Entrecampos

Some USA predictions with this model. Biden vs Trump Some States Arizona 50.4% Trump 43.7% Biden Florida 49.6% Trump 48.9% Biden Georgia 48.3% Trump 45.1% Biden Iowa 52.6% Trump 40.7% Biden Michigan 51.4% Trump 42.7% Biden New Hampshire 47.1% Trump 46.7% Biden Pennsylvania 50.3% Trump 45.3% Biden Wisconsin 46.9% Trump 43.9% Biden 70% Polls + 30% Direct Swing or 80% Polls (If 2+Polls) +20% Direct Swing.

I analysed every pollster deeply, using exclusively math. I remember I made good predictions with a more simple rating in 2021 Virginia/NJ elections. This the top 20 Pollsters with at least 40 polls in their history. Ranking, Name, Expected Error Accuracy 1 - Trafalgar 3.93% error 2 - Public Opinion Strategis 3.95% error 3 - Strategic Vision LLC 4.23% error 4 - Landmark Communications 4.42% error 5 - SurveyUSA 4.44% error 6 - Siena College 4.46% error 7 - Selzer and Co. 4.52% error 8 - Research & Polling Co. 4.56% error 9 - Mason-Dixon Polling Strategy 4.57% error 10 - Rasmussen Reports 4.58% error 11 - Emerson College 4.63% error 12 - Gallup 4.65% error 13 - Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. 4.77% error 14 - Marist College 4.82% error 15 - ABC News/The Washington Post 4.84% error 16 - TCJ Research 4.86% 17 - Monmouth University 4.87% error 18 - We Ask America 4.93% error 19 - Dan Jones & Associates 4.95% error 20 - YouGov 4.96% error

Sorry for the time I was out. My NBA analysis is going at a somewhat slow pace (because lack of time), but i will show the actual top 10. I analyzed... 30 GAMES BOSTON CELTICS 28 GAMES MILWAUKEE BUCKS 28 GAMES DETROIT PISTONS 30 GAMES CHICAGO BULLS 26 GAMES CLEVELAND CAVALIERS 13 GAMES ATLANTA HAWKS 30 GAMES LOS ANGELES LAKERS Actual Top 10 is... 1.Magic Johnson = 6169 2.Larry Bird = 6134 3.Isiah Thomas = 5702 4.Michael Jordan = 5659 5.Kareem Abdul Jabaar = 5447 6.Sidney Moncrief = 5399 7.Terry Cummings = 5388 8.Doc Rivers = 5311 9.Kevin McHale = 4948 10.Orlando Woolridge = 4868

Virginia called for Youngkin.

3.2% advantage with 65%, but Essex is 1% accounted, heavy dem county.

My model seems to did better than 538 and RCP, but lets see.

Its seems Youngkin will win, but leta see.

And fourth Parties? Also suck? I agree with @patine, FPTP is the problem, not the third parties. If you had many different parties with power like we have in Portugal, where we have a nationalist, a conservative, a liberal, a social democrat, a socialist, an orthodox communist,a liberal-marxist and a green animalist parties. @Vcczar problems wouldnt exist. He would have space to vote in what he wants, without prejudicing major blocs.

Nothing against what you said. Im only adding information.

First exit Polls Youngkin 53% Approve 44% Disapprove +9% Net McAuliffe 44% Approve 53% Disapprove -9% Net

Things changed. Final prediction.

American Football won. I will do NFL together with NBA (because Im already analysing players from NBA season 1984-85 in last days). I did put NBA only to see the popularity here, I would do it anyway. When I finish NBA 1984-85 season I will start NFL analysis of QBs in the oldest season with reliable data (i need to search when was). I will post top 10 players season by season. This will be a project that will last 1 year probably.

Its official, Portugal government budget wasnt approved. Now Portugal President will do elections for January or February, it seems, lets see.

I will give 4 hours to all of you end voting. For now American Football (NFL) is winning. +2 Baseball +1 Basketball = 0 Soccer -1 Ice Hockey = -2 @Patine vote ⚽ if you want, i can do both male and female leagues (the same for Basketball).

Track and Field is my favorite sport. Female Association Football can be made, there is statistical information in Fbref about women doing the sport. Unfortunately I can't do Rugby, as I don't know any stastical source for that.

I will create a model to analyse historical players from one sport, what sport do you prefer? (Poll) I need volunteers to create a formula that evaluates a player individual game in the choosen sport -Something Like Sofascore Soccer Rating or Basketball BPM, if the choosen sport isnt soccer or basketball (I dont know if there are already game scores for the other sports too). I do the rest.

Im not happy with my algorithm (doesnt work well in no presidential elections). But for now, is the best i can offer.

This is the starting point, with actual results and my model applied in last election. Our elections will be very interesting and lively Im sure (for the first time in years). And we will have primaries (direct elections) in many parties at same time. It isnt 100% certain for now that elections will happen yet, but I would say 90%, because they will vote budget approval in day 27, and will not pass.

Early general elections in Portugal! Will happen in January it seems.

One of my reference websites. (That i interpret in a personal way, you cant see things linearly). Early answers have very small sample, so I did cut, because arent enough to conclusions, only late anwers. Race is very regular without major changes in the last month.

Ranking Empresa DEMs GOPs 1 WPA Intelligence* 44 42 2 Quinnipiac University 43.5 46.5 3 YouGov 42 37 4 Marist College 46 38 5 CNN/SSRS 45 42 6 Public Opinion Strategies 42 42 7 Lake Research Partners/Emerson College 45 41 8 McLaughlin & Associates 47.00 48.00 9 Echelon Insights 48.5 40 10 Change Research 47.5 45 11 The Winston Group* 46 43 12 Morning Consult 45 40 12 RMG Research 40 41 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 USA 2021 Generic Election Entrecampos 51.47 48.53