburbanites. These margins have allowed her to run away with victories in suburban congressional districts and win convincing margins in states where the base of the GOP remains suburban, affluent, and college-educated.

Though, it was not all good news for the Fiorina camp. After pouring millions into Florida and winning important victories in the Tampa Bay, Orlando, and Lee Island Coastal areas, she has fallen just short of toppling Senator Marco Rubio in his home state, extending the scrappy candidate's campaign, for now at least. Senator Rubio has received a delegate infusion of 99 delegates from the winner-take-all contest, more than doubling his current total. While a Fiorina win would have been a death knell for Rubio and gone a long way in cementing her as the eventual nominee, Rubio has ensured the race will remain protracted and drawn out for at least a few weeks longer. His campaign is now taking aim at Arizona as its next big hurdle, with events in the Copper State planned all next week.

Dr. Ben Carson remains a persistent thorn in the side of Senator Ted Cruz, who sources claim is growing increasingly irritated with the retired neurosurgeon, though, for the first time, DNN (Dob News Network) can confirm that talks are underway between the two camps. Carson has slipped to 4th place in delegate totals but remains a distant third in popular vote totals due to the asymmetry of support for Rubio. 

For now, the Fiorina and Rubio campaigns are both declaring last night a victory while Ted Cruz continues to enjoy support from Movement Conservatives and Tea Party activists but must consolidate this base if he hopes to take back his lead.

Candidate Standings - March 16th, 2016

Carly Fiorina - 6,058,826 (29.59%) / 496 delegates (20.06%)

Ted Cruz - 6,023,468 (29.42%) / 433 delegates (17.52%)

Marco Rubio - 3,092,770 (15.11%) / 207 delegates (8.37%)

Ben Carson - 3,416,489 (16.69%) / 180 delegates (7.28%)

Chris Christie - 1,049,958 (5.13%) / 50 delegates (2.02%) [withdrawn, endorsed Fiorina]

John Kasich - 528,693 (2.58%) / 26 delegates (1.05%) [withdrawn, endorsed Fiorina]

Others - 303,108 (1.49%) / 7 delegates (0.28%)

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Edited by Dobs
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Thirteenth GOP Debate - March 21st, 2016

Salt Lake City, Utah

Center-Right: Carly Fiorina

Center-Left: Ted Cruz

2nd from Right: Marco Rubio

2nd from Left: Ben Carson

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The Thirteenth Debate was not originally on the RNC debate calendar. However, following the results from the first three contests, another was added with an eye toward the Arizona and Utah contests. Accordingly, Immigration, Energy, and Cultural Issues were particularly poignant. Following a late-breaking endorsement from former nominee John McCain, Fiorina's foreign policy was also centered. The RNC announced earlier this month that the Utah debate will not be the last, with another scheduled next week for Milwaukee and a "final" event in early April in Manhattan.

Fiorina, with her new frontrunner status, was expectedly attacked as too liberal on social issues by Carson and too weak on immigration by Cruz. With a large Mormon presence in the crowd, Carson picked up much support among Western Religious conservatives among who had been building momentum in the Idaho Caucus and Wyoming Convention. Though still thought to be a Cruz stronghold, a split among Mormons similar to the one Carson created among Evangelicals could be catastrophic.

For her part, Fiorina once again emphasizes her hawkish foreign policy and business experience to appeal to conservative suburbanites while also outflanking the rest of the field on her innovative energy policy, which emphasizes private sector collaboration to improve green energy technology and modernize the American grid. Among the many methods used, she said, will be Arizona Solar.

Rubio failed to have any breakthrough moments, lampooned for trotting out his Spanish skills yet again in what seems to now be a canned routine, to which Fiorina responded in Italian, quipping "It doesn't matter what language you say it in, it's just bad policy" garnering extended laughter from the room and other candidates.

Fiorina was put on the defense for her comparatively liberal stances on immigration, including a pathway to citizenship, but she clamped down on her support for E-Verify and more spending on Border Defense and Drug Cartel Prosecution, using the moment to segue into a need for unity, much as Reagan did, criticizing the concept of mass deportation as unAmerican. This statement, bold to make in a GOP primary, may pay off or may sink her chances along the border.

