Dobs

Minnesota GOP Caucus - March 1st, 2016 Carly Fiorina - 29,247 votes (25.6%) 16 delegates Marco Rubio - 26,505 votes (23.2%) 8 delegates Ted Cruz - 22,735 votes (19.9%) 8 delegates John Kasich - 15,080 votes (13.2%) 3 delegates Chris Christie - 11,196 votes (9.8%) Ben Carson - 8,568 votes (7.5%) Donald Trump - 914 votes (0.8%) 114,245 votes cast / 35 delegates allotted

Massachusetts GOP Primary - March 1st, 2016 Chris Christie - 147,115 votes (23.3%) 10 delegates Carly Fiorina - 142,695 votes (22.6%) 9 delegates John Kasich - 140,170 votes (22.2%) 9 delegates Marco Rubio - 105,443 votes (16.7%) 7 delegates Ted Cruz - 54,300 votes (8.6%) 4 delegates Ben Carson - 27,781 votes (4.4%) Donald Trump - 13,891 votes (2.2%) 631,395 votes cast / 39 delegates allotted

Georgia GOP Primary - March 1st, 2016 Carly Fiorina - 371,942 votes (28.7%) 37 delegates Marco Rubio - 303,256 votes (23.4%) 19 delegates Ted Cruz - 265,673 votes (20.5%) 15 delegates Ben Carson - 228,090 votes (17.6%) 5 delegates Chris Christie - 59,614 votes (4.6%) John Kasich - 53,135 votes (4.1%) Donald Trump - 14,256 votes (1.1%) 1,295,964 votes cast / 76 delegates allotted

This is certainly not my RP, so take my suggestion for the mere advice that it is. But I've run a lot of these. And I can assure you that with the set-up you have pursued with this RP, a 2-year regular cycle will be much easier to manage and handle both for you and easier to keep track of for the participants.

Arkansas GOP Primary - March 1st, 2016 Ted Cruz - 156,561 votes (38.1%) 20 delegates Ben Carson - 103,602 votes (22.0%) 9 delegates Carly Fiorina - 71,911 votes (17.5%) 8 delegates Marco Rubio - 53,685 votes (11.4%) Donald Trump - 21,662 votes (4.6%) Chris Christie - 15,540 votes (3.3%) John Kasich - 14,599 votes (3.1%) 410,920 votes / 37 delegates allotted

Alaska GOP Caucus - March 1st, 2016 Carly Fiorina - 6,308 votes (27.4%) 10 delegates Ted Cruz - 5,891 votes (25.6%) 9 delegates Ben Carson - 4,280 votes (18.6%) 6 delegates Marco Rubio - 2,830 votes (12.3%) Chris Christie - 2,094 votes (9.1%) John Kasich - 1,311 votes (5.7%) Donald Trump - 276 votes (1.2%) 23,010 votes cast / 25 delegates allotted

Alabama GOP Primary - March 1st, 2016 Ted Cruz - 309,834 votes (36.0%) 45 delegates Ben Carson - 158,360 votes (18.4%) 1 delegate Carly Fiorina - 154,919 votes (18.0%) 1 delegate Marco Rubio - 115,327 votes (13.4%) Chris Christie - 61,106 votes (7.1%) John Kasich - 33,565 votes (3.9%) Donald Trump - 27,541 votes (3.2%) 860,652 votes cast / 47 delegates allotted

The State of the Race Pre-Super Tuesday Carly Fiorina: 55 delegates / 303,981 (23.65%) Ted Cruz: 21 delegates / 273,568 votes (21.28%) Marco Rubio: 16 delegates / 189,767 votes (14.76%) Ben Carson: 9 delegates / 156,719 votes (12.19%) Chris Christie: 7 delegates / 133,307 votes (10.37%) John Kasich: 6 delegates / 100,396 votes (7.81%) Donald Trump: 2 delegates / 79,655 votes (6.20%) Others: 4 delegates National Polling Average - February 28th, 2016 Carly Fiorina: 24% (+4) Ted Cruz: 22% (+1) Marco Rubio: 16% (+3) Ben Carson: 14% (+2) Chris Christie: 12% (-) John Kasich: 9%(-) Donald Trump: 2% (-2)

