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2022 Election Poll (September 2022)


vcczar
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Who wins the following 2022 races? (ratings are by 538 and not from myself)  

24 members have voted

  1. 1. AK (Solid R)

    • Murkowski - R
    • Tshibaka - R
      0
    • Chesbro - D
      0
  2. 2. AZ (Likely D)

  3. 3. CO (Likley D)

    • Bennet - D
    • O'Dea - R
      0
  4. 4. FL (Likely R)

  5. 5. GA (Tossup)

  6. 6. IA (Solid R)

    • Grassley - R
    • Franken - D
      0
  7. 7. LA (Solid R)

    • Whoever is the R nominee
    • Whoever is the D nominee
      0
  8. 8. MO (Solid R)

    • Schmitt - R
    • Busch Valentine - D
      0
  9. 9. NC (Lean R)

  10. 10. NV (Lean D)

  11. 11. NH (Likely D)

    • Hassan - D
    • Bolduc - R
      0
  12. 12. OH (Lean R)

  13. 13. PA (Likely D)

  14. 14. WA (Solid D)

    • Murray - D
    • Smiley - R
      0
  15. 15. WI (Tossup)

  16. 16. 538 gives Democrats only a 24% chance of keeping control of the US House. If Democrats get the results in the US Senate that you see above, who wins the US House?

    • Democrats gain
    • Democrats lose seats but hold the House
    • Republicans take the House
    • Red Wave -- Republicans gain significantly in the US House.
      0


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I think the US Senate race, Warnock vs Walker, will be the race to watch to see which way the wind blows for Democrats in the US Senate. 

For the US House, keep an eye on NJ-7 as Democrat incumbent Malinowski is in a Lean R race against Kean. If Malinowski wins, the 538 algorithm goes from 24% chance of Dem control of the US House to 47%. 

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Joe Biden was here in Philadelphia. I was kind of glad I didn't go to the speech. It was decent, but I was expecting something more action-packed for a primetime speech. The speech was about 30 minutes. It focused on attacking MAGA Republicans while underscoring that MAGA Republicans are not the majority of most Republicans. The speech was sort of general as it didn't have too many specific and relied more on repeating that we are the "UNITED" states of America and a Democracy and that MAGA is threat to both of these ideals. The speech mentioned no names. Some of what he said was drowned out by MAGA Republicans on bullhorns, which he said, "were entitled" to do just that, although he did sling some insults regarding them at other points. I could tell it was distracting him from the teleprompter. 

I'd give the idea of the speech an A+. I'd give the speech itself a C+. I'd give the delivery a C. I'm starting to wonder if there was an original script and then they decided to scrap it in the last moment. 

On another note, I think Biden is going to be using a cane in 4 years. He seemed really stiff walking from Independence Hall to the platform just in front of the entrance.  

Overall, I think the importance of the speech is draw the line for Midterms 2022 between those critical of Trump (Democrat or Republican) and those who are not. Since most of the GOP nominees are Trump allies, it is effectively attempting to make the Midterms Democrats vs Trump.

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2 hours ago, vcczar said:

Joe Biden was here in Philadelphia. I was kind of glad I didn't go to the speech. It was decent, but I was expecting something more action-packed for a primetime speech. The speech was about 30 minutes. It focused on attacking MAGA Republicans while underscoring that MAGA Republicans are not the majority of most Republicans. The speech was sort of general as it didn't have too many specific and relied more on repeating that we are the "UNITED" states of America and a Democracy and that MAGA is threat to both of these ideals. The speech mentioned no names. Some of what he said was drowned out by MAGA Republicans on bullhorns, which he said, "were entitled" to do just that, although he did sling some insults regarding them at other points. I could tell it was distracting him from the teleprompter. 

I'd give the idea of the speech an A+. I'd give the speech itself a C+. I'd give the delivery a C. I'm starting to wonder if there was an original script and then they decided to scrap it in the last moment. 

On another note, I think Biden is going to be using a cane in 4 years. He seemed really stiff walking from Independence Hall to the platform just in front of the entrance.  

Overall, I think the importance of the speech is draw the line for Midterms 2022 between those critical of Trump (Democrat or Republican) and those who are not. Since most of the GOP nominees are Trump allies, it is effectively attempting to make the Midterms Democrats vs Trump.

You expected Joe Biden to be action packed?  Haha.

And ain’t no shame in the cane game.  I’ve developed arthritis in both knees and I’m using a cane until doctors can find a more permanent solution.  And considering I’m literally less than half Biden’s age, I’ll give him the win on that front.