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Arizona GOP Primary - March 22nd, 2016

Carly Fiorina - 192,204 votes (30.8%) 58 delegates

Marco Rubio - 190,332 votes (30.5%)

Ted Cruz - 173,483 votes (27.8%)

Ben Carson - 68,020 votes (10.9%)

624,039 votes cast / 58 delegates allocated

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Edited by Dobs
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Utah GOP Caucus - March 22nd, 2016

Ted Cruz - 85,333 votes (44.6%) 20 delegates

Ben Carson - 58,738 votes (30.7%) 14 delegates

Carly Fiorina - 34,249 votes (17.9%) 6 delegates

Marco Rubio - 13,010 votes (6.8%)

191,330 votes cast / 40 delegates allocated

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State of the Race Post-Western Tuesday

It was a relatively quiet week in the race for the Republican nomination compared to those before it. With a Fiorina win in Arizona and a Cruz victory in Utah, the race is quickly shaping up to be a 2-person contest for the rest of the way. Fiorina was able to build on wide support in the Phoenix and Tucson areas to eke out a victory over Marco Rubio, who had rested his campaign's viability on a surprise win in the Grand Canyon state. Fiorina won another 58 delegates in the winner-take-all contest and Rubio has finally decided to suspend his campaign. After a victory in Florida last week netted him another 99 delegates, he finds himself in an important position come the July convention in the likely scenario that no candidate reaches a majority. Rubio has not announced any endorsement, a move that sources close to the campaign pin as likely jockeying for a position to provide the majority to either Cruz or Fiorina, depending on who pulls ahead. 

Meanwhile, Ted Cruz won a decisive victory in the Utah caucus, but with Ben Carson winning a sizeable portion of working-class and non-college-educated Mormons, he has been deprived of majority support and thus has had to share the delegates from the Beehive State. Nevertheless, the distant third place for Fiorina has again proven the strength of support for the conservative half of the field in the Western states. The Carson campaign continues to stonewall the Cruz campaign, according to DNN sources, and will press on as long as necessary until certain concessions are made. Publically, Carson has thanked "the great and faithful people of Utah for their support as we march on to the East, including my home state of Maryland."

Both Fiorina and Cruz have thanked Rubio for running his race and praised his campaign, a move that pundits all agree is indicative of two campaigns in desperate need of his 207 delegates.

Meanwhile, the American Samoa GOP Convention has finished off the set of Insular contests for the GOP Nomination. The well-funded Fiorina campaign has surgically targeted the small island caucuses and conventions and, as a result, has secured 21 of 24 delegates from the territories not including Puerto Rico. She has also secured all 16 of DC's delegates in a concerted effort to win a majority at the small District Convention which was held. These contests, while small and despite flying under the radar, have amounted to a large boost for Fiorina and represent growing support for Fiorina among Hispanic, Asian, and Pacific Islander voters, particularly now with the exit of Rubio as she welcomes more diversity into her growing coalition.

Nevertheless, the race remains incredibly close, with Fiorina clinging to a 2,999 popular vote lead of nearly 21.3 million Republican Primary voters. Though, she maintains a healthier, but still slim, 111 delegate lead.

Candidate Standings - March 23rd, 2016

Carly Fiorina - 6,285,284 (29.52%) / 565 delegates (22.86%)

Ted Cruz - 6,282,285 (29.51%) / 454 delegates (18.37%)

Marco Rubio 3,296,112 (15.48%) / 207 delegates (8.37%) [withdrawn]

Ben Carson - 3,543,247 (16.64%) / 194 delegates (7.85%)

Chris Christie - 1,049,958 (5.13%) / 50 delegates (2.02%) [withdrawn, endorsed Fiorina]

John Kasich - 528,693 (2.58%) / 26 delegates (1.05%) [withdrawn, endorsed Fiorina]

Others - 303,108 (1.43%) / 7 delegates (0.28%)

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Edited by Dobs
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Fourteenth GOP Debate - March 29th, 2016

Milwaukee, Wisconsin

Center: Carly Fiorina

Center-Right: Ted Cruz

Center-Left: Ben Carson

---

The RNC announced that it would convert a CNN Town Hall initially scheduled ahead of the Wisconsin primary into a CNN-moderated debate in early March when it became clear that there would still be vigorous competition for the Republican nomination come April. This debate, the first featuring only three candidates, is viewed as a test of Fiorina without Rubio on the stage, where she is likely to be the concentrated focus of right-wing barrages from both Carson and Cruz, and also a test of Cruz's ability to control the right-wing lane as gadfly Carson persists to run to his right on cultural issues while being vaguely to his left on some economic concerns.

