Geopolitical Forum Game Poll

[vcczar]

The game would start in 1993 as Clinton and Yeltsin announce the end of the Cold War and the European Union is formally created. The Yugoslav Wars are active. The USSR has just fragmented into different states. The Gulf War has just ended in Iraq. Tension in Israel-Palestine is on-going. China, and to a lesser degree, India are on the rise. Iran and Turkey are kind of at deciding points on how they want to move with US influence injected into the region. Etc etc etc. 

In the poll, the 2nd tier and 3rd tier powers are those that may or may not be included in the game. I may make it just 3 player, but it could be expanded to 8 players. Every player will have a list of goals, mostly conflicting with just about every power. 

The US has an obvious advantage, but it will mostly be on the defense since it starts as a hyperpower, so the game will pretty much always be the US's to lose, but it can lose. 

The game starts in 1993 and it will continue somewhat beyond the present. I haven't determined how turns are taken or how many movements are taken, but I think the following are the ways to influence a nation or region: 

• Export/Imports
• International Businesses
• Pipelines
• Military bases/occupation
• Maritime or land access
• Cultural, religious, or linguisitic similarities
• Foreign, military Aid, alliances
• Relations w/ a nation's enemies
• possibly other things

The following will determine how many influence points you get, depending on the type of influence:

• GDP
• Natural Resources
• Population
• Size of military/navy
• Control of the Ocean
• Size of alliance
• possibly other things

I'm not sure how many historical events I'll include or even how card-based this will be. It will have dice. 

The map will show only Poland, Belarus, Ukraine, Russia (some of it), Balkans, Turkey, the entire Middle East, and Central Asia, and Black Sea and Caspian area, Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Iran, Pakistan, India (part of it), and the western most part of China. There will be some off-map parts that would be on the board -- Washington DC area, Moscow area, New Delhi area, Beijing area, Brussels areas. I'll probably also include The Koreas/Japan, Taiwan, Indonesia, UK, and Antarctica as off-map places on the board because they may impact the game, but they may just be cards. Who knows. 

In short, I've still got some ways to go. 

If you are curious, Zbigniew Brzezinski's Grand Chessboard is the inspiration for this game, as it was for my 2012 version of this game, of which this game is deviating from for the most part. If you read that, you'll get an idea of what the goals will be for each nation. 

[Rodja]

4 minutes ago, vcczar said:

The game would start in 1993 as Clinton and Yeltsin announce the end of the Cold War and the European Union is formally created. The Yugoslav Wars are active. The USSR has just fragmented into different states. The Gulf War has just ended in Iraq. Tension in Israel-Palestine is on-going. China, and to a lesser degree, India are on the rise. Iran and Turkey are kind of at deciding points on how they want to move with US influence injected into the region. Etc etc etc. 

In the poll, the 2nd tier and 3rd tier powers are those that may or may not be included in the game. I may make it just 3 player, but it could be expanded to 8 players. Every player will have a list of goals, mostly conflicting with just about every power. 

The US has an obvious advantage, but it will mostly be on the defense since it starts as a hyperpower, so the game will pretty much always be the US's to lose, but it can lose. 

The game starts in 1993 and it will continue somewhat beyond the present. I haven't determined how turns are taken or how many movements are taken, but I think the following are the ways to influence a nation or region: 

• Export/Imports
• International Businesses
• Pipelines
• Military bases/occupation
• Maritime or land access
• Cultural, religious, or linguisitic similarities
• Foreign, military Aid, alliances
• Relations w/ a nation's enemies
• possibly other things

The following will determine how many influence points you get, depending on the type of influence:

• GDP
• Natural Resources
• Population
• Size of military/navy
• Control of the Ocean
• Size of alliance
• possibly other things

I'm not sure how many historical events I'll include or even how card-based this will be. It will have dice. 

The map will show only Poland, Belarus, Ukraine, Russia (some of it), Balkans, Turkey, the entire Middle East, and Central Asia, and Black Sea and Caspian area, Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Iran, Pakistan, India (part of it), and the western most part of China. There will be some off-map parts that would be on the board -- Washington DC area, Moscow area, New Delhi area, Beijing area, Brussels areas. I'll probably also include The Koreas/Japan, Taiwan, Indonesia, UK, and Antarctica as off-map places on the board because they may impact the game, but they may just be cards. Who knows. 

