Entrecampos

Our portuguese communist party continues and was the only left party in Europe that voted pro Putin today in European Union. They say that the other portuguese parties are united with Far Right that also voted pro Ukraine.

I can't understand how Portuguese Communist Party fully supports a nationalist far right politician like Putin and keeps saying that the problem is USA, OTAN and EU, I can't understand really.

I changed totally the map. Now is a simulation of 9 different Elections (Portugal, Brazil, USA, Canada, Australia, UK, France, Germany, European Union). I finished Portugal for now.

Nope. I will treat them as nations. But I will divide USA at least and probably Canada, Australia and a bit of Europe. Example map.

I will create a giant real world scenario in PMI, a Jack of All trades. It will contain many contests and features. *A world map with many subregions (167 nations+27+16+51+22+19+13 = 315 individual subregions). *Fight for Democracy vs Dictatorship in all 167 nations following 2021 Democracy Index. *European 2019 Elections (every individual 27 European Union nations with the main European Groups). *German 2021 Elections with 16 main regions and parties. *USA 2020 Elections with every 50+1 states and 2 big parties. *UK 2019 with 22 main regions and parties. *Canada 2021 Elections with 19 main regions and parties. *Australia 2019 Elections with 13 main regions and parties.

Will be possible to mod USA to change for UK or Portugal for example with a campaign editor? I understand that its almost impossible in this huge scope, but I can dream ahahahaha.

Will I need to wait some months or is possible to play alpha/beta versions already if I buy the game? The same question for Congress 2022.

Actual probabilities Trump vs Biden 2024.

% of being first. % of second round % Other places. Error Magin Second round possible scenarios. Intersections. Who wins vs who

I think Presidential Humberto Delgado vs Americo Thomaz in 1958 or 1969 National Assembly elections would be super interesting, even if those elections were fake. I can try to do something by 1910s times, but would be much more harder, I would need to create something alternative based in my perspectives, because the lack of information. Anyway, my first scenario would be 1975.

If you help me, I can do every portuguese general scenario from 1975 until 2022. map.bmp

Patine... I need help. I bought Chancellor Forever but I cant edit it alone. I need somebody to put real regions and mapping it and I do the rest. Im very confuse with a lack of modern editors.

This was the PS optimistc scenario at 31 December, very similar to real results.

PS won with the smallest absolute majority I seen in Portugal, only 41%. I given PS victory but not by so much, I made the best prediction overall when comparing with all pollsters, anyway I feeled like Nate Silver in 2020. PS was a complete outlier.

We have a technical toss-up between PS and PSD and left bloc and right bloc in 4 of our 5 pollsters. Will be very interesting. This is my actual prediction. https://jrdaniel.shinyapps.io/paragrafo/ Today I will update and psd will be much closer.

Adjusted. Until now this is top 10 NBA ever post 1984 1.Michael Jordan (1953 Peak) 2.Magic Johnson (1906 Peak) 2.Kareem Abdul Jabaar (1763 Peak)