BREAKING: Nevada Governor Brian Sandoval endorses Florida Senator Marco Rubio in the run-up to the state's caucus, sending the contest into chaos. Nevada GOP Caucus - February 23rd, 2016 Marco Rubio - 20,834 votes (27.6%) 8 delegates Carly Fiorina - 19,852 votes (26.3%) 7 delegates Ted Cruz - 14,493 votes (19.2%) 5 delegates Chris Christie - 5,886 votes (7.8%) 2 delegates Ben Carson - 5,736 votes (7.6%) 2 delegates John Kasich - 5,435 votes (7.2%) 2 delegates Donald Trump - 3,246 votes (4.3%) 1 delegate 75,482 votes cast / 27 delegates allotted --- State of the Race Post-Nevada The endorsement from Governor Sandoval has indeed proved pivotal to the Rubio campaign, allowing them to surge ahead in Clark County and win the contest in a narrow margin over expected winner Carly Fiorina. The Fiorina campaign had invested heavily in the state following a strong showing in New Hampshire, expecting that the First in the West contest would be fertile ground for the native Californian. Indeed, that coalition seems to have held up in Reno and its surrounding suburbs on the California border but was not enough to overcome Rubio's advantage in the Las Vegas area. In a somewhat distant third, Ted Cruz dominated the rural Cow Counties of Central Nevada but was locked out of the more populous areas, still, this is not a total defeat as he finished well ahead of the remaining candidates, with his campaign stating they are looking forward to a good showing in the Southern-dominated Super Tuesday next week. The result of the Nevada caucus raises questions about the longevity of the Christie, Kasich, and Carson campaigns. But with each having specific targets on Super Tuesday, they have all vowed to remain in the race. One thing is for certain, the 2016 Republican contest will see a record number of viable candidates competing into March as pundits now consider the very real possibility that no single candidate will consolidate the requisite 1,237 votes needed to win the Republican nomination on the first ballot. In an increasingly irrelevant last place, Businessman Donald Trump had hoped his Nevada casino and hotel ties would win support in downtown Vegas. Instead, the New Yorker has seen his vote share shrink for the fourth contest in a row, nearly locked out of delegates altogether were it not for the pure proportional basis on which the caucus awards them. Trump will likely continue to be a political gadfly of the race, with enough funds to continue self-funding to the convention, but it seems his popular support has all but vanished.

South Carolina GOP Primary - February 20th, 2016 Carly Fiorina - 180,771 votes (24.4%) 35 delegates Ted Cruz - 174,107 votes (23.5%) 6 delegates Ben Carson - 113,354 votes (15.3%) 3 delegates Marco Rubio - 109,651 votes (14.8%) 3 delegates Chris Christie - 67,423 votes (9.6%) John Kasich - 50,380 votes (6.8%) Donald Trump - 41,485 votes (5.6%) 740,881 votes cast / 47 delegates allotted --- State of the Race Post-South Carolina Fiorina's squeaker of a victory in South Carolina has put the Cruz campaign on the backfoot. Still confident in the rest of the Bible Belt, the growing threat of a Carson candidacy is making itself clear to Cruz. Others simply chalk up the upset win to a late endorsement from a popular Governor. Whatever the case, Fiorina has dominated with lowcountry voters and suburbanites around the Charleston and Columbia areas, with Rubio snagging most support in urban Charleston. Carson and Cruz split the conservative upcountry vote with Cruz dominating in the popular centers of Spartanburg, Greenville, and Rock Hill as well as their conservative suburbs while Dr. Carson has won in rural, evangelical-dominated counties across the Upcountry and Black Belt. Meanwhile, John Kasich and Chris Christie failed to win in specific counties, but both ate into Rubio and Fiorina's margin in the suburbs of the state, with neither making a particularly terrible or great performance relative to expectations. Donald Trump, on the other hand, continues to fall far short of his expectations and is now treated as a low-tier candidate who would not be invited to debates even if he weren't a stark-raving lunatic. His major support has all but evaporated after this embarrassing last-place finish. Marco Rubio is on the ropes, with the last hope for the candidate being a strong performance in Nevada. Otherwise, it is questionable if he is able to make it to his home state of Florida. Meanwhile, Kasich and Christie each seem intent on competing in the Northeast and Midwest, while Carson and Cruz appear headed for a collision course in the South. Can Fiorina compete everywhere without spreading her campaign too thin? No matter the result, it seems all candidates are determined to compete through at least Super Tuesday.

