Jump to content
The Political Lounge

VCCZAR's 2024 Forecast (April 19)


vcczar

Recommended Posts

No change to the map, Biden did improve his slight lead in the popular vote. Biden saw no significant gains in state polls, while Trump did increase his lead in MI and TX. 

Since starting this, Biden has increase his PV, but Trump has done a good job of doing well in states to stop a EV loss. 

Dems have seen a boost to Generic Dems, probably over abortion. Trump has seen his favorability fall pretty big this week, possibly because of the trial. 

Betting markets now see Biden more likely to win than Trump for the 1st time. 

8KXlQ.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'd say you're more or less aligned with Electoral Vote "at this moment", allowing for the fact that some of their states haven't updated yet and the fact that they do ties if they project 50/50.  Even someone as pedantic as me though couldn't really find fault if someone wanted to call them the same picture and not have an analysis, so I think this is a good weekly forecast.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...