I will explore many possibilities, I created the basis for doing many Portugal scenarios. First future scenario for PMI will be 1975 realistic Constitutional Scenario. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1975_Portuguese_Constituent_Assembly_election After many gateways of history open... That you need to follow. If PS wins, you need to play 1976 official scenario, that follows this election. PS 1975 -> 1976? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_Portuguese_legislative_election If PSD wins in 1975, Actual constitution will not be approved (and Road to Socialism and end of classes phrases in Constitution). After many popular angryness, PCP made a state coup that was succesful at 25 November of 1975. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coup_of_25_November_1975 Alvaro Cunhal was elected by central commitee as Supreme Leader in 1 December of 1975, supported by USSR. Portugal followed a hardline communist regime, similar to nations like in the East Europe, without any form of democracy until Perestroika. In 1990 we had a counter-coup of state and Cunhal was jailed. 1992 marks the year that we had 100% democratic elections again. Cavaco Silva the centre-left candidate, after PS/PSD union will run vs Paulo Portas, the super young and charismatic centre right candidate of the new PP party, ahead of polls, that defends banning communism symbols. Cavaco Silva defends Public investments and building good highways that connect Portugal with Europe, defends Portugal to enter EU too. Portas assumes a more eurosceptic position. Who will win? Play the 1992 hypotethical elections. that will choose the leader for the Portuguese Presidentialist Fourth Republic that has mandates of 5 years. PSD -> CDU -> ? http://aventar.eu/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/portas4.jpg If Cavaco Silva wins in 1992, Portugal will enter EU in 01/01/1994, and will have 2 years of the strongest economical growth ever surpassing 60/70s years, thanks to EU funds. growing 12% in 1994 and 9% in 1995, 1996 and 1997. Portas will re-run in 1997 with a harder job, this time he is behind election polls. the big question for political analyst pundits is knowing if Cavaco will win in first or second round. 1997 Scenario PSD -> CDU -> PSD - > ? If Portas wins 1992 elections, he will win popularity with easy economical growth and will provoke early elections, trying absolute majority. Will he win with more than 50% Votes? You will discover that in 13 September 1993 Elections (My birthday). He will run vs Santana Lopes the successor of Cavaco in PPD-PS, after he lost 1992 elections. 1993 Scenario PSD -> CDU -> CDS -> ? Returning to 1975, If Cunhal wins 1975 elections, he will not have absolute majority of seats and will need a left coalition with Mario Soares, Soares accepts, but only if Cunhal promises to keep democracy with a referendum. Cunhal accepts doing a referendum for making Portuguese choose between a Popular Democracy and a Western Democracy, that will be heavily rigged probably (prepare to have 5 seats already won by popular Democracy of a possible total of 27). So you will have a referendum in 1976 for determining if Portugal will be the new Cuba or a democracy. Western Democracy is ahead of polls by a very slim margin, 52% vs 46%. 1975 PCP -> Referendum -> ? If Popular Democracy Portugal will do a slow transition for a Cuban type regime, and Soares and all opposition will be jailed between 1977 and 1978. A coup of state happens in 1988, and Cunhal is killed with a bomb. Soares is acclaimed as the biggest Figure of Democracy! Will participate in 1989 elections. And if favoured to win elections without any type of opposition, except Francisco Lupas Pires. The difference in polls is giant, 82% vs 13% of Francisco Lucas Pires. 1975 PCP -> Referendum -> 1989 Elections ? If Popular Democracy loses in 1975 referendum, Soares will do a very weak unpopular coaliton with a frail Central Bloc, that didnt won vs Cunhal in 1975 election in Portuguese public opinion. That will last until early 1978, when PSD breaks with the coalition. PS will suffer a Pasokification and will be with 14% in 1978 polls. In 1978 elections Sa Carneiro and Alvaro Cunhal are the biggest contenders. Sa Carneiro with 32% and Cunhal with 24%. Freitas do Amaral with 17% is stronger than Soares. Interesting and disputed election. 1975 PCP -> Referendum -> 1978 Elections ? If Sa Carneiro wins, he will finish his mandate until 1982 forming a coalition with CDS, anyway, with a super strong left, and weak anemic stagnant 1% economical growth, PSD will have a very hard task in these elections, knowing this, forms AD (Alianca Democratica with CDS also), this time with weak 29%. As an answer MDP/CDE and UDP and other small left parties unite, forming Unidade Popular do Povo Trabalhador (UPPT), with Otelo Saraiva de Carvalho as frontrunner, with 10% in polls. PCP continues strong, but not huge, with 27% in polls, not capitalizing much because UPPT and PS. Who Will Win? PS recovers to 22% now with Salgado Zenha as leader, he is more leftist than Soares. 