National Polling Post-New Hampshire Ted Cruz: 21% Carly Fiorina: 20% Marco Rubio: 13% Chris Christie: 12% Ben Carson: 12% John Kasich: 9% Donald Trump: 4% South Carolina GOP Debate - February 13th, 2016 Greenville, South Carolina Center-Right: Ted Cruz Center-Left: Carly Fiorina 2nd from Right: Ben Carson 2nd from Left: Chris Christie 3rd from Right: Marco Rubio 3rd from Left: John Kasich --- Donald Trump was not invited as per RNC decision. His competing television hour did expectedly poorly. The field has been shaved to the final 6 candidates. Ted Cruz, still viewed as the national frontrunner, is expected to win in South Carolina. However, Carly Fiorina's strong performance in New Hampshire and an unexpected endorsement from Jeb Bush, who had been anticipated to support Rubio or Christie upon his exit, has vaulted her into a clear and strong second place. Accordingly, the two candidates spent most of the evening attacking each other, Cruz questioning Fiorina's conservative credentials while Fiorina leaned into her business acumen, hawkish foreign policy, and tough-on-crime position to appeal to the audience of South Carolinians. Meanwhile, Ben Carson has been seemingly revived with a bevy of key faith-related endorsements, notably former candidates Huckabee and Santorum, cutting into Cruz's evangelical base. Christie, Rubio, and Kasich continue to battle for the establishment lane, splitting an already thin lane in the First in the South primary. The debate itself is largely uneventful if only to establish the new pecking order in the race. It does little to change the state of the race, other than perhaps help Ted Cruz ever so slightly as he emerges as the clear "man to beat." However, in the timeslot immediately following the debate, the Fiorina campaign hosts an event across the street. Unknown to the press at the time, her campaign has a surprise of its own. The guest is Governor Nikki Haley, who has come to give her coveted endorsement to the would-be first female President of the United States. The announcement draws eyeballs from across the state and the country, giving Fiorina important momentum to match Cruz's strong debate performance. The Palmetto State is anyone's game.