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9 hours ago, MrPotatoTed said:

You expected Joe Biden to be action packed?  Haha.

And ain’t no shame in the cane game.  I’ve developed arthritis in both knees and I’m using a cane until doctors can find a more permanent solution.  And considering I’m literally less than half Biden’s age, I’ll give him the win on that front.

I don't know much about arthritis, how is it developed? I'm screwed if I ever get it because I don't drive. I walk everywhere and take public transportation. Sorry to hear. Make sure your cane is distinctive, like sword cane or something. 

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9 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I don't know much about arthritis, how is it developed? I'm screwed if I ever get it because I don't drive. I walk everywhere and take public transportation. Sorry to hear. Make sure your cane is distinctive, like sword cane or something. 

Haha, I actually did look at a sword cane.  But it felt preposterous. Ha.  Plus I have a kid at home, who is already using my wooden cane like a toy.  A big part of being a dad is developing a solid knack for seeing the future, and in this case I foresaw a lot of children's ER visits if I brought a sword home. Haha.

Arthritis can have a variety of causes.  Genetics, weight, other medical problems causing arthritis as a side effect, etc.  I've got all three working against me, so that's fun. ;c)  But I've got a whole host of medical appointments and physical therapy etc over the next couple weeks so I'm hoping to get this resolved asap.  I'm in another musical right now where I play a super successful guy who has his life together and the main character is jealous of.  I can't be walking like a Tin Man/Zombie on stage -- to say nothing of my big dance number. ;c)

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1 minute ago, MrPotatoTed said:

Haha, I actually did look at a sword cane.  But it felt preposterous. Ha.  Plus I have a kid at home, who is already using my wooden cane like a toy.  A big part of being a dad is developing a solid knack for seeing the future, and in this case I foresaw a lot of children's ER visits if I brought a sword home. Haha.

Arthritis can have a variety of causes.  Genetics, weight, other medical problems causing arthritis as a side effect, etc.  I've got all three working against me, so that's fun. ;c)  But I've got a whole host of medical appointments and physical therapy etc over the next couple weeks so I'm hoping to get this resolved asap.  I'm in another musical right now where I play a super successful guy who has his life together and the main character is jealous of.  I can't be walking like a Tin Man/Zombie on stage -- to say nothing of my big dance number. ;c)

You just need to wield the cane on stage as if it is proof that you have your life together. Just add a cane and top hat. I used to own a sword cane. I have can with a gold (fake) knob on it now for a 19th century costume I have. I don't mind canes, but I'll refuse to use a walker. I'll either use two canes or I'll just tape myself onto a segway or electic scooter. 

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2 minutes ago, vcczar said:

You just need to wield the cane on stage as if it is proof that you have your life together. Just add a cane and top hat. I used to own a sword cane. I have can with a gold (fake) knob on it now for a 19th century costume I have. I don't mind canes, but I'll refuse to use a walker. I'll either use two canes or I'll just tape myself onto a segway or electic scooter. 

A girl I went to high school with is already having to use a walker due to some kind of chronic illness -- she otherwise looks perfectly healthy, thin, young...but at 39 she's likely going to need a walker for the rest of her life.

All you young kids out there, enjoy your knees while you have them!

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1 hour ago, vcczar said:

You just need to wield the cane on stage as if it is proof that you have your life together. Just add a cane and top hat. I used to own a sword cane. I have can with a gold (fake) knob on it now for a 19th century costume I have. I don't mind canes, but I'll refuse to use a walker. I'll either use two canes or I'll just tape myself onto a segway or electic scooter. 

Segways eh... surely you're a fan of the legendary segway driver: Paul Blart

Paul Blart Mall Cop GIFs - Get the best GIF on GIPHY

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1 hour ago, MrPotatoTed said:

A girl I went to high school with is already having to use a walker due to some kind of chronic illness -- she otherwise looks perfectly healthy, thin, young...but at 39 she's likely going to need a walker for the rest of her life.

All you young kids out there, enjoy your knees while you have them!

Yeah, I've been lucky. My sister has had knee issues since she was a teenager. My brother has had back issues. I've sprained or twisted an ankle, but so far that's the worst that's happened leg wise.  That happen while playing pickup basketball for the first time in like 20 years right before the Covid pandemic. Within 15 minutes of playing, I was out of commission. I've also sprained an arm, but I've never had anything broken or anything like that. Definitely luck because I've been active enough to put myself in position for injuries a lot, especially when I was younger and played tackle football almost every day without football pads. 

My health issues are blood pressure and cholesterol-related. Probably circulatory too. My fingers are like icicles whenever it gets below 70 degrees. 

 

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