vcczar Posted November 7, 2022 Author Share Posted November 7, 2022 I'm going to make my final prediction around 5pm tomorrow (election day) so I can gather any last polls. I'll say this, that unless a poll shows a vast improvement in GA, AZ, and NV, tomorrow or today that those will go GOP. It isn't helped that Trafalgar released polls that are heavy GOP (their polls usually are). One thing in Dems favor is that the generic ballot is slowly moving back their way, but it is still +1.1 GOP. If it moves further for Dems tomorrow, that might at least save AZ in the algorithm, assuming a bad poll for Kelly doesn't appear. As of right now, it looks like 52 seats for the GOP, which is going to suck. I'll also try to make a guess for the House, although I don't have an algorithm for that. I'll also have my own predictions for Sen and Gov that is independent of my algorithm. This is mainly because I think my algorithm is flawed for state-level elections as it is built more for nationalized elections, such as presidential elections. However, if my algorithm is 100% accurate, then I may be more confident next time for non-presidential elections. Another note is I have very little confidence in the KS Gov race prediction because polling is so rare. This is the issue I had with ME-2 in 2020, which was the only miss my algorithm had. I trust my algorithm in that it beat every single pundit that posted a prediction/projection map. I'm curious if I'll do the same this time, but limited polling and more biased polling could create more issues than I had in 2020. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vcczar Posted November 7, 2022 Author Share Posted November 7, 2022 It could change tomorrow, but now I'm showing PA and NH Sen and OR Gov going GOP. It's so narrow that it could just flip. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vcczar Posted November 7, 2022 Author Share Posted November 7, 2022 The algorithm seems to be too GOP-friendly even for this election. One of my columns is to adjust for liberal biases in the polls, but I don't know if polls have adjusted for liberal biases in 2016 and 2020. Biden won GA and AZ in my algorithm in 2020 despite me handicapping Biden. In fact there's a lot of columns I have that I'm unsure if they matter as much or matter more in a Midterm election. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DakotaHale Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 1 hour ago, vcczar said: The algorithm seems to be too GOP-friendly even for this election. One of my columns is to adjust for liberal biases in the polls, but I don't know if polls have adjusted for liberal biases in 2016 and 2020. Biden won GA and AZ in my algorithm in 2020 despite me handicapping Biden. In fact there's a lot of columns I have that I'm unsure if they matter as much or matter more in a Midterm election. I think there’s a reasonable chance that there’s a Democratic bias this year. It’s been shown that pollsters are selectively releasing polls this year (maybe to adjust for the bias and try to be more accurate), and underreleasing polls this year. Plus the “likely voter” category is +1 Dem this year when it’s usually a Republican demographic. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrPotatoTed Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 On 10/4/2022 at 6:22 PM, Dobs said: I'm going to be a contrarian and suggest that blue Ohio and red Pennsylvania will exist contemporaneously. On 10/8/2022 at 12:03 AM, MrPotatoTed said: Ohioan-turned-Pennsylvanian here. Not a chance. Ohio grows redder every day, while Pennsylvania has a strong urban base. A traditional Republican might have won in PA, but Dr. Oz is SUCH a stunningly bad candidate while Fetterman has that blue collar appeal. I'd bet my house that PA goes Fetterman while Ryan loses in Ohio. On 10/9/2022 at 10:19 PM, Dobs said: To think that Oz is a significantly worse candidate than Fetterman is to miss something, I think. And to not think that Ryan isn't a stunningly and significantly better candidate than Vance to the degree it could swing the race is, again, to miss something, I think. You owe me a house, sir. ;c) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrPotatoTed Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 On 10/29/2022 at 11:24 PM, MrPotatoTed said: I can't post photos anymore (I assume I went over my limit), so I'll just have to give totals. My picks: Senate remains 50-50. House moves from the current 222-213 in favor of blue, over to 221-214 in favor of Red. This is still looking pretty good! ;c) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ebrk85 Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 13 hours ago, MrPotatoTed said: This is still looking pretty good! ;c) Quite literally that might be 100% spot on. Nice job! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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