The chambers of Chief Judge Janet DiFiore The Judge ruffles through her Prada bag, hand settling on a bottle of Chanel No. 5. She spritzes two large puffs into her perfectly inelastic golden hair, something about a quality fragrance has always held Janet's hair better than any hairspray ever could. On the television across from her desk is a constant barrage of attacks against Governor Cuomo, the man who had made her Chief. She rolls her eyes at Williams and sighs as Suozzi comes on. She just chuckles at the Republicans, members of her former party, before that became bad business in the practice of New York law. She might even feel a hint of genuine empathy for Pataki, if she's capable, trying to take back a party that once was. When she could win as a Republican DA in Westchester County and when her colleagues like Jeanine hadn't gone cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs. Those were the days, but she had left them behind. A loyal Cuomo Democrat now, business has continued unabated now as it had for years, regardless of her partisan affiliation. She looks over to the door, a silhouette. She had been expecting someone. "Come in." Through the door comes a buttoned-up man, glasses too small for his face. The Chief Judge offers him a seat, and a drink. He accepts the former. The man has beaded sweat on his forehead and looks like he hasn't slept in months. But his suit is perfectly tailored, with a pocket square to cut granite. He begins, "Nice of you to see me Judge, Dave Sirota." "Yes, Ed Mangini tells me you grew up together in Brooklyn." "Yeah, Colonial, poor Eddie, last kid picked for stickball. Guess he ended up alright, Clerk of the Chief Judge of New York." DiFiore smiles, even laughs, "So what can I do for you Mr. Sirota." "Listen, my 13-year-old girl has been hanging out with this lowlife, 15, real piece of crap. Excuse my French." "I've heard worse in my courtroom," Janet assures. "Couple months ago he boosts my deVille, takes my girl for a spin, totals the car. Put my baby girl in the hospital for 2 months, son of a bitch walks away without a scratch. My angel, she could have been killed. Cops come, bust him for joyriding and endangering a minor, get him tried and convicted as an adult. But now they're saying there's some sort of issue, something about a cop who didn't read him his rights or questioned him without a parent, I don't know. But, uh, they're saying the whole case could be thrown out on appeal. I just think someone like this shouldn't be able to get away with it." "And what is it you want me to do," Janet inquires. Sirota leans in closer to the desk, he can smell the perfume now coming off the statuesque head of the distinguished jurist, "Well, Eddie says you know how to deal with kids like him, you're not afraid, you know, give'm what's comin' to 'em. Even if the cops missed a step or two." "I just serve the public good, Mr. Sirota," the Chief Judge replies neutrally. "Well, trust me, you would be doin' a huge public service if you got this hump off the street for good. Now his name is Pauly Catalano and Eddie says that he's in your schedule for tomorrow for a hearing about what to do with the conviction." "Hmm," the Judge intones, picking up a fuschia folder from her desk. Putting on her classes she inspects the contents. "So he is, first up on the docket. I'll read the case carefully," the Judge offers with a sharp smile. Mr. Sirota extends his hand, "Thank you very much, Judge, I appreciate it." "You can always show your appreciation with a donation to my legal foundation," Janet replies, warmly. Mr. Sirota returns the smile and gets up to leave, but before he turns to the door, reaches into his jacket pocket. He makes a noise of surprise, feigning shock to find a thick manila packet wrapped in twine. "Huh," he says to the room, as if wondering who placed the packet in his suit, before casually dropping the packet on the Judge's desk with a thud. "Have a nice day," he concludes, before leaving DiFiore's chambers. The judge purses her lips, turning her eyes down to the desk. She counts the contents of the packet. --- The next morning, in the Hearing of the People of New York v. Paul Catano "In this case, I have been presented with claim after claim from the defense on the question of vacating this conviction on grounds of Miranda, Mapp, and countless other precedents. It seems as though Mr. Catano's counsel has decided to raid the fridge for Jell-o and see what sticks. I'm sorry to inform you, Mr. Catano, but my kitchen walls are clean. In the case of The People vs. Paul Catano, it is the judgment of the New York State Court of Appeals that the vacation of the sentence by the New York Supreme Court should be reversed in finding no violation of the defendant's rights. Further, the defendant will be remanded without bail to Riker's Island in the custody of the New York City Department of Corrections. New York County Court Judge Hilda Marsden shall be instructed to issue a final sentence to Mr. Catano in a manner not inconsistent with this order. Mr. Catano, for endangering the welfare of a child, for grand theft larceny, and for aggravated assault, I am recommending you for transfer to Sing Sing Correctional Facility's Maximum Security Division for a period not to exceed thirty years." The defense erupts in protest, "The original sentence was only fifteen your honor!" DiFiore raises her hand, "Then you should not have appealed on such flimsy grounds Mr. Martinez, you will find we are much less lenient here in Albany. Another outburst in like that in my courtroom and you will see just how rigid with the rule of law I can be. Court is adjourned." The Chief Judge brings the gavel down, the sound bouncing off the wooden surfaces of the courtroom and ringing in Catano's ear like a metal drum. Chances are he will be 45 years old when he is once again a free man. Mr. Sirota, on the other hand, could not be more elated. The Chief Judge's face does not change from its stern and neutral tone until she has left the courtroom, when finally a smile graces her lips. Janet walks peppily back to her chambers, greeting Ed Mangini at his desk. "More like that Ed, more like that," she encourages him with a slap on the back, before disappearing back into her chambers to review her next case. Oh, and mute those god-forsaken candidates for Governor on the TV.

