Quickshot 2016 - Republican Primary

[The Blood]

On 5/20/2022 at 11:49 PM, Timur said:

1.Ted Cruz will visit Florida and campaign among Cuban Americans.

2.Ted Cruz will seek the endorsement of Gun Owners of America.

3.Ted Cruz will visit Missouri and campaign in the rural regions.

Florida: 2. Cuban Americans seem to reject Ted, viewing him as untrustworthy, and Ted doesn't help his image as he makes several gaffes he has to walk back while in Florida.

 

Gun Owners of America: 4. Gun Owners of America isn't excited by Cruz's attempt to receive their endorsement, stating that they aren't prepared to endorse his campaign at this time.

 

Missouri: 9. Cruz does well in Missouri, reaching out to rural voters and proving himself to be a powerful retail campaigner in the state.

 

Overall + Debate: +2. Despite a mixed bag on the campaign trail, Cruz's campaign chugs along with modest momentum, aided by Ted's somewhat successful debate performance.

 

On 5/21/2022 at 12:16 AM, Rezi said:

1. Jeb! repeats similar messages to his voters, asking Jebedians in Missouri and North Carolina to vote for Ben Carson @Pringles
2. Jeb! and Marco Rubio take the stage in halls across Florida, getting out the vote for Jebediah with one simple message. "Please vote".
3. Jeb! and Governor Kasich meet with voters across Ohio in the final week, convincing all sorts of voters to support the Jeb campaign.

Ben Carson: 6. The message is less well-received this time, with a significant portion of Jeb! voters pledging to stand by their candidate irrespective of his wishes, though a large portion do move to support Carson.

 

Florida: 4. Floridians don't seem inspired by Jeb! and Marco's outreach, with some commenting that Jeb! feels desperate pleading for their turnout. 

 

Ohio: 2. Jeb! runs into even more trouble in Ohio, with Kasich missing multiple events and Jeb! being visibly exhausted on the trail, barely able to give his stump speech before cutting his events short.

 

Overall + Debate: +3. Despite a rocky time on the campaign trail, Jeb! pushes forward with a fair amount of momentum, buoyed by his strong debate performance.

On 5/21/2022 at 1:13 AM, Pringles said:

1. Carson will send out more tweets and robo calls to the Carson gang in key states. Telling them, "Look, we got Mississippi. And I'm now the 2nd place in the race baby, the pollsters don't want to admit it but it's true. Cruz and Trump are falling hard. But we gotta keep them in free fall. That's why I want the gang to vote for Jeb Bush in Florida, and Ohio. Do me proud! Ben signing off." @Rezi

2. Carson heads to Illinois. Touring Chicago and it's suburbs. Talking about his upbringing as a poor African American, and becoming internationally renowned for his medical achievements. He says that he wants to do something "for real," concerning African Americans in the nation, and that just because Obama was the first Black POTUS doesn't mean things got any better. 

3. Ben Carson heads out to California. Hoping to make some early ground in the state, even with the Fiorina endorsement. Carson would seek the endorsement of Larry Elder. After hugging it out with Rush Limbaugh, Ben hopes to get an easier endorsement this time... as fellow black conservatives gotta stick together against the crackas.

Jeb! Bush: 6. Similar to Jeb!'s semi-endorsement, Carson's appeal to his voters in Florida and Ohio goes modestly well, though there is a contingent of loyal Carsonites who remain committed to Ben.

 

Illinois: 6. Ben's time in Illinois goes well, with some African Americans expressing support for a GOP Presidential candidate for the first time in their lives.

 

Larry Elder: 7. Elder endorses, providing a boost to Carson in California as his campaign takes an early detour to what may be a crucial state down the line.

 

Overall + Debate: -6. Carson, despite a deeply damaging debate performance, shields some of the blow with modest success on the campaign trail, leaving his campaign still standing even as it limps into Super Tuesday II.

On 5/21/2022 at 1:51 PM, Kitten said:

Graham will campaign in North Carolina where he'll get to hang out with Senators Richard Burr and Thom Tillis. They'll be having lunch together. Town hall meeting afterwards.

Graham is gonna go visit Senator Mark Kirk in Illinois. They'll go out to eat some hot dogs in the windy city. Then he'll hold a rally.

Graham is gonna hang out in Florida. He'll get some sun and hang out with Ron DeSantis and Rick Scott. They'll eat some Cuban food. Lindsay will meet voters.

