Henry Kissinger's =Diplomacy=

[vcczar]

I finished reading Henry Kissinger's Diplomacy the other day, which was written in the middle of Bill Clinton's presidency. There are some flaws in the presentation. Kissinger runs out of steam once he gets past the Nixon presidency. He pretty much skips to Reagan and rushes to conclude the book. He focuses almost exclusively on the USSR, China, and Vietnam, barely covering other Cold War theatres. He does cover WWI, WWII and the Korean War rather well toward the beginning. He's clearly most interested in Truman through Nixon. The book is extremely engaging, but he's so repetitive that he could have cut a lot to make more room for Ford, Carter, Bush I, Clinton, Taft, Harding, Coolidge, Hoover -- all presidents he mostly ignores. He could have also expanded the scope of his Cold War discussion. 

Here's how I think Kissinger would rank presidents in regards to Foreign Policy:

Tier 1 - President's that were completely flawless in foreign policy: Nixon. 

Kissinger certainly has some bias here. Any failing to Nixon were considered due to anti-war doves, radical war hawks, and to Watergate. Nixon returns the US to Realpolitik (national interests and balance of power) from Wilsonian foreign policy (foreign policy as a moral crusade).

Tier 2 - President's that were close-to-flawless on Foreign Policy but aren't Nixon: Wilson, FDR, Reagan.

Wilson is considered the "founder" of American-style foreign policy. Wilson's flaw, according to Kissinger, is that once abroad, he neglected homefront politics, a mistake that undermined his goals.

FDR's flaw is that he trusted Stalin to pull through as a reliable post-war partner in European rebuilding. What's interesting is that FDR's goal was to pull the US completely out of Europe after 2 years, leaving the UK in charge. FDR was also going to make foreign aid contingent on decolonization. In short, FDR was planning to make his 4th term completely domestic (2nd Bill of Rights, also called the Domestic Bill of Rights). FDR died, obviously. 

Kissinger is not once critical of Reagan's foreign policy, basically stating Reagan didn't make any mistakes. However, he admits that Reagan's anti-intellectualism (had no knowledge of another country's history and had no interest in details of foreign policy) had him wondering how anyone would ever elect Reagan as governor or president. He was often shocked at how much Reagan didn't know, and how often Reagan would say something incorrect when talking to another head of state. Kissinger states that Reagan was successful because he was the right person at the right time. Unlike other presidents, Reagan had a clear end-goal he wanted to achieve and used his rhetoric to build support for that end-goal. He marched toward his policy goal like a true believer, just trusting it was the right move. Kissinger states Reagan's desire aligned with what needed to be done at the moment. Kissinger admits that Reagan would likely have been a foreign policy disaster in the 1950s and 1960s. Reagan is mentioned as arming authoritarians and religious fundamentalists but Kissinger makes no judgment on this.

Tier 3 - Good foreign policy presidents that had some slip ups: Theodore Roosevelt, Truman, Eisenhower, Kennedy

Th Roosevelt is considered the first president to use Foreign Policy Internationalism as a standard US policy. That is, intervening in other nation's affairs, brokering peace between two other countries, etc. He states that Roosevelt's huge flaw was that he was heavily under the influence of Bismarck's realpolitiks, which Kissinger believed was outdated and also more suitable for a country in Europe. He implies that Roosevelt might have been a bad foreign policy president if he had won in 1912. 

Kissinger considers Truman a great president. In fact, with the exception of LBJ, all Democratic presidents seem to be superior to Republicans in foreign policy until Nixon. I'm not sure when Kissinger became political, but he did support Nelson Rockefeller, the liberal GOP nominee, in 1968. While Truman is considered great, Kissinger gives Truman some blame for the loss stalemate in Korea, although I think Kissinger makes a greater case that his general didn't know what they were doing. 

Eisenhower scores several successes for Kissinger, but he's considered confusing. His rhetoric was often contradicted by his actions, such as not intervening when Hungary was invaded. He frequently upset allies by not doing what he was expected to do or was alluding that he might do (Suez Crisis). Eisenhower was strongest in his first term. Seemed to get worse in foreign policy in his 2nd term. Kissinger also affixes blame for Vietnam on Eisenhower, as Eisenhower's Doctrine tied the US to intervention against Communism outside of Europe. Kissinger also believes Eisenhower would have failed in Vietnam had he invaded because he thinks Eisenhower had almost no knowledge of guerilla warfare and would have used standard battle tactics in an environment where that wouldn't work. Kissinger often thinks presidents won't adapt. 

Kennedy is considered a smarter foreign policy mind than Eisenhower. He gives JFK "credit" for the concept of national building. Kissinger notes JFK escalated troop buildups in Vietnam, and that he could have (should have) pulled troops out of Vietnam on Nov 2 1963 when Diem was assassinated. Kissinger calls this moment the last time troops could have been pulled out without a loss of prestige or loss of lives. He assumes JFK would have replicated LBJ's policy in Vietnam. Gore Vidal, who knew JFK personally, also believed JFK would have escalated involvement in Vietnam. Vidal thinks JFK would have been even more gung-ho in Vietnam than LBJ.

