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Dobs

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Everything posted by Dobs

  1. I submitted all my necessary events, right?
  2. Colorado GOP Convention - April 9th, 2016 Ted Cruz - 17 delegates (9 District + 8 State) Carly Fiorina - 14 delegates (12 District + 2 State) Ben Carson - 3 delegates (3 State) Vote Held by District Conventions and State Central Committee / 34 delegates allocated (County Map best reflects Congressional district borders, where Fiorina carried 1, 2, 6, and 7 and Cruz carried 3, 4, and 5)
  3. Wisconsin GOP Primary - April 5th, 2016 Ted Cruz - 439,060 votes (39.7%) 27 delegates Carly Fiorina - 430,212 votes (38.9%) 15 delegates Ben Carson - 236,672 votes (21.4%) 1,105,944 votes cast / 42 delegates allocated
  4. North Dakota GOP Convention - April 3rd, 2016 Ted Cruz - 17 delegates Carly Fiorina - 6 delegates Ben Carson - 2 delegates Vote Held by State Central Committee / 25 delegates allocated
  5. Fourteenth GOP Debate - March 29th, 2016 Milwaukee, Wisconsin Center: Carly Fiorina Center-Right: Ted Cruz Center-Left: Ben Carson --- The RNC announced that it would convert a CNN Town Hall initially scheduled ahead of the Wisconsin primary into a CNN-moderated debate in early March when it became clear that there would still be vigorous competition for the Republican nomination come April. This debate, the first featuring only three candidates, is viewed as a test of Fiorina without Rubio on the stage, where she is likely to be the concentrated focus of right-wing barrages from both Carson and Cruz, and also a test of Cruz's ability to control the right-wing lane as gadfly Carson persists to run to his right on cultural issues while being vaguely to his left on some economic concerns. Ultimately, Cruz was able to hold his lane together in the debate. Following an endorsement from Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker and the general coordination of conservative talk radio in Milwaukee, Cruz has been able to mobilize a task force of movement conservatives to oppose "California Carly," as the Cruz camp has dubbed her, for her more liberal social positions. Fiorina, for her part, has shot back harshly in the areas of foreign policy and business experience, pointing out her conservative economics and hawkish view of the American role in the world. She also emphasized her pro-life position, shying away from talking about LGBT issues and immigration where she has struck a much more unifying, moderate-friendly tone in the past. Cruz will likely benefit from this debate in the upcoming North Dakota Caucus and Wisconsin Primary, as Fiorina was kept on the backfoot on conservative pet issues.
  6. That's a very binary way to look at jurisprudence, and far from the only way that the Court has to consider law. Remember, a lot of what the Court does doesn't even involve the Constitution, it's just statutory interpretation. The doctrine of Constitutional Avoidance makes sure of that. Textualism is not the same thing as Originalism is not the same thing as Purposivism is not the same thing as Natural Law Theory is not the same thing as Living Instrumentalism is not the same thing as Formalism is not the same thing as Strict or Loose Constructionism... and I could go on and I haven't even begun to list the subcategories in these schools of thought. The bottom line is that interpreting law is a lot more complex than making it and votes cast on the Supreme Court can't be thought of as the same way we conceive a party-line vote in the Senate on tax policy, it's far more academic, collaborative, and esoteric. The court is not a partisan institution and really has not shown any signs of becoming one. The selection process is, of course, inherently partisan. But beyond that, the Court has done an excellent job insulating itself from that trend and producing quality legal product throughout American history, with an understanding that there have been particularly glaring miscarriages of justice and the Court is by no means perfect.