Ultimately, Cruz was able to hold his lane together in the debate. Following an endorsement from Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker and the general coordination of conservative talk radio in Milwaukee, Cruz has been able to mobilize a task force of movement conservatives to oppose "California Carly," as the Cruz camp has dubbed her, for her more liberal social positions. Fiorina, for her part, has shot back harshly in the areas of foreign policy and business experience, pointing out her conservative economics and hawkish view of the American role in the world. She also emphasized her pro-life position, shying away from talking about LGBT issues and immigration where she has struck a much more unifying, moderate-friendly tone in the past.

Cruz will likely benefit from this debate in the upcoming North Dakota Caucus and Wisconsin Primary, as Fiorina was kept on the backfoot on conservative pet issues.

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Wisconsin GOP Primary - April 5th, 2016

Ted Cruz - 439,060 votes (39.7%) 27 delegates

Carly Fiorina - 430,212 votes (38.9%) 15 delegates

Ben Carson - 236,672 votes (21.4%)

1,105,944 votes cast / 42 delegates allocated

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Colorado GOP Convention - April 9th, 2016

Ted Cruz - 17 delegates (9 District + 8 State)

Carly Fiorina - 14 delegates (12 District + 2 State)

Ben Carson - 3 delegates (3 State)

Vote Held by District Conventions and State Central Committee / 34 delegates allocated

(County Map best reflects Congressional district borders, where Fiorina carried 1, 2, 6, and 7 and Cruz carried 3, 4, and 5)

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Fifteenth GOP Debate - April 12th, 2016

Manhattan, New York

Center: Carly Fiorina

Center-Right: Ted Cruz

Center-Left: Ben Carson

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Convening in Fox News Studio for the fifteenth and final debate, the grizzled field of three remaining candidates have arrived in Manhattan for the week leading up to the crucial New York primary and the contests which will follow it. These contests, featuring delegates awarded in New York, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island, are all viewed as some sort of Fiorina advantage, but the real question remains whether Fiorina will rack up enough support to be significant distance between her and Cruz, and perhaps beat the increasingly likely chance of a contested convention.

The debate itself featured particularly strong moments from Fiorina who leaned into Cruz's criticisms of her as a "coastal elite" and earlier remarks about how a New Yorker or Californian could not understand an Iowan, flipping the script and appealing directly to Northeastern voters, hammering her own record on national security, particular her role as a tech CEO following 9/11, she was met with raucous applause for her foreign policy and national security planks, while attempts by Cruz and Carson to appeal to their evangelical base largely fell flat.

It is unsurprising that Fiorina walked away from this debate the winner, but this was compounded by the Cruz-Carson lane now seriously shrinking in a region with few voters for the right-flank of the party to go around in the first place, putting serious pressure on the flagging Carson to drop out before it is too late. For the first time in the history of the race, Senator Cruz has directly called for Carson's withdrawal following the fall-out of the debate.

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Candidate Standings - April 13th, 2016

Carly Fiorina - 6,715,516 votes (29.99%) / 600 delegates (24.27%)

Ted Cruz -  6,721,379 (30.01%) / 515 delegates (20.83%)

Marco Rubio - 3,296,112 (14.72%) / 207 delegates (8.37%) [withdrawn]

Ben Carson - 3,779,924 (16.88%) / 199 delegates (8.05%)

Chris Christie - 1,049,958 (4.69%) / 50 delegates (2.02%) [withdrawn, endorsed Fiorina]

John Kasich - 528,693 (2.36%) / 26 delegates (1.05%) [withdrawn, endorsed Fiorina]

Others - 303,108 (1.36%) / 7 delegates (0.28%)

23,331,217 votes cast / 2,472 delegates total / 1,237 to win

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Edited by Dobs
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New York GOP Primary - April 19th, 2016

