French Election 2022

[Edouard]

On 4/11/2022 at 11:57 PM, Timur said:

I think Le Pen has definitely softened her image with her photos of her with cats, her dropping her original plans to get out of the Euro, and her selfie with a Muslim woman.

A left-wing journalist has actually said "Marine le Pen est devenue la candidate des chats et du pouvoir d'achat" which gives in english "Marine le Pen has become the candidate of cats and purchasing power" but the game of words exclusively works in french 😄

Edited July 19, 2022 by Edouard

[Timur]

It seems that Melenchon always rises near the end and comes very close to the second round.

I remember this from a South Korea newspaper back in 2017 when Melenchon was starting to gain momentum.

Edited April 12, 2022 by Timur

[jvikings1]

9 hours ago, Edouard said:

Two-thirds of those under 35 voted either for Marine Le Pen (32%) or for Jean-Luc Mélenchon (33%) and only 17% for Emmanuel Macron, while the outgoing president did 39% among those over 65 years.

This is probably the most interesting demographic result. It doesn't surprise me to see Melenchon doing well, but Le Pen essentially tying him is not something I would have expected.

[Timur]

4 hours ago, jvikings1 said:

This is probably the most interesting demographic result. It doesn't surprise me to see Melenchon doing well, but Le Pen essentially tying him is not something I would have expected.

Aren't both of them left on the economy?

[Edouard]

On 4/12/2022 at 2:49 PM, Timur said:

Aren't both of them left on the economy?

Quite yes

Edited July 19, 2022 by Edouard

[jnewt]

On 4/11/2022 at 4:36 PM, Patine said:

Your still stuck on your arrogant, high horse, insulting claptrap. Do you have any idea how you really come across when, "trying to engage with me," or, "reach out to me?" Do you have any idea? You sound downright condescending, arrogant, and only capable of seeing one viewpoint - that of your, "friends." You say everything is because of my, "toxic viewpoints and behaviours," and I am the ONLY one who needs to change, and everything is about how I treat your, "friends," Did you EVER consider, for a minute, it take two to Tango, as the idiom I say? That your friends may also be toxic, and have obtuse viewpoints, and make no attempt to remedy situations or change their behaviours for the positive, either? And that maybe I feel that me unitlaterally trying to change always futile because some of your, "friends," just take it as an opportunity to be jackasses to turn up the heat to deliberately try to make me fail? I admit, i have some unorthodox, non-establish views (though, for the record, I did not say once I specifically BELIEVED the assassination rumour - I just said it shouldn't be dismissed off-hand JUST BECAUSE it's a First World Government, alone, and that all I said was only speculation and musing, and that I didn't know anything for sure, and Hestia shouldn't pretend he did - this is obviously stated in my original post on the issue), but I do not trust a lot of elements about modern First World Government many - though not all - posters here trust all too much, more than they should, and there are so many instances and so much evidence that is PROVABLE or even COMMON KNOWLEDGE that makes such trust and faith very foolish to have. The people must DEMAND - and settle for no less - than accountability, transparency, and honesty, and an end to seditious secrets, and impunity from their Governments, and REAL consequences for transgressions by politicians in office, and said politicians to behave like the PUBLIC SERVANT title in ALL of their job descriptions, not just say, "it's better than Third World nations, so we'll settle." And start developing a complex that shocking or insidious Government abuses only ever happen - or can happen - in the Third World, and don't, and can't happen in the First World, and only, "conspiracy theorists," would dare say otherwise.

And, going back to the allegation that I, "cause all problems on this forum, and my toxic conduct and behaviour is what needs changing (and all that needs changing), and I should take responsibility for my actions and stop blaming others," - I am so bone of this objective and provable LIE, insult, both to me, and to the intelligence of everyone here, this denial of reality, and this lopsided, disgusting declaration that the other bad actors - who, themselves, are also very toxic, very prone to insults (and often personal, and not just ones based on the viewpoints stated in a post - I rigorously try to avoid personal insults, the others I speak of have no such misgivings), they use a juvenile form of mockery of tomfoolery that further kills any credibility they may have otherwise held, as well as dogpiling and coordinating toxic behaviour (which I believe made Hestia's outburst on alleged but incorrect views of what I was in the most insulting and hyperbolic ways of stating more likely than it would have been to happen, otherwise) - that these bad actors have no, "blame," and you won't call them out under any circumstances, because they're your, "friends," and me calling them out, "insults," them, so I must take the blame. Can you not understand how IMMENSELY counter to - well, any values of civilized, rational, and good conduct - this is for you to expect me to swallow? And that you all chant this madness as if it were something at all credible? This is on par with among the most irrational, over-the-top, and out-of-proportion verdicts of the quarters-sessions courts of 1500's England!