In short, I've still got some ways to go. 

If you are curious, Zbigniew Brzezinski's Grand Chessboard is the inspiration for this game, as it was for my 2012 version of this game, of which this game is deviating from for the most part. If you read that, you'll get an idea of what the goals will be for each nation. 

My mistake,i thought i should pick the one i would like the most in the poll.I am comfortable with all of them,since i really want to try this.

[Hestia]

Yeah I was going to note that the poll right now only lets you select one option. 🙂

[ShortKing]

I voted for the EU to suggest that I would be comfortable with that option or any above it, though I also would not object to India or Iran, just trying to work with the poll as currently constructed.

[Hestia]

I voted EU as it would be my first choice, but I'd also be fine with (in order)

US, India, Turkey, China, Russia, Iran would be my order after that.

[Pringles]

Turkey or the US would probably be my preferred. Iran and China as well. 

[Largo833]

I’d be up for trying this out, and I think my order of most to least preferred would be Iran, Turkey, India, China, EU, Russia, US.

[Rodja]

Most to least preferred

US,EU,China,Russia,Turkey,India,Iran

[WVProgressive]

In order of preference:

Iran, China, India, Russia, Turkey, USA, EU

[vcczar]

I'm just going to GM it this one time. After that, I'll have the rules, cards, and etc. left for anyone that wants to play the game in the future accessible for everyone. There's no timetable for when I'll have this ready. It's based more on time. The first draft might lead to some improbable situations, but we can curb that more to historical probability over time. 

[Euri]

China or EU could be fun, but I wouldn’t be opposed to any of them

Edited October 24, 2023 by Euri

[The Blood]

Turkey, Turkey, Turkey, Turkey, Turkey, Turkey, in order from least to greatest preference. 

[ConservativeElector2]

All of them are fine. My order: US, EU, China, Russia, India, Iran, Turkey

[Blockmon]

I am fine with all but india would be my least

[vcczar]

So I’m going to expand the map range on this game to include all of Northern Africa and include East Africa down to Somalia and Ethiopia. Sudan included. Eastern Europe and Baltics and Finland included. The arctic is included. SE Asia including Indonesia. East Asia including the Koreas and Mongolia. 

 

[vcczar]

So I have the list of Pipeline cards. This will complicate movements because the originator of a pipeline has the option of shutting it off: 

Druzhba Pipeline	Russia	EU	1964
Kirkuk-Ceyhan Pipeline	Iraq	Turkey	1970
Central Asia-Center Gas Pipeline	Turkmenistan	Russia	1975
Trans-Mediterranean Pipeline	Algeria	EU	1983
Urenhoy--Uzhhorod Pipeline	Russia	Russia	1984
Maghreb-Europe Gas Pipeline	Algeria	EU	1996
Korpeje-Kordkuy	Turkmenistan	Iran	1997
Yamal-Europe Pipeline	Russia	EU	1997
Caspian Pipeline	Kazakhstan	Russia	2001
Tabriz-Ankara Pipeline	Iran	Turkey	2001
Greenstream Pipeline	Libya	EU	2004
Blue Stream	Russia	Turkey	2005
Kazakhstan-China Oil Pipeline	Kazakhstan	China	2006
Baku-Ceyhan Pipeline	Azerbaijan	Turkey	2006
Baku-Novorossiysk Pipeline	Azerbaijan	Russia	2006
Iran-Armenia gas pipeline	Iran	Iran	2006
South Caucasus Pipeline	Azerbaijan	Turkey	2006
Turkey-Greece gas pipeline	Turkey	EU	2007
Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline	Turkmenistan	China	2009
ESPO Pipeline	Russia	China	2011
Medgas Pipeline	Algeria	EU	2011
Nord Stream 1	Russia	EU	2011
Sino-Myanmar Pipeline	Myanmar	China	2013
Trans Adriatic Pipeline	Turkey	EU	2020
Afghanistan Oil Pipeline	Turkmenistan	India	n/a
Gwadar-Kashgar Pipeline	Pakistan	China	n/a
Altai Gas Pipeline	Russia	China	n/a
Arab Gas Pipeline Extension	Egypt	Turkey	n/a
Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline	Iran	Iran	n/a
Turkmenistan-India Pipeline	Turkmenistan	India	n/a
GALSI Pipeline	Algeria	EU	n/a
Trans-Anatolian gas Pipeline	Azerbaijan	Turkey	n/a
White Stream	Georgia	EU	n/a
Qatar-Turkey Pipeline	Qatar	Turkey	n/a
South Stream	Russia	EU	n/a
Nabucco Pipeline	Turkey	EU	n/a
Nord Stream 2	Russia	EU	n/a