New Hampshire GOP Primary - February 9th, 2016 Carly Fiorina - 71,765 votes (25.1%) 9 delegates Chris Christie - 48,034 votes (16.8%) 3 delegates Ted Cruz - 39,170 votes (13.7%) 3 delegates John Kasich - 38,599 votes (13.5%) 3 delegates Marco Rubio - 35,168 votes (12.3%) 2 delegates Jeb Bush - 22,872 votes (8.0%) Donald Trump - 17,727 votes (6.2%) Ben Carson - 12,580 votes (4.4%) 285,916 votes cast / 20 delegates allotted --- State of the Race Post-New Hampshire Fiorina's clear win in New Hampshire has established her as the obvious challenger to Cruz's position as national frontrunner. Her coalition of college-educated and affluent business-minded voters as well as those searching for a credible outsider has proven effective in New England. She was able to sweep the densely populated core of the state which stretches from the Massachusetts border to the Main border. Meanwhile, Chris Christie has taken a strong second place, breathing into his campaign new life with a strong performance among the non-college-educated moderates who populate the Vermont border, while Ted Cruz's 3rd place performance may be a far cry from the decisive win in Iowa from last week, but is certainly enough for a good night for the Texas Senator and enough to win Coos County in the far north. Marco Rubio and John Kasich had less exciting nights, but both vowing to continue on, as Rubio looks forward to friendlier territory in South Carolina and Nevada, while Kasich maintains that his performance, and netting more delegates, is a win for the campaign and he will continue to march on. Jeb Bush, however, has finally met his end. With a disappointing 8%, the former Florida Governor drops out of the race and announces his support of California businesswoman Carly Fiorina, the first major endorsement for the Granite State winner. Fellow outsiders Donald Trump and Ben Carson also had disappointing nights, with Trump barely even referencing the results, just saying he will "never drop out" because he "will be the Republican nominee" and with Dr. Carson not even holding a New Hampshire event. Instead, the Carson campaign had already flown to South Carolina, where, in a shock to the media, Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum announced they will be endorsing Carson in a prayer breakfast in Greenville, and touring the state's church groups with him in the week leading up to the primary. The race in South Carolina will likely be a nailbiter with the frontrunner Cruz now having to fight back an insurgent Fiorina and a Carson campaign who is betting on a Phoenix-like comeback to save them in the Bible Belt. Meanwhile, Kasich, Christie, and Rubio will all struggle for the establishment lane, even with a little breathing room with Bush out of the race.

New Hampshire GOP Debate - February 6th, 2016 Goffstown, New Hampshire Center: Ted Cruz Center-Right: Carly Fiorina Center-Left: Ben Carson 2nd from Right: Marco Rubio 2nd from Left: Chris Christie 3rd from Right: John Kasich 3rd from Left: Jeb Bush --- Following Donald Trump's tirade of attacks against the IAGOP, the NHGOP decided to disinvite Donald Trump from the New Hampshire debate. The RNC sanctioned the decision and announced that the mogul would no longer be welcome on any Republican debate stage due to his clear lack of loyalty to the Republican Party and low premium on the truth. Trump, incensed by his humiliation, once again announced a competing television program, even after the first suffered from terribly low ratings by the time it finished. Trump further endorsed Bernie Sanders in the New Hampshire Democratic Primary, stating, "Bernie and I are the only two candidates in this to win it for the American people, I will be the Republican nominee unless it is stolen from me, and Bernie will be the Democrat unless Hillary and the DNC steal it from him too!" Once again, Trump's poll numbers suffered because of these outbursts. The debate itself was eventful even in Trump's absence. Ben Carson took aim at Iowa winner and frontrunner Ted Cruz, attacking him from the right on election integrity and religious issues, possibly trying to peel away Trump voters or setting up something else. Fiorina and Cruz continued their rivalry, sparring throughout the night while both Kasich and Christie had notable moments in which they issued takedowns of Cruz and Rubio respectively, arguing that the two don't have what it takes to be President after having only served as legislators, highlighting their experiences as Governors of Ohio and New Jersey. Bush did not seem to make the waves he needed to in this debate to move the needle significantly. Overall, Cruz and Rubio seemed to be on the defensive throughout most of the night while Christie and Kasich made gains.

