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1st GOP debate

vcczar

By vcczar
in Political Forum

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1st GOP debate  

22 members have voted

  1. 1. Should Trump skip the debate?

  2. 2. Will your watch the debate?

  3. 3. Trump said he will skip and do an interview instead. Will you watch that?

  4. 4. If you had to choose one to watch what would you watch?

    • Debate w/o Trump
      22
    • Trump interview
      0

  5. 5. Who will win the debate if Trump is not present?

    • DeSantis
      0
    • Scott
      3
    • Pence
      0
    • Haley
      3
    • Ramaswamy
      8
    • Christie
      8
    • Other low polling GOP candidate
      0

  6. 6. Should Biden try to debate RFK Jr and Williamson

  7. 7. Would Biden win a debate against RFK Jr?

  8. 8. Would Trump win if he went to the GOP debate

  9. 9. Will Trump’s margin over GOP rivals decrease after the debate?


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Rezi

Rezi

Posted
Posted

I have to wonder how Trump skipping out changes Christie’s calculus. Obviously his whole shtick was being an attack dog against Trump, but now does he still attack Trump, shift towards establishing himself as his own candidate, or decide to attack someone else, probably DeSantis or Vivek?

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DakotaHale

DakotaHale

Posted
Posted

Thoughts:

DeSantis: ok but boring

Vivek: Too exciting. Took too much risk and prob not good. 

Haley: Smart. But not important for the GOP nomination. 

Christie: Prob the best debater on stage but shit the bed tonight.

Scott: Was ok

Everyone else doesn't matter

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DakotaHale

DakotaHale

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, ShortKing said:

I agree Haley did really well and I also thought Pence did well, not that it matters or moves votes

Forgot about Pence. He did good. But he can't win 50% of the vote. Will be prob the finisher behind Trump and DeSantis. I honestly don't know if Ramaseamy will improve or decline on this performance. Could be either

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ShortKing

ShortKing

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, DakotaHale said:

Forgot about Pence. He did good. But he can't win 50% of the vote. Will be prob the finisher behind Trump and DeSantis. I honestly don't know if Ramaseamy will improve or decline on this performance. Could be either

can't speak to how others will perceive him but this debate made me like him a lot less. It also made me like DeSantis less. I came away from the debate liking Pence, Haley, Scott and Burgum more. Christie and Hutch are basically static in my estimation. 

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Rezi

Rezi

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, DakotaHale said:

Forgot about Pence. He did good. But he can't win 50% of the vote. Will be prob the finisher behind Trump and DeSantis. I honestly don't know if Ramaseamy will improve or decline on this performance. Could be either

I think Ramaswamy helped himself amongst the MAGA base. I see him hitting 2nd place and continuing to siphon from DeSantis.

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Willthescout7

Willthescout7

Posted
Posted

Vivek will eventually hit the wall that is Trump since unless he finds a way to out maga him. I think the Moderate lane will condense behind Haley/Scott/Pence. Hopefully two of those 3 realize they need to drop out to allow the other one to go toe to toe with Trump. In the end it will be a matter of whether there are enough hidden not maga republicans to outnumber the vocal maga folk

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DakotaHale

DakotaHale

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, Willthescout7 said:

Vivek will eventually hit the wall that is Trump since unless he finds a way to out maga him. I think the Moderate lane will condense behind Haley/Scott/Pence. Hopefully two of those 3 realize they need to drop out to allow the other one to go toe to toe with Trump. In the end it will be a matter of whether there are enough hidden not maga republicans to outnumber the vocal maga folk

Hm

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vcczar

vcczar

Posted
  • Author
Posted

I'm watching the debate now. My early thoughts are:

DeSantis: Still can't smile like a human and he seems to not understand volume control. His comments also seem staged. He's losing. Smiling seems to be painful for him. 

Ramaswamy: He's the most annoying candidate. Most punchable. He also reminds me of the types of students that think they're smart because they get away with cheating (until I catch them). It's also clear he doesn't know how government works. Oblivious to foreign affars. Definitely the most problematic candidate. This means he's probably winning among GOP voters but he's losing under traditional debate criteria. He hasn't enough knowledge. I like how Christie said he sounded like ChatGPT. That was funny. 

Pence: You know I disagree with Pence on almost everything, but I think he's debating well and coming off as professional, aside from interrupting people a lot. He's being tougher than I expected he would. He's possibly one of those winning right now. 

Borghum: Likable but invisible.

Hutchinson: Likable, less invisible. Handling himself well with limited time. 

Christie: Easily the most watchable. He's predictably the toughest, but he seems to be only at 80% in this debate. I'm waiting for him to shred someone. He's doing well at answering questions. 

Scott: Likable but background. He's really losing this because he needs to compete with Haley and DeSantis and he's not really asserting himself. He's VP material perhaps. 

Haley: She's probably winning the debate. She's not as tough or sound-bitey as Christie but she's probably saying more things that matter to GOP voters. She's debating well and coming off as professional. She may end up outpolling DeSantis eventually. She's also being aggressive. 

I think that's everyone. Most people only watch the beginning of a debate, so I'm typing this during the crucial part of the debate. Here's my prediction:

DeSantis falls by 5% on average. Haley gains 7%, Pence 1%, Hutchinson 1%, and Ramaswamy gains 5% . Trump loses 8%. Borghum loses his 1%. Scott loses 2%. Christie gains 1%. Trump loses most of his 8% to Ramaswamy. Trump is still the clear frontrunner. 

I'll post again if my statesments are significantly altered by the end of this debate. 

 

 

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