2024 Democratic Primary Poll

[vcczar]

New poll

[ShortKing]

Having supported Romney, Clinton, and Biden (glad one of those worked out, but definitely not the one I would have picked lol), I probably am not an authority on what would excite the Democratic base, but I think Amy's smart and her Senate office can point to a lot of good work she's done, and I think she'd be a pretty good nominee for 2024.

[vcczar]

At this point, I can't see Biden being the best pick, even if he has the incumbency. This could change. 

I prefer Sanders, but he's too old. I think Warren is too old too, but she's a tad younger, so I go with her. 

In the young bracket, I want to choose Buttigieg, but I don't think he wins GA, NC, and may even have a hard time with PA, while I see Abrams getting GA, NC, PA, and definitely holding MI. Buttigieg is known for getting almost no support among black voters, which is kind of his weakness he needs to work on. I'm probably most ideologically similar to AOC, but I think she's too verbally hostile and too much of a lightning rod, much more so than even Abrams. 

Although, I support Warren. I think Abrams is probably the best for both base and the general. I think she can win and hold some states that the others can't. She'll be weakest in WI, NH, AZ, and NV -- possibly losing all of these, but I think she can win without those. 

[Pringles]

Just now, ShortKing said:

Having supported Romney, Clinton, and Biden (glad one of those worked out, but definitely not the one I would have picked lol), I probably am not an authority on what would excite the Democratic base, but I think Amy's smart and her Senate office can point to a lot of good work she's done, and I think she'd be a pretty good nominee for 2024.

I only selected Biden because he has the incumbency advantage on those questions. But yeah, I agree. Next in line is Klobuchar.

 

[ShortKing]

1 minute ago, vcczar said:

At this point, I can't see Biden being the best pick, even if he has the incumbency. This could change. 

I prefer Sanders, but he's too old. I think Warren is too old too, but she's a tad younger, so I go with her. 

In the young bracket, I want to choose Buttigieg, but I don't think he wins GA, NC, and may even have a hard time with PA, while I see Abrams getting GA, NC, PA, and definitely holding MI. Buttigieg is known for getting almost no support among black voters, which is kind of his weakness he needs to work on. I'm probably most ideologically similar to AOC, but I think she's too verbally hostile and too much of a lightning rod, much more so than even Abrams. 

Although, I support Warren. I think Abrams is probably the best for both base and the general. I think she can win and hold some states that the others can't. She'll be weakest in WI, NH, AZ, and NV -- possibly losing all of these, but I think she can win without those. 

I suppose we'll see how 2022 goes, but the Abrams buzz never made much sense to me. She ran a fine campaign, but most people don't get floated for VP or even as a good Presidential nominee for almost winning a statewide race. Beto did, and tried, and I think it's fair to say it didn't work out great for him. To me, the fact that Beto got talked about as a serious contender and that Abrams is getting talked about as a future contender for the White House says less about their personal strengths and more about the lack of a solid Democratic bench. Could Abrams win Georgia in 2024? Sure, I suppose it's possible but like, she hasn't won it yet, so I personally don't think she's favored to carry it in a presidential contest. 

[vcczar]

1 minute ago, ShortKing said:

Having supported Romney, Clinton, and Biden (glad one of those worked out, but definitely not the one I would have picked lol), I probably am not an authority on what would excite the Democratic base, but I think Amy's smart and her Senate office can point to a lot of good work she's done, and I think she'd be a pretty good nominee for 2024.

I think she could do well in a general, but she won't excite the base at all. She'd be worse than Biden in this regard.

[ShortKing]

6 minutes ago, Pringles said:

I only selected Biden because he has the incumbency advantage on those questions. But yeah, I agree. Next in line is Klobuchar.

 

I like Amy, but I have trouble imagining any feasible set of circumstances where she ends up getting the nomination. If it's not Biden, I imagine it's Harris or Buttigieg, and I don't think that goes well for anyone.

[Pringles]

2 minutes ago, ShortKing said:

I like Amy, but I have trouble imagining any feasible set of circumstances where she ends up getting the nomination. If it's not Biden, I imagine it's Harris or Buttigieg, and I don't think that goes well for anyone.

