Entrecampos

Biden with -8.1% net approval with the actual model.

Omg, a portuguese communist mp now defends that Venezuela is good because oil is much cheaper and there is weekly cheap basket full of food by only 1€. He also denies Holodomor. Put this in english with translator. I think that 99% of left in Portugal is democratic, but there 1% of lunatics.

I was reading about Nuremberg trials yesterday, that were weird, I dont understand how Rudolf Hess wasnt killed and others were. Im against capital death, except in war cases... but if you consider that Rudolf Hess never shown any type of regret, i dont understand this criteria difference.

Model updated.

I made some changes in my rankings. Pennsylvania 2020.

Nothing, is how it appears in FiveThirtyEight.

For Wisconsin and Florida we can say, assuming that 98% votes GOP or DEM 49.1% Biden 48.9% Trump 50.9% Trump 47.1% Biden

Ranking Empresa Trump Biden 1 Trafalgar 49 47 2 Wick 50 47 3 Emerson College 46 52 4 Susquehanna 47 46 5 Rasmussen Reports 47 48 6 St.Pete Polls 48 49 7 Siena College 44 47 8 Insider Advantage 48 47 9 Quinnipiac 42 47 10 Morning Consult 45 52 11 AYTM 43 45 12 Swayable 46 53 13 Data for Progress 48 51 14 Frederick Polls 49 51 15 Change Research 48 51 16 Ipsos 46.5 50.5 17 RMG Research 47 51 18 ABC News 49.5 47.5 19 SurveyMonkey 48.5 49.5 20 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 44.33 50.67 Florida Intracampos 47.38 43.80

Results for Wisconsin 2020 with my Presidential model, I understand that some pollsters are better for different types of elections, Trafalgar is very good for Presidentials, not this good in the others. In Portugal this also happens, Catholic pollster is very good in mayorals and not this good in general elections, for example.

Ranking Pollsters Trump Biden 1 Trafalgar Group 47 48 2 AtlasIntel 49 51 3 Emerson College 45 53 4 Susquehanna 46 49 5 Siena College 41 52 6 Marquette Law School 43 47.5 7 Gravis Marketing 43 54 8 CNN/SSRS 44 51.5 9 YouGov 43.5 52 10 Morning Consult 41 54 11 Research Co. 42 50 12 Swayable 45 55 13 Fox News 44 48.5 14 Change Research 45 53 15 Ipsos 44 53 16 RMG Research 44 50 17 ABC News 39.5 56.5 18 Civiqs 47 51 19 SurveyMonkey 43.5 54.5 20 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 45 49 Wisconsin Entrecampos 47.46 47.68

Im frustrated, tried to do a poll, spent half an hour doing it and it didnt work at final idk why. Lost everything =L

As an european, what is doing Greece here? By their history? If they are by their history, so my nation would deserve second round too. If its by the present, doesnt make sense neither. But its my subjective opinion, of course.

My 2020 Elo System was much better than Trafalgar in Presidential Elections, but even my model had 0.5 to 1.0% GOP bias, and was enough to be wrong in the winner of Wisconsin, Arizona and Georgia (if my national voting share was 100% right, i woud be right in all states). Unfortunately its hard to search and find the perfection.

I need to admit one thing, I lost most of my time analysing pollsters in presidential elections, my elo system has 90% of data put in Presidential elections and 10% in other type of elections (because lack of time), and 0% of primaries, this ranking is made to be good in presidentials, not in other type of elections, I need to adjust Approval ratings from this Presidential elections rating to general elections rating (I will need some weeks maybe). Sorry for that.

Yes, governors and senate elections are harder to predict, the big majority of the other pollsters, have the same problems in these type of elections, they have very good records in presidential elections of 2016 and 2020, and this is my main way to evaluate pollsters (2.75% mean error versus 4.80% of Quinnipiac for example). They were rated as C- in 2020 by 538, and this was a enormous giant joke that I detected by that time. Comparing with Presidential predictions of Quinnipiac (I removed other type of elections) for example that has the same rating of Trafalgar in 538 now (A-), you see they are much worse. I know that 538 tries to do the overall between Presidentials and other elections, but for me Presidential polls have much more importance than the others.

I use an updated version of my 2020 Presidential election pollsters model that did a very good job predicting portuguese mayoral elections and USA 2020 elections (the best prediction in voting shares that I have knowledge).

RATING POLLSTER Biden Approval % Biden Disapproval % Biden Approval - Disapproval S+ Trafalgar 40 56 -16 B+ YouGov 42 48 -6 B+ Ipsos 48 47 1 B Rasmussen 43 56 -13 B Morning Consult 46 47 -1 C+ Quinnipiac University 38 53 -15 D- Redfield & Wilton Strategies 45 37 8 Entrecampos 42.3 52.5 -10.2

They rule the cities with enough power to make decisions about urbanism or building things like parks or transports. Not enough to make macrodecisions, like allowing or forbid abortion. I use a method that I used already in 2020 presidentials that evaluates pollsters by historical % precision using an elo system, if you remember the only state i falled by more than 5% was Georgia. I want to keep details private to have monopoly of predictions ahahaha. I will send USA predictions in next minutes.

Very good prediction! Im being praised in Portugal for doing the best prediction overall! We had surprises, our pollsters were a disaster, but... I was the only almost right in the number of mayors each party would win. Lisbon was won by centre right candidate (inside my margin of error +-4% altought), and I given 5.0% advantage to socialist candidate. Anyway our best poll given 7.5% advantage to socialist and we had even pollsters giving 24% advantage to socialists. My PS/L 36.7% vs PSD/CDS/PPM/MPT/A 31.7% seems very good in comparison.

My portuguese final update.

Portuguese Map with 2 blocs, Left (Pink) and Right (Blue)

If Emerson poll happens, this is the expected result to USA 2024.

1860 Election in 2021, Lincoln vs Breckinridge.