[vcczar]

Turkey and Russia are going to have an unusual twist, which is probably worse for Turkey. Turkey cannot have perfect relations with the EU, lest they get absorbed by it. So they have to remain somewhat antagonistic. Similarly, Russia can't either, although it has more steps to go through until it is vulnerable.

The EU has the potential to be the most powerful entity, but it has to have a ton of things go the right way, and it's probably the most difficult one to manage. 

Iran is probably the most isolated, while India starts at arguably the great disadvantage. I'm adding Japan, who being bound by the US and being next to China, is also at a disadvantage. 

Russia has a unique situation in that it collapses and then has to rebuild. 

China is handicapped by its own government but is a growing power. 

The US has the advantage of a massive head start, but then it hast to hold on to everything. The US is the only outsider on the map, so it can potentially be completely shut out of the game, if things go catastrophically bad. 

Every nation can be knocked out of the game:

• US is knocked out of Eurasia
• EU breaks up, which requires France or Germany not being part of the EU. 
• Turkey is either absorbed by the EU or Kurdistan independence makes it a minor power
• Iran breaks up along ethnic groups--Kurds, Azeris, Balochs, Persians
• China loses Tibet, Xinjiang, Hong Kong, and fragments in the core of China
• Japan becomes minor if Korea reunifies and China take Taiwan
• India becomes minor if Hindus and Muslims create a split
• Russia is absorbed by EU or Russia fragments itself out of Central Asia, Caspian, and loses Karelia. I may add that the US has to create more icebreakers than Russia to lock them out of the Arctic. 

In most cases, no one is going to knocked out. 

There's also Super victories:

• For US I haven't determined what that will be.
• For EU, it's EU-ing all the way to Armenia and Georgia, Turkey, and Russia, and regaining UK. 
• For Turkey, I'm not quite sure yet. Possibly uniting Turkic-speaking nations somehow. 
• For Iran, I'm not sure yet. Possibly absorbing Shia Iraq and something else.
• For China,it's getting Taiwan, seeing a unified Communist Korea, and controlling access to the China Sea (The US controls all the oceans). Basically, China has to shut the US out of East Asia. 
• For Japan, it's getting back their military, keeping Korea divided, keeping China out of Taiwan, free Hong Kong,and possibly something else. 
• For India, it may involve expanding into Pakistan and Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka, but I'm not sure yet. At the least, they'll have to diminish Pakistan in some way and out-produce China. 
• Russia just wants to restore the USSR (but not necessarily Communism) and get more access to the Caspian. To them an expanded NATO or Ukraine as part of the EU is bad for them. 

Similar to Twilight Struggle, there will be something similar to a DEFCOM meter, but it will be a WWIII meter. If relations with any two nations get in the last spot, then it's WWIII and the game ends. Those that trigger it cannot win, and the remaining high scorer is the victor. 

Scoring will go decade to decade. Game will end in 2030 for now. 

[vcczar]

I've still been working on this. Currently look at events between the US and every country that will be on the map. After the US, I'll have to do this with all the other playable countries and all other nations on the map. After that, I need to go through every nation's post-Cold War history, exports/imports, military strengths, and anything else that will establish a value. If anyone is interested in helping out in some way (likely spreadsheet work), let me know. 

[vcczar]

Afghanistan is an interesting locale for this game: From 1979-2023, they're at war. The game will start with the Russians in the middle of a war in Afghanistan. Historically, this results in three successive civil wars, and then the US invasion, and then the Taliban insurgency. 

The US has the option of being a proxy power, when not being a principle. Iran, China, and Russia can aid the US or oppose them as a proxy. The EU and India can occasionally get involved. Turkey and Japan can't get involved in these. 

Afghanistan can have several forms of government. The oddest possibility is a Communist Afghanistan. 