Yep. Imo Amy is the only candidate of those 4 (Harris, Biden, Amy, Pete) I like, but all of them have something big holding them back from either getting the nomination, or succeeding in a General. 

[Timur]

Honestly when it comes to enthusing the base and beating Trump, Michelle Obama would do the job.

[Rezi]

I like Klobuchar a lot, but I didn't pick her because I think she'd turn off lots of voters, and tbh I think she'd be better as Senate Majority Whip or Majority Leader instead.

[Pringles]

Gonna enjoy this Joe Manchin lead while it lasts. 😛 

[Rezi]

Also tbh I only picked Buttigieg because Sanders and Warren are too old, and the other candidates either I don't like or shouldn't run for whatever reason. If I had my handpick of candidates I would prefer Jared Polis, Ro Khanna, or maybe someone like John Fetterman if he can win this year.

[ShortKing]

Just now, Rezi said:

Also tbh I only picked Buttigieg because Sanders and Warren are too old, and the other candidates either I don't like or shouldn't run for whatever reason. If I had my handpick of candidates I would prefer Jared Polis, Ro Khanna, or maybe someone like John Fetterman if he can win this year.

I like Jared Polis, I'm not a personal fan of Gretchen Whitmer, but if she wins reelection this year, one imagines she'd start getting some presidential buzz. I like Roy Cooper and I know some folks talk about Gavin Newsom for President too, and I think they'd be fine nominees, I just think if any Governor emerges with a real chance at winning the Democratic primaries, it'll be Stacey Abrams and Gretchen Whitmer, and Whitmer possibly only if Abrams loses. 

[Rezi]

Just now, ShortKing said:

I like Jared Polis, I'm not a personal fan of Gretchen Whitmer, but if she wins reelection this year, one imagines she'd start getting some presidential buzz. I like Roy Cooper and I know some folks talk about Gavin Newsom for President too, and I think they'd be fine nominees, I just think if any Governor emerges with a real chance at winning the Democratic primaries, it'll be Stacey Abrams and Gretchen Whitmer, and Whitmer possibly only if Abrams loses. 

Roy Cooper is another good one! I'd like to see him or Andy Beshear on the Vice Presidential ticket with a more progressive nominee.

[MrPotatoTed]

6 hours ago, ShortKing said:

Having supported Romney, Clinton, and Biden (glad one of those worked out, but definitely not the one I would have picked lol), I probably am not an authority on what would excite the Democratic base, but I think Amy's smart and her Senate office can point to a lot of good work she's done, and I think she'd be a pretty good nominee for 2024.

I can’t stand Amy.  She might be my least favorite Democrat of my lifetime.

But I would still take her over anybody likely to lead the Republican ticket in 2024.

[MrPotatoTed]

6 hours ago, vcczar said:

At this point, I can't see Biden being the best pick, even if he has the incumbency. This could change. 

I prefer Sanders, but he's too old. I think Warren is too old too, but she's a tad younger, so I go with her. 

In the young bracket, I want to choose Buttigieg, but I don't think he wins GA, NC, and may even have a hard time with PA, while I see Abrams getting GA, NC, PA, and definitely holding MI. Buttigieg is known for getting almost no support among black voters, which is kind of his weakness he needs to work on. I'm probably most ideologically similar to AOC, but I think she's too verbally hostile and too much of a lightning rod, much more so than even Abrams. 

Although, I support Warren. I think Abrams is probably the best for both base and the general. I think she can win and hold some states that the others can't. She'll be weakest in WI, NH, AZ, and NV -- possibly losing all of these, but I think she can win without those. 

In 2020, I wanted Buttigieg-Booker.

Maybe 2024 is Buttigieg-Abrams.

[vcczar]

Just now, MrPotatoTed said:

In 2020, I wanted Buttigieg-Booker.

Maybe 2024 is Buttigieg-Abrams.

That’s they only way Buttigieg wins I think. 