2016 Iowa GOP Caucus - February 1st, 2016 Ted Cruz - 45,798 votes (24.5%) 7 delegates Carly Fiorina - 31,593 votes (16.9%) 4 delegates Ben Carson - 25,049 votes (13.4%) 4 delegates Marco Rubio - 24,114 votes (12.9%) 3 delegates Donald Trump - 17,197 votes (9.2%) 2 delegates Chris Christie - 11,964 votes (6.4%) 2 delegates Mike Huckabee - 8,225 votes (4.4%) 1 delegate Jeb Bush - 7,290 votes (3.9%) 1 delegate John Kasich - 5,982 votes (3.2%) 1 delegate Rand Paul - 5,795 votes (3.1%) 1 delegate Rick Santorum - 3,925 votes (2.1%) 1 delegate 186,932 votes cast / 27 delegates allotted --- State of the Race Post-Iowa As expected, Ted Cruz emerged as a clear winner in the Iowa caucus. Capitalizing on an endorsement from the Iowa Family Leader and important conservative movement leaders, Cruz won support in rural and small-suburban areas in the East and South of the state, while also racking it up among farmers. Ben Carson also posted well on the right flank, dominating among those caucuses which were closest to local churches and winning in counties dominated by small-town populations. Meanwhile, Carly Fiorina surged to a strong second place, capitalizing on Trump's weaknesses and the faltering of other more moderate candidates to win important victories in the Quad Cities region, Iowa City, and Des Moines. Her strength was most pronounced in urban areas and large suburbs, the latter of which has proven to be the core of her base. Meanwhile, Marco Rubio established himself as a strong fourth, toppling Trump and winning surprise victories in Linn and Story Counties, competing with Fiorina in the suburbs. Meanwhile, Donald Trump's decision to skip the debate, which was met with harsh and intense criticism from Iowa Republicans who viewed him as a sore loser and dismissive of rural concerns, particularly after a clip of him diminishing Iowa and referencing his own "New York values" went viral, clearly proved to be a fatal blunder, with the business magnate severely underperforming polls. His reputation as a sore loser seems to have gone from bad to worse as the candidate went nuclear on Twitter, irate over a disappointing fifth-place finish, claiming massive and widespread fraud on the part of the Iowa Republican Party. The RNC has harshly disavowed these claims and criticized Trump, saying that "tonight is about the people of Iowa, Mr. Trump's destructive and false claims will be dealt with later," signaling possible sanctions on the Trump campaign yet to be announced. Further down the field, Chris Christie emerged in an unsurprising sixth place, leading those candidates not viewed in the core of contention for Iowa, which is likely to save him from terrible effects on his bid for New Hampshire. Meanwhile, Jeb Bush's lackluster performance has left him vowing to compete until New Hampshire, but otherwise in peril. John Kasich says he will continue until at least his home state of Ohio's voice has been heard. Other candidates on whom there has been pressure to withdraw have not been so hardy, with former Iowa winners Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum both suspending their campaigns. Likewise, a disappointing 3% for Rand Paul has been enough to end the campaign of the Kentucky senator. Unexpectedly, Huckabee and Santorum have refused to endorse anyone, though they are scheduled in South Carolina next week, as rumors buzz around who the two bible-thumpers will be supporting, with the leading candidate being an obvious Ted Cruz. Rand Paul, has announced his attention to support the Texas Senator, and will make a formal endorsement in New Hampshire this week. Meanwhile, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders has unexpectedly won the Iowa Caucus by 4 points over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, upsetting the clear frontrunner and shaking up the race. More on this "other primary" race as it develops.

