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Quickshot 2016 - Republican Primary


The Blood

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2016 Utah Republican Caucus Results:

 

Total Caucusgoers: 195,154

 

Ted Cruz: 75,116 votes - 38.49% - 20 delegates

 

Jeb! Bush: 49,628 votes - 25.43% - 13 delegates

 

Lindsey Graham: 30,873 votes - 15.82% - 7 delegates

 

Donald Trump: 23,691 votes - 12.14%

 

Ben Carson: 15,846 votes - 8.12%

 

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Republican State of the Race - March 23rd, 2016

Total Votes: 22,315,993 votes

Delegates needed to win: 1,237

 

Ted Cruz: 6,151,144 votes - 27.56% - 564 delegates - 45.59% towards majority

 

Donald Trump: 5,598,623 votes - 25.09% - 418 delegates - 33.79% towards majority

 

Jeb! Bush: 3,688,791 votes - 16.53% - 319 delegates - 25.79% towards majority

 

Ben Carson: 3,743,549 votes - 16.78% - 180 delegates - 14.55% towards majority

 

Lindsay Graham: 2,159,742 votes - 9.68% - 27 delegates - 2.75% towards majority

 

Carly Fiorina(suspended): 926,213 votes - 4.15% - 21 delegates - 1.70% towards majority

 

Chris Christie(suspended): 47,831 votes - 0.21% - 4 delegates - 0.32% towards majority

 

 

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TWO TURNS UNTIL WISCONSIN!

Note: National swings are moderated, we're at a point where a massive portion of voters have cast their ballots, and I want to reflect that in the polls, even if some voters do change their mind after voting.

 

National GOP Presidential Primary Polling - March 23rd, 2016:

Donald Trump: 26%(+5)

 

Ted Cruz: 23%(-5)

 

Jeb! Bush: 20%(-2)

 

 Ben Carson: 17%(-1)

 

Lindsey Graham: 14%(+3)

 

 

Wisconsin GOP Presidential Primary Polling - March 23rd, 2016:

Ted Cruz: 28%

 

Donald Trump: 21%

 

Ben Carson: 19%

 

Jeb! Bush: 17%

 

Lindsey Graham: 15%

 

 

Wyoming GOP Presidential Caucus Polling - March 23rd, 2016:

Ted Cruz: 54%

 

Ben Carson: 20%

 

Lindsey Graham: 11%

 

Jeb! Bush: 9%

 

Donald Trump: 6%(Yes, Trump did really poorly IRL)

 

 

 New York GOP Presidential Primary Polling - March 23rd, 2016: 

Donald Trump: 38%

 

Jeb! Bush: 26%

 

Ben Carson: 14%

 

Lindsey Graham: 12%

 

Ted Cruz: 10%

 

 

Edited by The Blood
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LCR (League of Classical Republicans) Megapost. @Rezi @Pringles @Kitten

  • In Wisconsin, Jeb! Bush and Ben Carson will tell their voters to support Lindsey Graham.
  • In Wyoming, Jeb! Bush and Lindsey Graham will tell their voters to support Ben Carson.
  • In New York, Lindsey Graham and Ben Carson will tell their voters to support Jeb! Bush.
Edited by Rezi
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1.Ted Cruz will campaign in Wisconsin. He will visit a cheese factory and try some cheese.

2.Ted Cruz will campaign in Wyoming. He will visit Buffalo ranches.

3.Ted Cruz will campaign in New York. He will seek the endorsement of the New York Conservative Party.

Edited by Timur
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On 6/7/2022 at 1:30 AM, Rezi said:

LCR (League of Classical Republicans) Megapost. @Rezi @Pringles @Kitten

  • In Wisconsin, Jeb! Bush and Ben Carson will tell their voters to support Lindsey Graham.
  • In Wyoming, Jeb! Bush and Lindsey Graham will tell their voters to support Ben Carson.
  • In New York, Lindsey Graham and Ben Carson will tell their voters to support Jeb! Bush.

(Changing things up here to make sure each LCR member only has one event they can gain or lose momentum from for these endorsements - each roll's momentum goes to the candidate being endorsed for that roll)

Wisconsin: 3. Many Wisconsin Jebites and Carsonites are left dumbfounded by the request of their candidates that they back Lindsey Graham, given his status at the back of the pack and failure to participate in the LCR's electoral alliance until now. While a portion of Ben and Jeb!'s supporters will move to Graham, the majority stand by their candidates.

 

Wyoming: 6. In Wyoming the LCR alliance works reasonably well, with over a majority of Jeb! and Graham's supporters accepting their duty and backing Ben Carson. 