  7. I think Questions 5 and 6 probably miss the mark of the real substance of what we're talking about. The perceived "partisanship and ideology" of a given judge is really only incidental to the exercise of their office. I think brilliant legal minds like Clarence Thomas, Antonin Scalia, Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Neil Gorsuch, Louis Brandeis, Oliver Wendell Holmes, and William O. Douglas should be expected to have opinions about how the law should be interpreted. Jurisprudence is not the same thing as a political ideology, even if it is all too often, and maddeningly, conflated as such. Those Justices are not just good for the court, they are essential. They make the court better when there is an exchange of sharply contrasting legal theories to arrive at the best picture of what the law actually says. That is their task, to read law, not enact policy. So I shudder at the last part of my answer to Question 5, because AOC and MTG clones would be disastrous for the court. But that's because neither of them are brilliant legal minds or even just brilliant minds. For that matter, the two of those turkeys barely qualify as "minds." And of course, open partisanship is different from jurisprudential ideology, and so if a partisan affiliation got in the way of the administration of justice, I would support consequences, which informed my answer to Question 6. But I don't think we've gotten even close to that becoming a real concern with any justice in recent memory. The media likes to spin stories and they love to misrepresent the mission and makeup of the Court.
  8. State of the Race Post-Western Tuesday It was a relatively quiet week in the race for the Republican nomination compared to those before it. With a Fiorina win in Arizona and a Cruz victory in Utah, the race is quickly shaping up to be a 2-person contest for the rest of the way. Fiorina was able to build on wide support in the Phoenix and Tucson areas to eke out a victory over Marco Rubio, who had rested his campaign's viability on a surprise win in the Grand Canyon state. Fiorina won another 58 delegates in the winner-take-all contest and Rubio has finally decided to suspend his campaign. After a victory in Florida last week netted him another 99 delegates, he finds himself in an important position come the July convention in the likely scenario that no candidate reaches a majority. Rubio has not announced any endorsement, a move that sources close to the campaign pin as likely jockeying for a position to provide the majority to either Cruz or Fiorina, depending on who pulls ahead. Meanwhile, Ted Cruz won a decisive victory in the Utah caucus, but with Ben Carson winning a sizeable portion of working-class and non-college-educated Mormons, he has been deprived of majority support and thus has had to share the delegates from the Beehive State. Nevertheless, the distant third place for Fiorina has again proven the strength of support for the conservative half of the field in the Western states. The Carson campaign continues to stonewall the Cruz campaign, according to DNN sources, and will press on as long as necessary until certain concessions are made. Publically, Carson has thanked "the great and faithful people of Utah for their support as we march on to the East, including my home state of Maryland." Both Fiorina and Cruz have thanked Rubio for running his race and praised his campaign, a move that pundits all agree is indicative of two campaigns in desperate need of his 207 delegates. Meanwhile, the American Samoa GOP Convention has finished off the set of Insular contests for the GOP Nomination. The well-funded Fiorina campaign has surgically targeted the small island caucuses and conventions and, as a result, has secured 21 of 24 delegates from the territories not including Puerto Rico. She has also secured all 16 of DC's delegates in a concerted effort to win a majority at the small District Convention which was held. These contests, while small and despite flying under the radar, have amounted to a large boost for Fiorina and represent growing support for Fiorina among Hispanic, Asian, and Pacific Islander voters, particularly now with the exit of Rubio as she welcomes more diversity into her growing coalition. Nevertheless, the race remains incredibly close, with Fiorina clinging to a 2,999 popular vote lead of nearly 21.3 million Republican Primary voters. Though, she maintains a healthier, but still slim, 111 delegate lead. Candidate Standings - March 23rd, 2016 Carly Fiorina - 6,285,284 (29.52%) / 565 delegates (22.86%) Ted Cruz - 6,282,285 (29.51%) / 454 delegates (18.37%) Marco Rubio 3,296,112 (15.48%) / 207 delegates (8.37%) [withdrawn] Ben Carson - 3,543,247 (16.64%) / 194 delegates (7.85%) Chris Christie - 1,049,958 (5.13%) / 50 delegates (2.02%) [withdrawn, endorsed Fiorina] John Kasich - 528,693 (2.58%) / 26 delegates (1.05%) [withdrawn, endorsed Fiorina] Others - 303,108 (1.43%) / 7 delegates (0.28%)