Iowa GOP Debate - January 28th, 2016 Des Moines, Iowa Center: Ted Cruz Center-Right: Ben Carson Center-Left: Carly Fiorina 2nd from Right: Marco Rubio 2nd from Left: Chris Christie 3rd from Right: Rand Paul 3rd from Left: John Kasich 4th from Right: Jeb Bush 4th from Left: Mike Huckabee --- Rick Santorum was not invited. Donald Trump refused the invitation. With Trump ducking the debate, much of the beginning of the debate consisted of the remaining candidates using him as a punching bag. The best sucker punch was landed by Carly Fiorina, quipping that Megyn Kelly was "right on with her assessment, I'm glad we don't have to see that "wimpy" face right now, I just feel bad for everyone else on Channel 7 that does. Then again, I doubt anyone's watching his pity party." which drew raucous applause from the crowd. Carson continued on the decline, but cleaved strong to a religious appeal going into the caucus. Meanwhile, Ted Cruz was able to deftly ward off most attacks on him, which were launched by Christie, Kasich, and even Bush who all attempted to take a swipe at the caucus and national frontrunner. Christie's strong personality made him a clear favorite among the "three establishmenteers" who languished in Iowa polling, as the media dubbed them. Still, it is unclear if his performance will result in any breakthrough performance. Needless to say, the decision not to debate from Trump has hurt him dearly, while Ted Cruz appears locked in for an easy win in Iowa, with a crowded race for 2nd. Still, Cruz's numbers are weak in New Hampshire and will need a commanding victory to put him back within striking distance in the Granite State.

National Polling Average - January 1st, 2016 Ted Cruz - 20% (+3) Carly Fiorina - 18% (+2) Donald Trump - 13% (-) Marco Rubio - 11% (-1) Chris Christie - 9% (+2) Ben Carson - 8% (-6) John Kasich - 7% (-) Jeb Bush - 5% (-2) Rand Paul - 3% (+2) Others - 1% (-2) --- Iowa Polling Average - January 1st, 2016 Cruz - 24% Carson - 16% Trump - 15% Fiorina - 13% Rubio - 10% Christie - 5% Paul - 5% Kasich - 4% Huckabee - 4% Bush - 3% Santorum - 2% --- New Hampshire Polling Average - January 1st, 2016 Fiorina - 19% Rubio - 14% Christie - 14% Cruz - 13% Kasich - 12% Bush - 9% Trump - 6% Carson - 5% Paul - 4% Others - 1% --- The State of the Race Ted Cruz has established himself as the clear frontrunner in Iowa, with Ben Carson a distant second, having consolidated many religious conservatives behind him, while Cruz dominates among movement Tea Partiers. Carly Fiorina has emerged as a slight favorite in New Hampshire and in the mix in Iowa with a mix of suburban conservatives, business conservatives, and those in search of an outsider. Meanwhile, Marco Rubio battles as the most conservative in the so-called "establishment" lane with Chris Christie and John Kasich, each who offers a moderate conservatism, but in either a pugnacious, or conciliatory style, respectively. Meanwhile, Jeb Bush continues to falter while the "fringe" candidates fade further in their numbers. The Iowa Caucus will be the first opportunity for a sole candidate to separate themselves as a clear favorite, and right now Senator Cruz appears most poised to make that showing. However, before there will be Iowa caucuses, there must be an Iowa Debate. Donald Trump has already, in what many are calling a desperate bid to re-center attention around his stagnant campaign, announced that he will refuse to participate. He has been roundly criticized as "running scared" of moderator Megyn Kelly who openly referred to him as "wimpy" in light of the decision. This debate, and the campaigns' activities in the month of January, will be the last moment to make their case tio Iowans, who will set the tone for the rest of the primary schedule.

Fifth GOP Debate - December 15th, 2015 Las Vegas, Nevada Center: Ted Cruz Center-Right: Carly Fiorina Center-Left: Marco Rubio 2nd from Right: Donald Trump 2nd from Left: Ben Carson 3rd from Right: Jeb Bush 3rd from Left: Chris Christie 4th from Right: John Kasich 4th from Left: Rand Paul --- Santorum and Huckabee were not invited due to falling short of the criteria. Paul was a late addition to round out the stage. This debate featured what many critics identified as "second wind" for Trump, stopping the bleeding in his poll numbers and holding steady at a core 15% of primary voters who, at this point, say they will not vote for anyone else. Meanwhile, newly minted frontrunner Ted Cruz was able to walk away from the debate with his momentum in tact, particularly as he solidified his base of social conservatives when asked about abortion and marriage equality as it related to Hispanic voters in Nevada, while Rubio struggled to pin Cruz in an awkward moment in which he accused the frontrunner of faking his Spanish proficiency and the Texas Senator responded in full fluency. Fiorina once again flexed her business acumen and walked away from the debate in the middle of the pack, while Ben Carson continues to fade into the background except among the most religious of conservatives. The inclusion of Paul proved disastrous for Bush as the former mercilessly attacked the latter on perceived ties to the "establishment," leaving Bush largely without recourse for response. While this debate is not expected to shake up the state of the race as much as November's did, it highlights the lack of a true frontrunner as time runs out heading into 2016 and Iowa.