Tier 4 - Not worthy of much discussion: Taft, Harding, Coolidge, Hoover, Ford, Carter, Bush I, Clinton

The 1920 GOP are considered to have had an unwise isolationist foreign policy, which helped lead to Hitler. 

Taft is just seen as a continuation of Roosevelt's foreign policy, but is given no specifics for his term. 

Ford continued Nixon's policies of detente and is credited with instituting human rights into diplomacy. 

Carter is said to have made human rights his focus. He's continues detente. He ends a bunch of military technology programs that Reagan reinstitutes. 

Bush I is given a positive tone on foreign policy (Gulf War, New World Order, and starting NAFTA) but isn't given much detail. 

Clinton has some of his policies mentioned, and fulfilling NAFTA. Very little detail. 

Tier 5 - Only president since Th Roosevelt to be a failure in foreign policy: LBJ

Kissinger spends some time defending LBJ in getting more involved in Vietnam. He thinks LBJ was forced in (LBJ did want to focus on domestics) because he inherited JFK's administration and policies. By the time he was elected in his own right, it was too late to pull out. As he couldn't pull out, he then wanted to attempt to win it. LBJ gets to the point in which negotiations could have allowed for a two-state solution (similar to the two Koreas). However, he says LBJ undermined his own negotiations by calling ceasefires in his final year in office, after he had declared he would not run for reelection. Kissinger thinks the real reason LBJ didn't run for reelection was for his health and not because of a primary showing. Kissinger thinks that if LBJ had dramatically increased bombings and airstrike through the 1964 election that he would have likely negotiated a solution (likely a two-state plan) that would have also seen LBJ reelected. Kissinger says that LBJ was generally unsure of what to do when it came to foreign policy.

I suspect that Kissinger would mostly be in favor of Bush II and Obama, but not of Trump and Biden. I think he would fault Obama for not having done more in what he was doing (half-committed efforts), and faulted Bush for not getting allies more involved in what he was doing. 

Kissinger's hawkish views are definitely opposite of my dovish views, but I found the book interesting nonetheless.  

 

 

[vcczar]

15 minutes ago, Patine said:

Henry Kissinger have practically the poster boy of the Western hypocrisy of claiming a, "higher ground," in conduct and motive over the Soviets in the Cold War. He was the epitimony that showed that Cold War was a dirty war, with no, "good guys," and no, "right side," and that the U.S. and West Bloc were not truly fighting for democracy and freedom in the world, but just to spite, tit for tat, the Soviets, and in just as despicable. Although he didn't start the idea, he greatly capitalized on the fact that U.S. foreign policy in the area centred on installing tyrants - usually against the local people's will or support, and sometimes by overthrowing legitimately elected governments whose views were, "inconvenient," and who were no worse, at heart, as a rule than the Soviet pawns and tyrants they were either replacing or stopping from coming to power. This sponsor and supporter of butchers, tyrants, and monster belongs rotting in a war crimes prison, and deserves no respect or credence for his twisted retrospective on one of the darkest eras and dirtiest and most dishonorable conflicts of modern history.

Yeah, I disagree with Kissinger on almost everything. He's what led to Cheney, Bush, Rumsfeld in many ways.

[Timur]

9 hours ago, vcczar said:

Kennedy is considered a smarter foreign policy mind than Eisenhower. He gives JFK "credit" for the concept of national building. Kissinger notes JFK escalated troop buildups in Vietnam, and that he could have (should have) pulled troops out of Vietnam on Nov 2 1963 when Diem was assassinated. Kissinger calls this moment the last time troops could have been pulled out without a loss of prestige or loss of lives. He assumes JFK would have replicated LBJ's policy in Vietnam. Gore Vidal, who knew JFK personally, also believed JFK would have escalated involvement in Vietnam. Vidal thinks JFK would have been even more gung-ho in Vietnam than LBJ.

 

 

Indeed in one of those taped conversations of Nixon he says that Vietnam is "Kennedy's fault."

[Timur]

9 hours ago, vcczar said:

 

Tier 5 - Only president since Th Roosevelt to be a failure in foreign policy: LBJ

I suspect that Kissinger would mostly be in favor of Bush II and Obama, but not of Trump and Biden. I think he would fault Obama for not having done more in what he was doing (half-committed efforts), and faulted Bush for not getting allies more involved in what he was doing. 

 

 

https://www.ft.com/content/926a66b0-8b49-11e8-bf9e-8771d5404543

https://www.politico.com/story/2016/12/henry-kissinger-donald-trump-232785