  9. Utah GOP Caucus - March 22nd, 2016 Ted Cruz - 85,333 votes (44.6%) 20 delegates Ben Carson - 58,738 votes (30.7%) 14 delegates Carly Fiorina - 34,249 votes (17.9%) 6 delegates Marco Rubio - 13,010 votes (6.8%) 191,330 votes cast / 40 delegates allocated
  10. Arizona GOP Primary - March 22nd, 2016 Carly Fiorina - 192,204 votes (30.8%) 58 delegates Marco Rubio - 190,332 votes (30.5%) Ted Cruz - 173,483 votes (27.8%) Ben Carson - 68,020 votes (10.9%) 624,039 votes cast / 58 delegates allocated
  11. American Samoa GOP Convention - March 22nd, 2016 Carly Fiorina - 5 delegates Ted Cruz - 1 delegate Vote held by Territorial Central Committee / 6 delegates allocated
  12. Thirteenth GOP Debate - March 21st, 2016 Salt Lake City, Utah Center-Right: Carly Fiorina Center-Left: Ted Cruz 2nd from Right: Marco Rubio 2nd from Left: Ben Carson --- The Thirteenth Debate was not originally on the RNC debate calendar. However, following the results from the first three contests, another was added with an eye toward the Arizona and Utah contests. Accordingly, Immigration, Energy, and Cultural Issues were particularly poignant. Following a late-breaking endorsement from former nominee John McCain, Fiorina's foreign policy was also centered. The RNC announced earlier this month that the Utah debate will not be the last, with another scheduled next week for Milwaukee and a "final" event in early April in Manhattan. Fiorina, with her new frontrunner status, was expectedly attacked as too liberal on social issues by Carson and too weak on immigration by Cruz. With a large Mormon presence in the crowd, Carson picked up much support among Western Religious conservatives among who had been building momentum in the Idaho Caucus and Wyoming Convention. Though still thought to be a Cruz stronghold, a split among Mormons similar to the one Carson created among Evangelicals could be catastrophic. For her part, Fiorina once again emphasizes her hawkish foreign policy and business experience to appeal to conservative suburbanites while also outflanking the rest of the field on her innovative energy policy, which emphasizes private sector collaboration to improve green energy technology and modernize the American grid. Among the many methods used, she said, will be Arizona Solar. Rubio failed to have any breakthrough moments, lampooned for trotting out his Spanish skills yet again in what seems to now be a canned routine, to which Fiorina responded in Italian, quipping "It doesn't matter what language you say it in, it's just bad policy" garnering extended laughter from the room and other candidates. Fiorina was put on the defense for her comparatively liberal stances on immigration, including a pathway to citizenship, but she clamped down on her support for E-Verify and more spending on Border Defense and Drug Cartel Prosecution, using the moment to segue into a need for unity, much as Reagan did, criticizing the concept of mass deportation as unAmerican. This statement, bold to make in a GOP primary, may pay off or may sink her chances along the border.
  13. State of the Race Post-Super 3sday All those predicting a turning point in the race as the March 15th winner-take-all deadline was crossed and the race turned toward Northern states, bringing 8 million Republicans out to vote, were correct. For the first time since South Carolina, Carly Fiorina is now the delegate leader for the Republican nomination. Following strong performance in Illinois and Ohio and a shocking upset in Missouri, propelled by endorsements from Congresswomen Vicki Hartzler and Ann Wagner, Fiorina has taken the lead from Texas Senator Ted Cruz, who, for his part, carried North Carolina in a slimmer-than-expected margin. Cruz's woes were compounded by the fact that while Illinois, Ohio, and Missouri are winner-take-all/winner-take-most states, North Carolina is purely proportional, blunting any delegate boost he may have gained from the last in the south primary. Fiorina's campaign has been clearly aided by the consolidation of most female Republican voters around her, she has sold her story and her message to great effect, with most exit polls suggesting a gender gap of epic proportion, with