 

New York: 6. Similar to in Wyoming, in New York a majority and more of Carson and Graham's supporters move to back Jeb!, though a significant portion of both bases refuse to leave their candidates behind.

On 6/9/2022 at 5:15 PM, Kitten said:

Lindsey will campaign in Wisconsin. He meets voters on the ground and has lunch with Governor Scott Walker

Lindsey will meet with Ron Johnson and campaign all through Wisconsin.

Scott Walker: 10! The lunch is wonderful, and Scott Walker endorses Graham's campaign! Lindsey sees a notable influx of support from voters after this development.

 

Ron Johnson: 5. Ron Johnson isn't committed to Graham's campaign yet, saying he'd rather "wait and see" if he wants to endorse a candidate. 

 

Overall + Endorsement Roll: +3. Graham has a reasonably successful week, with a flow of support from Wisconsinites after Scott Walker's endorsement and the LCR alliance kicking in, though the alliance is notably weak in the state.

On 6/9/2022 at 11:37 PM, Timur said:

1.Ted Cruz will campaign in Wisconsin. He will visit a cheese factory and try some cheese.

2.Ted Cruz will campaign in Wyoming. He will visit Buffalo ranches.

3.Ted Cruz will campaign in New York. He will seek the endorsement of the New York Conservative Party.

Wisconsin: 6. The cheese is alright, and Wisconsinites are generally receptive to Ted's campaign.

 

Wyoming: 5. Ted does fine in Wyoming, though no one's especially impressed by his visit to the state.

 

NYCP: 8. The New York Conservative Party will endorse, providing Ted a substantive boost as his campaign picks up surprising steam in New York.

 

Overall: +4. Ted has a solid week as his campaign carries forward, with a mostly successful tour of all three upcoming states and a notable endorsement in New York.

On 6/12/2022 at 11:12 AM, Pringles said:

Carson campaigns in Wyoming.

Carly Fiorina, Larry Elder, and Ben hold a rally in California.

Wyoming: 10! Carson takes Wyoming by storm, with Republicans in the state rallying to his campaign as Ben's charisma and charm shine through.

 

California: 3. Carson's California blues continue, as the rally has poor turnout, and Larry Elder goes off on a tangent about driver's licenses at the event.

 

Overall + Endorsement Roll: +4. Despite his continued struggles in California, Ben Carson's campaign gathers modest momentum this week, with a major success in Wyoming and an acceptably successful kick-in of the LCR alliance in the state.

On 6/12/2022 at 1:51 PM, Rezi said:

Jeb! Bush tries to get the endorsement of former Governor George Pataki

Jeb! Bush holds a rally in New York City

George Pataki: 5. Pataki, even if he leans towards Jeb!, is uncommitted when speaking with him, refusing to give out his endorsement just yet.

 

New York City: 6. The rally goes reasonably well, with solid turnout and a successful performance by Bush.

 

Overall + Endorsement Roll: +2. Jeb! doesn't do spectacularly this turn, though his campaign chugs along with minor momentum and the New York LCR alliance coming into effect somewhat successfully.

7 hours ago, Fbarbarossa said:

Trump will rally on trade and immigration in Wisconsin

Trump will attempt to get the endorsement of Rudy Giuliani

Trump will float over to Wyoming

Wisconsin: 7. Trump's rally goes well, with strong turnout and an energetic crowd.

 

Rudy Giuliani: 7. Rudy backs Trump, though many commentators note this is a shift from Giuliani's previously moderate public profile.

 

Wyoming: 5. Trump fails to impress anyone in Wyoming, though he doesn't hurt his already depressing standing in the state.

 

Overall: +4. Trump has a solid week on the campaign trail, though his momentum does come alongside the general success of his fellow candidates.

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FINAL TURN UNTIL WISCONSIN!

DEBATE THIS TURN!

(Note that I'm accounting for statewide swings for the national polling along with the rolls which were all positive)

National GOP Presidential Primary Polling - March 30th, 2016:

Donald Trump: 27%(+1)

 

Ted Cruz: 23%

 

Jeb! Bush: 21%(+1)

 

 Ben Carson: 16%(-1)

 

Lindsey Graham: 13%(-1)

 

 

Wisconsin GOP Presidential Primary Polling - March 30th, 2016:

Lindsey Graham: 28%(+13)

 

Ted Cruz: 28%

 

Donald Trump: 22%(+1)

 

Ben Carson: 12%(-7)

 

Jeb! Bush: 10%(-7)

 

 

Wyoming GOP Presidential Caucus Polling - March 30th, 2016:

Ted Cruz: 53%(-1)

 

Ben Carson: 33%(+13)

 

Donald Trump: 5%(-1)

 

Lindsey Graham: 5%(-6)

 

Jeb! Bush: 4%(-5)

 

 

 New York GOP Presidential Primary Polling - March 30th, 2016: 

Donald Trump: 40%(+2)

 

Jeb! Bush: 37%(+11)

 

Ted Cruz: 12%(+2)

 

Ben Carson: 6%(-8)

 

Lindsey Graham: 5%(-7)

 

 

Edited by The Blood
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Lindsey will campaign in Wisconsin. He meets voters on the ground and has lunch with Ron Johnson and talks about why he should endorse him

Lindsey will meet with Paul Ryan and campaign all through Wisconsin

Lindsey will campaign in rural Wisconsin

Debate:

Graham will attack Cruz and say he's not a true conservative. Graham will appeal to voters in Wisconsin and paint himself as the true Reagan Rpublican in the race.

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  1. Jeb! Bush appears in Milwaukee one last time to campaign for Lindsey Graham. He tells the rest of his supporters who haven't moved to Graham in the state that they need to do this now, and that the Bush campaign will be rewarded later.
  2. Jeb! Bush once again meets with Pataki.
  3. Jeb! Bush barnstorms across Upstate New York, stopping at every State University in the area to meet with Young Republicans.
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1.Ted Cruz will campaign in Wisconsin.

2.Ted Cruz will campaign in Wyoming.

3.Ted Cruz will seek the endorsement of the National Review.

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1. Carson will make an account on various social media pages, even 4chan, to get the right wing nutjobs on social media vote. Carson will talk about how Cruz's father maybe had something to do with JFK... and perhaps JFK Jr. is still out there... who knows? Nevertheless, Carson will target the social media endeavors in Wyoming.

2. Carson will seek the endorsement of Arnold Schwarzenegger. Hoping to boost his chances in California after a few slumps, as he hopes to add to his list of big name endorsers from California. Including Fiorina and Elder. 

3. Carson will hold another rally in Wyoming where he attacks Cruz as a corrupt lying Senator who was no place running for President. Though at least his campaign is still alive unlike Donald Trumps. Who stole the election from us in Arizona, that's right: STOLE. Trump and his racist poll watchers couldn't stand the sight of a black Republican winning the great state of Arizona. So they TOOK it from us. Fuck Trump. Fuck Cruz. Damn crackas.

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35 minutes ago, Fbarbarossa said:

Trump will endorse Jeb in NY, to put a stop to Carson who will carve up our country like a surgeon and sell it to China

Trump will hit Wisconsin twice to campaign hard and drum up support

Carson, angered... will comment on the move and say Trump is now blatantly rigging the primary against black Republicans. He says. "That traitor Jeb Bush ain't a fellow cracka no more. He just the same as all the whities."

Carson vows to fight on for the cause of Good against a great satanic evil taking over the GOP.

Edited by Pringles
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1 hour ago, Fbarbarossa said:

Trump will endorse Jeb in NY, to put a stop to Carson who will carve up our country like a surgeon and sell it to China

Trump will hit Wisconsin twice to campaign hard and drum up support

Trump is throwing the primary wtf

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Republican Debate Results:

Meeting in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, the Republican candidates for President once again engaged in heated verbal sparring on the debate stage. This debate was noted for the fact that every candidate suffered a poor night, with Sean Hannity questioning if the GOP candidates were "trying to elect Hillary" with their weak performances. Regardless, some candidates did perform less badly than others, and the traditional drama of the debate stage was maintained as the candidates clobbered one another as per usual. Here is how the night went.

 

Ted Cruz(1,6,7): -2. Ted Cruz, while not doing well by any means, beat out the competition on the debate stage, delivering a somewhat poor though survivable performance. He would start off with a major gaffe, saying that he will "help the brave Al-Queda terrorists who have fought in Afghanistan" as President. Ted of course meant to say "brave veterans who have fought in Afghanistan", yet somehow his brain misfired, with the gaffe being a major blunder.  Despite this opening stumble, Cruz would steadily improve as the night went on, recovering with a somewhat successful appeal to voters in all three contests coming up and a modestly damaging hit against Lindsey Graham as an "establishment member" and part of the "Washington Cartel" that is the LCR. While his opening disaster would drag his performance down, Ted ended up scraping by, landing on top of the field with a harmful, though not especially damaging, debate performance.

