Entrecampos

I used linear regression in many issues from Isidewith state by state to understand candidates platform, and where they would have better results. We can estimate all states easily, even if they werent in USA yet. Sorry for being so much time out of the forum. I can do other elections after. 1828 election in 2021 (A.Jackson vs. J.Q.Adams) State A.Jackson Advantage Alabama 54.54 Alaska 27.22 Arizona 21.29 Arkansas 37.20 California -29.44 Colorado -9.49 Connecticut 9.59 Delaware 14.72 District of Columbia -21.51 Florida 21.94 Georgia 16.23 Hawaii -17.80 Idaho 31.49 Illinois -7.68 Indiana[20] 12.27 Iowa 17.25 Kansas 37.99 Kentucky 31.34 Louisiana 46.23 Maine -0.32 Maryland 2.07 Massachusetts -28.00 Michigan 1.42 Minnesota -1.83 Mississippi 77.01 Missouri 20.58 Montana 41.31 Nebraska 20.58 Nevada 4.60 New Hampshire -1.26 New Jersey 12.76 New Mexico 21.37 New York -3.00 North Carolina 21.22 North Dakota 58.96 Ohio[20] 25.56 Oklahoma 26.36 Oregon -23.43 Pennsylvania[20] 22.96 Rhode Island[20] 2.07 South Carolina 38.63 South Dakota 50.57 Tennessee 27.07 Texas 15.44 TOTALS: 7.13 Utah 3.16 Vermont[20] -37.03 Virginia 9.59 Washington -17.73 West virginia 43.77 wisconsin 19.78 wyoming 60.54

Wisconsin wasnt as obvious as polls were showing, region is turning more GOP since 2012 elections. Historical polling in Wisconsin usually is horrible. 2018 midterm elections showed GOP keeping all CDs (I didnt included that info in my predictions altought). I had strong arguments for a more disputed election there. And mainstream pollsters were the worse of all in general. When I seen +17 Biden Wisconsin in one poll I started joking. Because my model was only 30% based in polls, I could understand that Trump would do better in Wisconsin than predicted.

I made a politics/economic model mixed with an elo pollster rater that was right in all states by 4% margin. I predicted 3.8% advantage for Biden Only instead of 4.5% and called 3 wrong states (Wisconsin, Georgia and Arizona), but all could be right if my national vote advantage for Biden was right. And would be if I knew the real gdp 2020 growth annd unemployment rate like we know now. I think Bolsonaro polls have the same problem. Today was out one where he would lose 66-34,but I remember when he had 30% in first round 3 days before 2018 election in some polls and had 46%.

Victoria 2, followed by Europa Universalis 4 (where my nation is great). I like to play Victoria 2 with mods and I have an old pc. But I heard that the new EU4 expansion is horrible.

Lisbon city is probably one of the best world bellwethers. 45 of 46 Elections were won by who won Lisbon. All of General, Presidential, Euro elections, and almost all of mayoral elections (except 2009 mayorals). We have elections this year and PS is predicted to win Lisbon and mayorals.

Yes.

No, it was right, Clinton and Gore had more votes than Trump and Bush. The same for 1888 election, when Cleveland had more votes.

Northampton Votes Like Pennsylvania since 1952, not Michigan* St.Joseph is spectacular!

Im back. I forgot my past account. Im searching for USA popular vote bellwethers, and found 2 interesting. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northampton_County,_Pennsylvania Votes like Michigan since 1948. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._Joseph_County,_Indiana?fbclid=IwAR2Nz9xh8p4sl4bosl4Bi38OLocLQcjmSSwFKd5VmLFzjXXVFbFmsCH0o2w Votes like USA in all elections since 1888 except 1968 and 1976.