Republican Women's groups across the country organizing for the new frontrunner en masse while male Republicans are far more divided, Ted Cruz having a smaller but clear edge among that demographic. Fiorina's strength was clearest among women in the suburbs of St. Louis, Kansas City, Chicago, Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati, Raleigh, and Charlotte where, in those cities, she is projected to have won up to 70% of the vote of female suburbanites. These margins have allowed her to run away with victories in suburban congressional districts and win convincing margins in states where the base of the GOP remains suburban, affluent, and college-educated. Though, it was not all good news for the Fiorina camp. After pouring millions into Florida and winning important victories in the Tampa Bay, Orlando, and Lee Island Coastal areas, she has fallen just short of toppling Senator Marco Rubio in his home state, extending the scrappy candidate's campaign, for now at least. Senator Rubio has received a delegate infusion of 99 delegates from the winner-take-all contest, more than doubling his current total. While a Fiorina win would have been a death knell for Rubio and gone a long way in cementing her as the eventual nominee, Rubio has ensured the race will remain protracted and drawn out for at least a few weeks longer. His campaign is now taking aim at Arizona as its next big hurdle, with events in the Copper State planned all next week. Dr. Ben Carson remains a persistent thorn in the side of Senator Ted Cruz, who sources claim is growing increasingly irritated with the retired neurosurgeon, though, for the first time, DNN (Dob News Network) can confirm that talks are underway between the two camps. Carson has slipped to 4th place in delegate totals but remains a distant third in popular vote totals due to the asymmetry of support for Rubio. For now, the Fiorina and Rubio campaigns are both declaring last night a victory while Ted Cruz continues to enjoy support from Movement Conservatives and Tea Party activists but must consolidate this base if he hopes to take back his lead. Candidate Standings - March 16th, 2016 Carly Fiorina - 6,058,826 (29.59%) / 496 delegates (20.06%) Ted Cruz - 6,023,468 (29.42%) / 433 delegates (17.52%) Marco Rubio - 3,092,770 (15.11%) / 207 delegates (8.37%) Ben Carson - 3,416,489 (16.69%) / 180 delegates (7.28%) Chris Christie - 1,049,958 (5.13%) / 50 delegates (2.02%) [withdrawn, endorsed Fiorina] John Kasich - 528,693 (2.58%) / 26 delegates (1.05%) [withdrawn, endorsed Fiorina] Others - 303,108 (1.49%) / 7 delegates (0.28%)
  14. Ohio GOP Primary - March 15th, 2016 Carly Fiorina - 779,672 votes (39.2%) 63 delegates Ted Cruz - 654,368 votes (32.9%) Ben Carson - 354,035 votes (17.8%) Marco Rubio - 200,885 votes (10.1%) 1,988,960 votes cast / 63 delegates allocated
  15. Northern Mariana Islands GOP Caucus - March 15th, 2016 Carly Fiorina - 165 votes (34.9%) 6 delegates Marco Rubio - 140 votes (29.8%) Ted Cruz - 96 votes (20.4%) Ben Carson - 70 votes (14.9%) 471 votes cast / 6 delegates allocated
  16. North Carolina GOP Primary - March 15th, 2016 Ted Cruz - 354,055 votes (30.8%) 21 delegates Carly Fiorina - 343,710 votes (29.9%) 21 delegates Ben Carson - 295,429 votes (25.7%) 18 delegates Marco Rubio - 156,336 votes (13.6%) 9 delegates 1,149,530 votes cast / 69 delegates allocated
  17. Missouri GOP Primary - March 15th, 2016 Carly Fiorina - 318,412 votes (33.9%) 34 delegates Ted Cruz - 317,473 votes (33.8%) 15 delegates Ben Carson - 222,607 votes (23.7%) Marco Rubio - 80,777 votes (8.6%) 939,269 votes cast / 49 delegates allocated
  18. Illinois GOP Primary - March 15th, 2016 Carly Fiorina - 624,841 votes (43.1%) 55 delegates Ted Cruz - 430,575 votes (29.7%) 5 delegates Ben Carson - 221,811 votes (15.3%) 3 delegates Marco Rubio - 172,520 votes (11.9%) 3 delegates 1,449,748 votes cast / 66 delegates allocated
  19. Florida GOP Primary - March 15th, 2016 Marco Rubio - 753,416 votes (31.9%) 99 delegates Carly Fiorina - 743,969 votes (31.5%) Ted Cruz - 526,683 votes (22.3%) Ben Carson - 337,738 votes (14.3%) 2,361,805 votes cast / 99 delegates allocated
  20. Breaking: The RNC has announced that, after his endorsement of Bernie Sanders, Donald Trump is in breach of GOP rules and has forfeited his right to stand as a candidate for the Republican nomination for President of the United States. All future votes for him in a primary contest will be voided. Additionally, the 3 delegates currently bound to him have been unbound via unanimous consent of the Republican National Committee.