 

Lindsey Graham(3,9,2): -3. Lindsey Graham experienced a poor debate night, though he did not suffer the worst of the night and actually scored near the top of the field in what was a gloomy night for every candidate. He would start off by failing to attack Ted Cruz, claiming Ted's not a "true conservative" in what many voters considered to be a laughable jab at the premier evangelical candidate of the race. Lindsey would bounce back, however, with a fiery and passionate appeal to the voters of Wisconsin, helping his campaign in the state. Graham would close by calling himself a "Ronald Republican", failing to specify he meant Ronald Reagan in a moment which left many voters confused. With that, and with Ted Cruz attacking him as a part of the establishment cartel, Lindsey would close the night with a poor, though not fatal, performance.

 

Donald Trump(5,10,1): -3. With an overall performance matching Lindsey Graham's, Donald Trump had a rollercoaster of a debate, closing with a poor, though not horrendous, night. He would start off with mediocrity, calling himself the "unity candidate" in a bizarre though quickly forgotten opening statement. Trump would then explode with rage, tearing into Ben Carson for his "racism" saying, "Ben Carson hates me because I'm black! You just know it!" The crowd would begin booing Carson, cheering on Trump as a champion of antiracist action. Trump would then immediately blunder, saying, "If you're undecided, go fuck yourself. Wait, I mean, uhhhh, vote for me." in a strange and damaging moment for the candidate. With Ben Carson punching back at him with a successful attack, Trump would end the debate with a performance which would place him among the losers for a normal debate night, but which for this night ranks well-enough.

 

Ben Carson(5,8,2): -5. Mediocre on his own and brought down by a knockout attack from Donald Trump, Ben Carson ended the night with a damaging performance, even with its effect dulled by the universally poor results for the candidates on stage. Carson would begin with a strange opening statement, calling on Republicans to "stop the steal" by Donald Trump and Ted Cruz, and promising to "win the Black vote" as the nominee. While this fired up his base, for every Carson supporter now motivated to vote, a moderate or establishment voter was turned away, leaving Carson with a net-neutral result from his opener. Ben would then attack Donald Trump, calling him a "fake Christian" and inferring he's involved in a Satanic ritual over his comments about having sex with his daughter if she was not his child, doing sufficient damage to the Donald. However, Carson would then take two significant blows. The first would come with Ben appealing to evangelicals and Christians by saying, "We must praise God, and the Savior Christ created by the Father.", endorsing Arianism in a moment which reopened a 1,700-year-old theological debate all across America and offended many voters. The second blow would come as Donald Trump revealed Carson for the anti-Black racist he is, dealing a major blow to Ben's campaign and making Carson's performance the second-worst of the night.

 

Jeb! Bush(3,2,1): -10. In a debate where things went wrong for every candidate, Jeb! Bush still stands out for his particularly horrible performance. He would start off by slowly stating his intentions to "be there for every American" as President. Almost whispering, Jeb! would describe how he'll "talk to you every night. Always be looking out for you. Looking at you. Like Santa Claus, I'll always, always have my eye on you. I'll choose what's right for you, and what's right for me. You would like that, wouldn't you, America?" After that, Bush would transition to saying Ted Cruz is not a "strong man". Cruz, taking the statement literally, would challenge Bush to arm wrestle on the debate stage. Jeb! would accept, only to have him arm be put down in less than a second, spraining his wrist because of Cruz's strength. To close, Bush would fall on his face appealing to New York, saying, "I love New York. It has amazing cities, like Boston, and San Francisco. It has such amazing historical figures, like Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan. I know a lot about New York, as you can see, and I hope New Yorkers will vote for me in their primary." Overall, a miserable night.

 

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On 6/16/2022 at 1:50 PM, Kitten said:

Lindsey will campaign in Wisconsin. He meets voters on the ground and has lunch with Ron Johnson and talks about why he should endorse him

Lindsey will meet with Paul Ryan and campaign all through Wisconsin

Lindsey will campaign in rural Wisconsin

Ron Johnson: 1! Ron Johnson will become enraged by Graham's appeals, throwing his sandwich at Lindsey and telling Wisconsinites to "stop Graham" at the ballot box.

 

Paul Ryan: 10! The meeting goes fabulously, with Paul Ryan endorsing Graham and the two having a blast on the campaign trail.

 

Wisconsin: 1! Graham will have a pie thrown in his face by an angry Ted Cruz supporter at one event, followed by a hail of tomatoes forcing him to retreat from the venue. 

 

Overall + Debate: -8. With a poor debate performance and a rollercoaster on the campaign trail damaging his campaign, Lindsey Graham struggles as the critical Wisconsin primary arrives.