Nations, if they have an option to engage and are not a required principle, may have the option to be an ally, a proxy for or against a principle. A nation like Iran might want to aid the US to improve relations or to benefit from a certain victory or they may want to make it more difficult for the US by not engaging at alll or proxying the other side. The latter would decrease relations, so it can be risky. 

I've now created the regions of Afghanistan and key resources that the major powers will want to access, some of which can be part of other nations. 

Tajik Afghanistan	Default Afghanistan	Region	Can join Tajikistan
Pashtun Afghanistan	Default Afghanistan	Region	Must be independent
Baloch Afghanistan	Default Afghanistan	Region	Can join Balochistan
Uzbek Afghanistan	Default Afghanistan	Region	Can join Uzbekistan
Turkmen Afghanistan	Default Afghanistan	Region	Can join Turkmenistan
Afghan Saffron		Leads Pashtun Afghanistan
Afghan Opium		Leads in Baloch Afghanistan
Afghan Lithium		Leads in Pashtun Afghanistan
Afghan Natural Gas		Leads in Tajik Afghanistan
Afghan Oil I		Leads in Uzbek Afghanistan
Afghan Oil II		Leads in Turkmen Afghanistan
Afghan Uranium		Leads in Baloch Afghanistan

[Hestia]

13 hours ago, vcczar said:

I've still been working on this. Currently look at events between the US and every country that will be on the map. After the US, I'll have to do this with all the other playable countries and all other nations on the map. After that, I need to go through every nation's post-Cold War history, exports/imports, military strengths, and anything else that will establish a value. If anyone is interested in helping out in some way (likely spreadsheet work), let me know. 

I could maybe help out with some of the grunt work with the exports/imports, military strengths, etc. - if you have a uniform way that you want them to be done or a website to base the decisions off of, feel free to let me know either in a PM or something that I can work with. I usually have some free time at work Mon/Tues/Weds. 

[vcczar]

8 hours ago, Hestia said:

I could maybe help out with some of the grunt work with the exports/imports, military strengths, etc. - if you have a uniform way that you want them to be done or a website to base the decisions off of, feel free to let me know either in a PM or something that I can work with. I usually have some free time at work Mon/Tues/Weds. 

What would be helpful is if you could rank the US, Russia, China, Japan, Iran, Turkey, India, and EU in the following categories:

• GDP per capita (or other way to capture a nations wealth, and ability to spend on foreign affairs. Maybe foreign affair + defense budget?)
• Total exports
• Total imports
• Size of military
• Size of navy (apart from rest of military)
• Population 

Then, if possible, a ranking of these in the 1990s vs today. 

[Hestia]

8 hours ago, vcczar said:

What would be helpful is if you could rank the US, Russia, China, Japan, Iran, Turkey, India, and EU in the following categories:

• GDP per capita (or other way to capture a nations wealth, and ability to spend on foreign affairs. Maybe foreign affair + defense budget?)
• Total exports
• Total imports
• Size of military
• Size of navy (apart from rest of military)
• Population 

Then, if possible, a ranking of these in the 1990s vs today. 

Sent you what I could find. I also included power ranking for militaries to try to take in to account air forces, but feel free to do with the info what you will. Some things I couldn't find 1993 info on (size of navy in particular), but I made a best guess and noted that on the sheet. 

[vcczar]

39 minutes ago, Hestia said:

Sent you what I could find. I also included power ranking for militaries to try to take in to account air forces, but feel free to do with the info what you will. Some things I couldn't find 1993 info on (size of navy in particular), but I made a best guess and noted that on the sheet. 

Excellent work!

[vcczar]

Here are the various Armenian-related cards:

Republic of Armenia

Soviet Armenia

Armenian Independence

Refuse to Recognize Armenian Genocide

Armenian Machines

Armenian Electronics

Armenian Chemicals

Karabakh Movement

1st Nagorno-Karabakh War

2nd Nagorno-Karabakh War

Anti-Azeri Violence in Armenia

Armenian Revolution

[vcczar]

@Hestia If you have more time, it would be great if you can figure out how many foreign bases the 8 primary nations have had from 1990s-present and where they are located.

For instance, I know the US has one in Germany (EU) and Japan, and likely some in the Middle East, Cuba, of course, but Cuba isn't on our map. 

I'm sure Russia and China may have foreign bases, but I'm not sure if the other primary nations do.