  21. District of Columbia GOP Convention - March 12th, 2016 Carly Fiorina - 1,530 votes (53.9%) 16 delegates Marco Rubio - 826 votes (29.1%) Ben Carson - 273 votes (9.6%) Ted Cruz - 210 votes (7.4%) Donald Trump - 0 votes (0%) 2,839 votes cast / 16 delegates allocated
  22. Guam GOP Convention- March 12th, 2016 Carly Fiorina - 4 delegates Ted Cruz - 1 delegate Marco Rubio - 1 delegate Vote Held by Territorial Central Committee / 6 delegates allotted
  23. Twelfth GOP Debate - March 10th, 2016 Miami, Florida 1st Right: Ted Cruz 1st Left: Carly Fiorina 2nd Right: Ben Carson 2nd Left: Marco Rubio This debate, held on the same evening as the Virgin Islands Caucus, which had been called for the Fiorina slate just hours before the candidates took the stage, was held with an eye towards the contests dubbed as "Super 3sday," featuring more than 350 delegates being allocated across Florida, Ohio, Missouri, Illinois, North Carolina, and a handful of other small contests between then and now. Two of those contests, Ohio and Florida, are winner-take-all. This could function as a real turning point for any campaign which is able to take advantage of those provisions and wrack up large delegate wins there. The debate, held in Florida, shines a light on the do-or-die nature of this contest for the Rubio campaign, which has consistently hung its proverbial hat on the Sunshine State's lump sum of 99 delegates.' For his part, Senator Rubio came out swinging with several home state appeals. Indeed, it seems as though Rubio has completely forgotten the other states, as is reflected by his campaign's spending, he plays well to the hometown audience much as Senator Cruz had done in Houston a few weeks earlier. The friendly audience frames Rubio in a positive light as he goes on the attack, once again sparring with Ted Cruz in Spanish and even going on the offensive regarding Social Security. As with all debates, the venue has proven to not be the strength of the soft-spoken Dr. Carson who, at one point asks the rest of the squabbling field, "Can someone attack me?" which brings raucous applause from the audience growing tired of Cruz's ideological diatribes and Fiorina's signature pugnacious style that has served her well to this point in debates. Perhaps the primary electorate may be growing fatigued of the infighting, just wanting a winner. Either way, Rubio plays well to the audience at home while Fiorina continues to needle Cruz on his senate record while he fires back from the CEO's right. What effect, if any, these muddled performance will have remains to be seen.
  24. The New York Court of Appeals, having reached its decision, dismisses criminal charges for lack of a complaining witness. It seems no one was stupid enough to buy into the scheme, except for those that were too stupid to realize they were being scammed. This has rendered any possible criminal case that the state might refer to be without standing for lack of real damages. Any campaign finance violation has been remanded to Nassau County Civil Court, a body that is empowered to issue a fine of up to $25,000 on civil matters. In this matter, the Court of Appeals has recommended a verbal warning and fine not to exceed $5,000. It is so ordered. - Chief Judge Janet DiFiore, New York State Court of Appeals
  25. Virgin Islands GOP Caucus - March 10th, 2016 Carly Fiorina - 698 votes (42.8%) 6 delegates Marco Rubio - 495 votes (30.4%) Ted Cruz - 330 votes (20.3%) Ben Carson - 104 votes (6.4%) Donald Trump - 0 votes (0.0%) 1,627 votes cast / 6 delegates allocated
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