1975 PCP -> Referendum -> 1978 Elections PSD -> 1982? Left will form majority, the question is who will be in first, more moderate PS, or more radical PCP with a UPPT that can do the difference. UPPT and PCP are clear, can do a coalition with PS, but never together (UPPT + PCP will be impossible). Surprisingly an young maoist called Durao Barroso is elected by Lisbon District with the support of PCTP/MRPP a student popular party but with small presence in other cities where Universities dont exist. If PS wins in 1982 with UPPT, Otelo turns the Defense Minister. The problem is that this government is an economical disaster with hardcore Collectivist and agrarian reforms, has a disastrous -3% growth in 1983 and ends asking for IMF help. UPPT coalition ends in internal struggles. PCP capitalizes, the same for Right. Right new candidate in early 1984 elections is the right wing Carlos Mota Pinto he will compete with and weak Mario Soares. Carlos Mota Pinto is the favorite with 35% in polls, Mario Soares has only 23%, and APU the new Communist alliance with some ex-UPPT small parties has 21% in polls. PRD is created with the support of President Ramalho Eanes, is a centre party between PS and PSD. Returning to 1976 after PS victory in 1975, If PS wins 1976, we will have Soares government and a 1979 election that will end with Sa Carneiro AD (PSD+CDS) victory. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1979_Portuguese_legislative_election If PCP wins in 1976, reactionary forces, more organized after falled Leftist 25 November coup attempt, will try a Revolution in 1977 that succeeds, Marcello Caetano returns to Portugal and turns the new President without any form of direct election vote. All parties are dissolved and banned with communism and anarchy agenda theory, except PSD that turns Ala Liberal, CDS that turns the Christian Democracy Party and PPM that continues to be the party that defends the return of Monarchy. PDC surges, and is the favorite party of Caetano. By Caetano decision rigged elections can continue to happen but only if these forces conccur. The new constitution says that different governments can be elected if respect Caetano Presidential position until his death. So we will have rigged 1979 election between Spinola, a famous conservative general that was briefly President in 1974 after Carnage Revolution and Jose Hermano Saraiva an Estado Novo intellectual Education minister and history teacher. 1975 PS -> 1976 PS -> 1977 Estado Novo Coup of state -> 1979 Elections. Caetano dies suddenly in 4 December of 1980, in his testament he says that Portugal needs a referendum to choose between Democracy and Monarchy. The New Restored Portugal Republic (Republica Nova Portuguesa) ends in a calm way, with people tired of Authoritarian regimes. The last will of Marcello isnt respected in Spinola won 1979 elections, he will do immediately a presidential regime, where he is the main candidate vs Vasco Lourenco that is supported by all left. The Socialist Democratic Party (PDS) is this big coalition that put Social Democrats, Leninists, Maoists, Socialists, Trotskysts and other types of left together. Anyway Monarchy Referendum is respected if Jose Hermano Saraiva wins. The polls give 34% of Monarchy and 57% Republic. What will be the future Portuguese system? 1975 PS -> 1976 PCP -> 1977 Coup and Caetano until 1980 death -> 1981 Monarchy Referendum. If Monarchy wins 1981 Referendum, Duarte of Braganca turns the new King. If Loses, A new presidential election will happen in late 1981 between moderate centrist General Ramalho Eanes and left wing Comrade Vasco Goncalves. Will be very close, but Ramalho Eanes if the favorite with 51% vs 42% in a second round.

Lisbon. But Im suspect... I live in Lisbon district.

https://jrdaniel.shinyapps.io/paragrafo/

1985 = 13301986 = 13501987 = 14091988 = 14651989 = 14651990 = 14501991 = 14771992 = 14531993 = 15001995 = 13771996 = 14381997 = 13591998 = 13382002 = 10092003 = 1090 Absolute Peak 27/01/1989 = 1525 Finished

Im analysing Michael Jordan career, game by game. Made every NBA game from regular and playoffs. Peak until now = 1525 ,27 January 1989. Vice-Peak = 1500, 20 June 1993. Actual Value = 1438, 16 June 1996.

Improved edition but names like P, S , etc are for fast simulation objectives. I will correct later. Herois do Mar.rar

I will be creative, I will create individual 230 MPs and give chances to every medium and large party to elect. But this is the hyper realistic scenario, the other will be for funny and playing reasons.

In opposition to this 2 images, Portuguese elections in reality will be very close. Something more like this, by my models.

Some pictures. ortugal Game 2.rar