[MrPotatoTed]

21 minutes ago, vcczar said:

That’s they only way Buttigieg wins I think. 

As for whether he can win certain states...I mean, he was an unknown mayor with an impossible name, and he was gay to boot.  
 

Nobody foresaw him winning Iowa.

[MrPotatoTed]

6 hours ago, Timur said:

Honestly when it comes to enthusing the base and beating Trump, Michelle Obama would do the job.

Hard to say.  Works really well on paper.  But same argument was supposed to put Hillary in the White House too.

Is Michelle more likable?  Probably!  But part of her likability is that she does not want the Presidency.

 

[MrPotatoTed]

1 minute ago, Patine said:

Huckabee was similar for the Republicans in 2008 (except for not being gay - at least openly and known).

Preacher dude wins in Iowa?  That was pretty well within the bounds of predictability.  Plus he’d been Governor of a nearby state.

[Hestia]

29 minutes ago, MrPotatoTed said:

Preacher dude wins in Iowa?  That was pretty well within the bounds of predictability.  Plus he’d been Governor of a nearby state.

1 - being an Iowan, ouch. But true.

2 - Arkansas isn't really nearby for here lol.

[Edouard]

Hard question

Every major democrats have a flaw

I would say that the 2 best democrats in the pick (to be attractive to republicans and independent) are probably Amy Klobuchar and Pete Buttigieg

Amy is a solid senator, but she might sound a bit "too cold" to energize the base

Pete for himself has a likeable personnality, is well articulated and can reasonnate a lot with suburbans voters and independent which makes him a terribly good candidate, however what might energize democrats the most (making history for having the first homosexual president) could also be his weakeness with some groups of traditionnal voters, even on the democratic side, and particulary in the South.

Edited March 30, 2022 by Edouard

[MrPotatoTed]

35 minutes ago, Patine said:

The comparison I mean is, people were watching Giuliani, McCain, Romney, Thompson, and such more carefully and expectantly. Also, like Buttigieg, Huckabee didn't carry that much steam after (though Buttigieg went further on his tracks) which seems uncommon for someone who clinches Iowa.

I mean, Buttigieg took second place in New Hampshire.  I don’t know how much higher anyone expected him to go, as NH historically almost never goes with whoever won in Iowa.

But yes, didn’t finish as well in NV and SC.  Room for improvement! Ha.

One name I think is missing is Julian Castro.  I was very impressed by him in the debates, I tend to gravitate to the “adult in the room”, and he and Pete were the two that really gave me that vibe.  Serious, informed, passionate.

 

He didn’t do well in the polls, presumably because it was so crowded, and I was disappointed to not see him in Biden’s cabinet.  If it were up to me, he’d have been Attorney General.  But endorsing Warren may have shot him self in the foot there.

[MrPotatoTed]

13 minutes ago, Edouard said:

Hard question

Every major democrats have a flaw

I would say that the 2 best democrats in the pick (to be attractive to republicans and independent) are probably Amy Klobuchar and Pete Buttigieg

Amy is a solid senator, but she might sound a bit "too cold" to energize the base

Pete for himself has a likeable personnality, is well articulated and can reasonnate a lot with suburbans voters and independent which makes him a terribly good candidate, however what might energize democrats the most (making history for having the first homosexual president) could also be his weakeness with some groups of traditionnal voters, even on the democratic side, and particulary in the South.

Eh, same was said about how people would never vote for Barack.

Pete is a War Veteran and is a moderate.  He’s not going to bring in the progressive/far left stuff that traditional voters fear.

[ShortKing]

6 minutes ago, MrPotatoTed said:

Eh, same was said about how people would never vote for Barack.

Pete is a War Veteran and is a moderate.  He’s not going to bring in the progressive/far left stuff that traditional voters fear.

Agree, I think people may be underestimating Buttigieg. When he actually gets to visit communities for the unveiling of infrastructure projects made possible by the BIF, I think that'll help him build name ID in the communities that didn't get a chance to warm up to him in 2020. I still think he loses in 2024, personally, but he's not in a bad spot imo.