But the fact is, your, "friends," are fully complicent in, and responsible for their behaviour, and must be held fully accountable. There is a lie started by vcczar, carried on by Dobs, and reiterated by you, that I never admit to the problems I cause here, and always try to blame others for my actions. The fact is, I am the ONLY one who has admitted to my hand in these affairs, and I seek to have others held responsible for their part, not mine. Your, "friends," indeed do what they do out of their full and knowing volition and choice, with relish and glee, and impunity - I do not, "make," them do a damned thing, or, "force their hand," and the notion is frankly ridiculous, and beneath contempt as a concept. It's time to stop scapegoating me for EVERYTHING (scapegoating is a loathsome and vile tactic beloved of infamous far-right movements that everyone on this forum professes a hatred and revulsion for), and realize that I can only do so much until your, "friends," pony up to their responsibility and part in these affairs and make an effort to knock off their toxic behaviour - and that people like you stop defending their toxic behaviour with disingenuous and faux high minded and conciliatory posts like yours.

A 102:19 comma:sentence ratio is honestly one of the most impressive that I've seen in my posting career

[Edouard]

.....

Edited July 19, 2022 by Edouard

[jnewt]

1 hour ago, Patine said:

Read original texts from the Great Awakenings, "A Day in the Life," (an obscure Italian novel whose translation I read in high school that doesn't even have an English wiki page about it, it would seem), or, "Finnegan's Wake," - or anything at all, fiction or, "theological," by L. Ron Hubbard. Or the very original rules set of Dungeons & Dragons ever published by TSR in 1971. Don't give me a blue ribbon yet! 😛 

 

[jnewt]

21 minutes ago, Patine said:

May I have a text analog transcript, please? 😛

[Edouard]

.....

Edited July 19, 2022 by Edouard

[Edouard]

......

Edited July 19, 2022 by Edouard

[Edouard]

Marine le Pen backflips on the death penalty.

Initially willing to submit it to referendum, she now says that she doesn't want and uses the unconstitutionnality argument (which is true, death penalty is prohibited in the French Constitution).

However several of her others referendums are also threatened of unconstitutionnality and she doesn't seem to care about these, so my guess is that she wants to moderate her position on it to attract more right-wingers.

[jvikings1]

On 4/15/2022 at 5:34 PM, Edouard said:

Marine le Pen backflips on the death penalty.

Initially willing to submit it to referendum, she now says that she doesn't want and uses the unconstitutionnality argument (which is true, death penalty is prohibited in the French Constitution).

However several of her others referendums are also threatened of unconstitutionnality and she doesn't seem to care about these, so my guess is that she wants to moderate her position on it to attract more right-wingers.

When is the debate? I have heard from a variety of sources that it will likely be the thing that significantly impacts the results of the election.

[Edouard]

On 4/17/2022 at 12:40 PM, jvikings1 said:

When is the debate? I have heard from a variety of sources that it will likely be the thing that significantly impacts the results of the election.

It's in 3 days on April 20th 3 PM eastern time

I guess that France 24 will broadcast an english version in direct.

Traditionnaly more than 16 millions of french follow the debate up to 20 millions so at least half of voters.

Edited July 19, 2022 by Edouard

[Edouard]

The french runoff debate between Marine le Pen and Emmanuel Macron will be broadcasted in direct english translation in 15 minutes here : 

 

[Edouard]

Post debate poll of who won the debate

[Entrecampos]

My prediction is 56.9% Macron and 43.1% Le Pen. Tomorrow I will show my final.

[Timur]

17 hours ago, Edouard said:

Post debate poll of who won the debate

That Le Pen picture...

[Hestia]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say there's a bit of a poll miscalculation in favor of Macron again. 58.6-41.4. 

[Edouard]

On 4/21/2022 at 12:16 PM, Patine said:

Looking at the party platforms and policy centres, this seems a bit reminiscent (roughly speaking) of the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election, just the candidate genders flipped, and not as old. And since the 2016 U.S. Presidential Elections was one of the very worst, all around, in U.S. history, I am a bit dubious. But I fully understand the analogy may not end up carrying that far - which would be a mercy.

The debate this year was much better than the one from 5 years ago

Here is a poll about who convinced who during the debate by electorate

 

Edited July 19, 2022 by Edouard

[Entrecampos]

On 4/21/2022 at 9:58 AM, Entrecampos said:

My prediction is 56.9% Macron and 43.1% Le Pen. Tomorrow I will show my final.

My final is 57.0% Macron and 43.0% le Pen. 

[Edouard]

My bet is Macron 59% but I am unsure

Result in 13 minutes.

 

 

 

Edited July 19, 2022 by Edouard

[jvikings1]

Just a blind guess, I am going to say 57-43 for Macron. Obviously not a complete win for Le Pen. But I'd say it is a strategic win. National Rally seems to be the main party on the "right" at this point. 2027 will be interesting.

[Edouard]

On 4/24/2022 at 1:47 PM, Edouard said:

 

My bet is Macron 59% but I am unsure

 

 So close

Edited July 19, 2022 by Edouard

[Hestia]

On 4/21/2022 at 11:01 AM, Hestia said:

I'm going to go out on a limb and say there's a bit of a poll miscalculation in favor of Macron again. 58.6-41.4. 

Hey pretty close 😛