On 6/16/2022 at 2:23 PM, Rezi said:
  1. Jeb! Bush appears in Milwaukee one last time to campaign for Lindsey Graham. He tells the rest of his supporters who haven't moved to Graham in the state that they need to do this now, and that the Bush campaign will be rewarded later.
  2. Jeb! Bush once again meets with Pataki.
  3. Jeb! Bush barnstorms across Upstate New York, stopping at every State University in the area to meet with Young Republicans.

Wisconsin: 3. Most Wisconsinites who are sticking by Jeb! are still unconvinced to support Graham, though a few will finally give in to back Lindsey. *

 

Pataki: 10! Pataki finally endorses, giving Jeb! a substantive boost in New York.

 

New York: 3. Few Young Republicans show for Jeb!'s events, with a general sense of unenthusiasm hanging over his time upstate.

 

Overall + Debate: -9. With a truly horrible debate performance, Jeb!'s minor overall success on the trail fails to save him, with his campaign taking a major hit.

 

*Note that doubling-up on state endorsements is limited in its effect. Most of the voters who refused to budge the first time aren't going to move unless the second endorsement rolls very well, so keep that in mind.

On 6/17/2022 at 12:47 AM, Timur said:

1.Ted Cruz will campaign in Wisconsin.

2.Ted Cruz will campaign in Wyoming.

3.Ted Cruz will seek the endorsement of the National Review.

Wisconsin: 2. Cruz will suffer in Wisconsin, speaking to small crowds and struggling to convince voters to back his campaign.

 

Wyoming: 2. Cruz will suffer similar problems in Wyoming, almost collapsing from dehydration touring the state.

 

National Review: 1! The National Review will opt not to endorse Ted, instead publishing a scathing hit-piece calling Ted a "slimy creature of Washington" with no "morals, values, or genuine conservative beliefs". 

 

Overall + Debate: -13! Despite having the least bad debate performance of any candidate, Ted Cruz's campaign still takes massive damage from his failures on the campaign trail and rejection by the National Review.

On 6/17/2022 at 1:22 AM, Pringles said:

1. Carson will make an account on various social media pages, even 4chan, to get the right wing nutjobs on social media vote. Carson will talk about how Cruz's father maybe had something to do with JFK... and perhaps JFK Jr. is still out there... who knows? Nevertheless, Carson will target the social media endeavors in Wyoming.

2. Carson will seek the endorsement of Arnold Schwarzenegger. Hoping to boost his chances in California after a few slumps, as he hopes to add to his list of big name endorsers from California. Including Fiorina and Elder. 

3. Carson will hold another rally in Wyoming where he attacks Cruz as a corrupt lying Senator who was no place running for President. Though at least his campaign is still alive unlike Donald Trumps. Who stole the election from us in Arizona, that's right: STOLE. Trump and his racist poll watchers couldn't stand the sight of a black Republican winning the great state of Arizona. So they TOOK it from us. Fuck Trump. Fuck Cruz. Damn crackas.

Social Media/Wyoming: 1! Ben Carson will be mocked by even Fox News for his new conspiracy peddling, and Rush Limbaugh will revoke Ben's cracker pass out of "disgust" for this new endeavor. 

 

Schwarzenegger: 3. Arnold says he doesn't plan to endorse Carson, saying Ben's campaign "isn't for me".

 

Wyoming: 10! The rally will be packed with thousands of Wyomingites, with voters cheering for Carson as he exposes the sick voter fraud of Trump. The voters will also cheer for Carson as he once again wheels out "cracka", with Ben joking that he's "reclaimed his pass by acclamation" after Rush Limbaugh revoked his rights to the word earlier in the week.

 

Overall + Debate: -7. Ben Carson struggles this week, with a damaging debate performance and blunders on the trail dragging him down.

On 6/22/2022 at 5:14 PM, Fbarbarossa said:

Trump will endorse Jeb in NY, to put a stop to Carson who will carve up our country like a surgeon and sell it to China

Trump will hit Wisconsin twice to campaign hard and drum up support

Jeb!: 9. The endorsement will go wonderfully?????????? Everyone collectively scratches their head as countless Trump voters change their allegiance to Jeb! in New York.

 

Wisconsin x2: 13/20(9,4). Donald Trump has a fine time in Wisconsin, boosting his campaign in the state and motivating his supporters.

 

Overall + Debate: +4. Despite his poor debate performance, Donald Trump ends up as the most successful candidate of the week, having modest success while his competitors struggle.

Edited by The Blood
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Note that I'm grading on a curve for these results and polls. Dice forced my hand, so the traditional momentum swings will no longer apply here. 

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