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Speaker vote going to 2nd ballot for 2nd time in 100 years.


Rezi

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First Ballot:

  • Hakeem Jeffries (D) - 212
  • Jim Jordan (R) - 200
  • Steve Scalise (R) - 7
  • Kevin McCarthy (R) - 6
  • Lee Zeldin (R) - 3
  • Tom Cole (R) - 1
  • Tom Emmer (R) - 1
  • Mike Garcia (R) - 1
  • Thomas Massie (R) - 1

1 absence, that being R Gus Bilirakis

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14 minutes ago, Rezi said:

First Ballot:

  • Hakeem Jeffries (D) - 212
  • Jim Jordan (R) - 200
  • Steve Scalise (R) - 7
  • Kevin McCarthy (R) - 6
  • Lee Zeldin (R) - 3
  • Tom Cole (R) - 1
  • Tom Emmer (R) - 1
  • Mike Garcia (R) - 1
  • Thomas Massie (R) - 1

1 absence, that being R Gus Bilirakis

I think the GOP had their token resistance. I see the following situations:

66% chance they get enough support for Jordan to win it. 

30% chance they start rallying around an alternate

4% chance Democrats reach an agreement for a moderate. 

I think this could go only 2 ballots. I'll be surprised if this goes to double digit ballots. 

That said, I thought Jordan was going to have the votes on this ballot, lest they wouldn't have even voted. 

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7 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I think the GOP had their token resistance. I see the following situations:

66% chance they get enough support for Jordan to win it. 

30% chance they start rallying around an alternate

4% chance Democrats reach an agreement for a moderate. 

I think this could go only 2 ballots. I'll be surprised if this goes to double digit ballots. 

That said, I thought Jordan was going to have the votes on this ballot, lest they wouldn't have even voted. 

Sounds like Jordan is going to both gain and lose some votes on a second ballot. Cant say for the future but I don’t see much improvement for him today.

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Second Ballot:

  • Hakeem Jeffries (D) - 212
  • Jim Jordan (R) - 199 (-1)
  • Steve Scalise (R) - 7
  • Kevin McCarthy (R) - 5 (-1)
  • Lee Zeldin (R) - 3
  • Tom Emmer (R) - 1
  • Mike Garcia (R) - 1
  • John Boehner (R) - 1 (+1)
  • Byron Donalds (R) - 1 (+1)
  • Kay Granger (R) - 1 (+1)
  • Candice Miller (R) - 1 (+1)
  • Bruce Westerman (R) - 1 (+1)
  • Tom Cole (R) - 0 (-1)
  • Thomas Massie (R) - 0 (-1)

Bilirakis came back from his absence and voted for Jordan.

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36 minutes ago, Pius XIII said:

I would really like to know who thought voting for John Boehner was a good idea… at this point does anyone else thing that Patrick McHenry will be voted in because he is already the acting speaker?

Boehner got a vote from Pennsylvania's Mike Kelly. IIRC it actually got cheers from some Dems.

 

 

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I'm kind of wondering what happens if the Dems all agree to nominate someone like John Kasich, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Jeff Flake, Liz Cheney, Mitt Romney, Larry Hogan, or Charlie Baker. Would enough GOPers join in to settled the race? 

The issue is that Gaetz could keep prompting a removal vote. 

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2 hours ago, vcczar said:

I'm kind of wondering what happens if the Dems all agree to nominate someone like John Kasich, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Jeff Flake, Liz Cheney, Mitt Romney, Larry Hogan, or Charlie Baker. Would enough GOPers join in to settled the race? 

The issue is that Gaetz could keep prompting a removal vote. 

From what I've heard, the Dems will most likely only help elect a GOP Speaker if the deal includes changes to the House rules that give them more power- presumably things like the ability to schedule floor votes rather than leaving that power with just the Speaker.  If they were able to work out such a deal, I'm sure it would also involve changing the rules to increase the threshold required for a motion to vacate.  As for the likelihood of enough Republicans signing on to that sort of deal, I think it's an eventual possibility, but it's going to take a lot more failed ballots for them to get there.

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17 hours ago, vcczar said:

I'm kind of wondering what happens if the Dems all agree to nominate someone like John Kasich, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Jeff Flake, Liz Cheney, Mitt Romney, Larry Hogan, or Charlie Baker. Would enough GOPers join in to settled the race? 

The issue is that Gaetz could keep prompting a removal vote. 

A removal vote is only successful if the Democrats vote for it.

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Third Ballot:

  • Hakeem Jeffries (D) - 210 (-2)
  • Jim Jordan (R) - 194 (-5)
  • Steve Scalise (R) - 8 (+1)
  • Patrick McHenry (R) - 6 (+6)
  • Lee Zeldin (R) - 4 (+1)
  • Kevin McCarthy - 2 (-3)
  • Tom Emmer - 1
  • Mike Garcia -1
  • Bruce Westerman - 1.

4 Absences. Brian FItzpatrick, Tom Kean, and Marc Molinaro make up the new defects.

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Jim Jordan loses a secret ballot at the GOP Conference, which means that he is no longer Speaker-Designate. They're going to break for the weekend and vote for a new Speaker-Designate sometime next week.

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