National Polling - December 1st, 2015 Ted Cruz - 17% (+10) Carly Fiorina - 16% (+6) Ben Carson - 14% (-11) Donald Trump - 13% (-11) Marco Rubio - 12% (+3) Jeb Bush - 7% (+1) Chris Christie - 7% (+3) John Kasich - 6% (+4) Mike Huckabee - 1% (-2) Rand Paul - 1% (-2) Rick Santorum - 1% (-1) Bobby Jindal - 1% (-) --- The State of the Race Far from solidifying, the race in December is far more in doubt than it was in November. Carson and Trump have collapsed in support in what the mainstream media are dubbing the great "realization" that the two men could mean devastation for the top of the ticket in November, particularly against a seasoned foreign policy vet like Hillary Clinton. Benefiting most from these developments include Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, and Marco Rubio. Cruz has capitalized on support from Christian Conservatives who desire a more experienced pick than Carson, while Rubio and Fiorina both bring in foreign policy hawks. Fiorina's all-star performance at the last debate has proven her, perhaps, the safest of the "outsider" candidates, but it is unclear whether or not the taste for an outsider has soured among the party. Meanwhile, Christie and Kasich have surged as undercard alternates while Huckabee, Paul, and Santorum seem to have set their campaigns to life support. Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal is expected to end his campaign before the next debate in Mid-December, joining George Pataki and Lindsey Graham, both of whom failed to make even the November undercard.

Fourth GOP Debate - November 10th, 2015 Center-Right: Carson Center-Left: Trump 1st from Right: Fiorina 1st from Left: Rubio 2nd from Right: Cruz 2nd from Left: Bush 3rd from Right: Christie 3rd from Left: Huckabee --- An undercard debate was held also featuring Paul, Kasich, Santorum, and Jindal. --- The debate was dominated by the November 2015 Paris terror attacks, which occurred in the days leading up to the debate. Fiorina, Rubio, Cruz, and Bush, capitalized on the attacks by highlighting Carson's perceived inability to discuss the issue intelligently and Trump's perceived isolationism. Fiorina benefited from being perceived as the only of the three leading "outsider" candidates with any real foreign policy experience, while Rubio and Bush benefited from their hawkish positions. Cruz, less outspokenly hawkish on foreign policy, but incredibly conservative on immigration, benefited from strong rhetoric on immigration, stealing Trump's thunder in many instances. Christie, likewise, was able to bulldoze Trump during several exchanges that seemed straight out of a New York vs. New Jersey housewives reality TV crossover. Meanwhile, in the undercard debate, Kasich dominated when, on the same issue, Rand Paul was soon as grossly out of touch on the issue of terrorism and foreign policy, and was booed down by the audience.

Vice President Biden slams the slate of Trump nominees roundly, calling the administration "a who's who of extremists from across the political spectrum" and a "cast of sorry characters." Moderate Democrat Chair Mark Warner announces that his caucus cannot support someone as extreme as Khanna.

Majority Whip John Thune requests that Leader McConnell not dignify someone as extreme and radical as Ro Khanna with the courtesy of a vote. Mainstream Caucus Chair Tim Scott (R-SC) calls the nominee "dangerous" in a statement signed by several Republican senators while RNC Chair Susanna Martinez, when asked by reporters, "questions how such a nominee could possibly align with Republican values and principles."

Mainstream Republicans will vote aye on all Trump nominees except Tulsi Gabbard, who we will oppose. Moderate Democrats will support Huntsman and Ayotte and oppose all other nominees.

Apologies for not getting this to you sooner, but Governor Walker will respectfully decline the nomination. His focus is on his home state of Wisconsin and serving as Governor there. He will announce his intention to seek another term in 2018.

Could i request a faction assessment of each of these individuals? @Rodja