Carly Fiorina - 520,709 votes (55.6%) 88 delegates

Ted Cruz - 298,752 votes (31.9%) 4 delegates

Ben Carson - 117,066 votes (12.5%)

936,527 votes cast / 92 delegates allocated

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Edited by Dobs
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Connecticut GOP Primary - April 26th, 2016

Carly Fiorina - 128,950 votes (60.4%) 25 delegates

Ted Cruz - 61,272 votes (28.7%)

Ben Carson - 23,271 votes (10.9%)

213,493 votes cast / 25 delegates allocated

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Delaware GOP Primary - April 26th, 2016

Carly Fiorina - 33,548 votes (48.0%) 16 delegates

Ted Cruz - 19,011 votes (27.2%)

Ben Carson - 17,333 votes (24.8%)

69,892 votes cast / 16 delegates allocated

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Maryland GOP Primary - April 26th, 2016

Carly Fiorina - 255,241 votes (55.6%) 38 delegates

Ben Carson - 127,620 votes (27.8%)

Ted Cruz - 75,287 votes (16.4%)

459,066 votes cast / 38 delegates allocated

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Edited by Dobs
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Pennsylvania GOP Primary - April 26th, 2016

Carly Fiorina - 731,864 votes (45.9%) 54 delegates

Ted Cruz - 554,987 votes (34.8%) 10 delegates

Ben Carson - 307,734 votes (19.3%) 4 delegates

1,594,475 votes / 68 delegates allocated

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Edited by Dobs
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Rhode Island GOP Primary - April 26th, 2016

Carly Fiorina - 37,336 votes (59.9%) 11 delegates

Ted Cruz - 19,198 votes (30.8%) 5 delegates

Ben Carson - 5,797 votes (9.3%)

62,331 votes cast / 16 delegates allocated

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State of the Race Post-ACELA Primaries

Carly Fiorina walked away from the Northeastern primary states in the clearly dominant position, notching wins across the Eastern Seaboard from Maryland to Rhode Island. The Californian was able to capture majorities in the New York, Connecticut, Maryland, and Rhode Island primaries while winning clear pluralities in Delaware and Pennsylvania. Accordingly, Fiorina's delegate lead has now crested nearly 300 as she hits the 2/3rds mark on her path to the nomination. She is now, officially, the only candidate who can reach 1,237, though this will require strong performances in the remaining contests and heavy support among unbound RNC delegates. Fiorina's coalition of middle and upper-class suburbanites has allowed her to dominate in these Northeastern primaries, with strong support from local endorsers like Maryland Governor Larry Hogan.

Meanwhile, Ted Cruz has vowed to continue on to the convention and, in a rally held in Indianapolis, Indiana this evening, has announced, in a shock, that Ben Carson will be his running mate, should he become the nominee. Dr. Carson was then invited on stage and, with no talk of the crushing defeat for both the Cruz and Carson campaigns, announced that he would suspend his campaign in order to join the Cruz ticket as a candidate for Vice President. The newly-minted Cruz/Carson ticket, the most diverse in the history of a major party, is staking much on Indiana in an effort to stop Fiorina's momentum and force a contested convention. The Fiorina campaign has not responded to this development, and the announcement was in heavy competition with the coverage of Fiorina's 5 wins in the Northeast. Now, as the campaign turns back West for its final leg in May and June, most pundits agree that the campaigns will be on even ground, with some states favoring Cruz/Carson, while the frontrunner Fiorina is favored in others.

Candidate Standings - April 27th, 2016

Carly Fiorina - 8,423,164 (32.74%) / 832 delegates (33.66%)

Ted Cruz -  7,749,886 (30.12%) / 534 delegates (21.60%)

Marco Rubio - 3,296,112 (12.81%) / 207 delegates (8.37%) [withdrawn]

Ben Carson - 4,378,745 (16.88%) / 203 delegates (8.21%) [withdrawn, endorsed Cruz]

Chris Christie - 1,049,958 (4.08%) / 50 delegates (2.02%) [withdrawn, endorsed Fiorina]

John Kasich - 528,693 (2.05%) / 26 delegates (1.05%) [withdrawn, endorsed Fiorina]

Others - 303,108 (1.18%) / 7 delegates (0.28%)

25,729,666 votes cast / 2,472 delegates total / 1,237 to win

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Edited by Dobs
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