North Carolina: 7. While they won't endorse, both Senators will give a kind word for Graham, and the townhall afterwards will go pleasantly.

 

Illinois: 3. The hotdogs have a strange rancid taste, and the following rally will have depressed turnout.

 

Florida: 3. Graham will use some bad Spanish while ordering his food, and voters seem uninterested in his campaign.

 

Overall + Debate: +2. Despite struggling some on the campaign trail, Graham and his campaign mosey along, with his successful debate performance providing a needed lift to his momentum.

8 hours ago, Fbarbarossa said:

Trump will rile up crowds in Florida

Trump will roll into Illinois and rally on NAFTA

Trump will continue to talk NAFTA in Ohio

Florida: 7. Donald does indeed rile up crowds, strengthening his Florida campaign.

 

Illinois: 6. Donald moves the needle in Illinois, though the rally is nothing special.

 

Ohio: 3. A concerned factory worker will ask Trump what plans he has to truly bring manufacturing back to the Midwest, beyond repealing NAFTA. Donald will then choke on his words, before simply saying, "I'm a businessman, I'll figure it out", in an uninspiring moment for his supporters in the state.

 

Overall + Debate: -5. With a poor debate performance and only minor success on the campaign trail, Donald takes a hit this turn as his campaign continues its struggles.

[The Blood]

Super Tuesday II Turnout Rolls:

 

Ted Cruz: 10!

 

Jeb! Bush: 9.

 

Donald Trump: 6.

 

Lindsay Graham: 6.

 

Ben Carson: 1!

 

@Fbarbarossa @Timur@Pringles @Rezi   @Kitten

[The Blood]

2016 Washington DC. Republican Convention Results:

 

Total Attendees: 2,979

 

Jeb! Bush: 1,889 votes - 63.41% - 19 delegates

 

Ted Cruz: 465 votes - 15.61%

 

Lindsay Graham: 230 votes - 7.72%

 

Donald Trump: 218 votes - 7.32%

 

Ben Carson: 177 votes - 5.94%

 

@Fbarbarossa @Timur@Pringles @Rezi   @Kitten

[The Blood]

2016 North Carolina Republican Primary Results:

 

Total Votes: 1,218,394

 

Ted Cruz: 387,589 votes - 31.81% - 23 delegates

 

Ben Carson: 336,723 votes - 27.64% - 20 delegates

 

Donald Trump: 237,979 votes - 19.53% - 14 delegates

 

Lindsay Graham: 158,208 votes - 12.99% - 9 delegates

 

Jeb! Bush: 97,895 votes - 8.03% - 6 delegates

 

@Fbarbarossa @Timur@Pringles @Rezi   @Kitten

[The Blood]

2016 Florida Republican Primary Results:

 

Total Votes: 2,480,613

 

Jeb! Bush: 887,212 votes - 35.77% - 99 delegates*

 

Donald Trump: 784,519 votes - 31.63%

 

Ted Cruz: 488,298 votes - 19.68%

 

Lindsay Graham: 214,276 votes - 8.64%

 

Ben Carson: 106,308 votes - 4.28%

 

*No Congressional District delegates in Florida, winner gets all 99

 

@Fbarbarossa @Timur@Pringles @Rezi   @Kitten

[The Blood]

I'm going to be afk for a while, but results will resume tonight.

[The Blood]

2016 Ohio Republican Primary Results:

 

Total Votes: 2,088,406

 

Jeb! Bush: 673,302 votes - 32.24% - 66 delegates*

 

Ted Cruz: 576,818 votes - 27.62%

 

Donald Trump: 450,260 votes - 21.56%

 

Lindsay Graham: 238,496 votes - 11.42%

 

Ben Carson: 149,530 votes - 7.16%

 

*Same rules as in Florida, statewide winner takes all delegates

 

@Fbarbarossa @Timur@Pringles @Rezi   @Kitten

Edited May 29, 2022 by The Blood

[The Blood]

2016 Illinois Republican Primary Results:

 

Total Votes: 1,536,731

 

Ted Cruz: 460,405 votes - 29.96% - 46 delegates

 

Donald Trump: 328,553 votes - 21.38% - 9 delegates

 

Jeb! Bush: 300,738 votes - 19.57% - 14 delegates

 

Ben Carson: 296,436 votes - 19.29%

 

Lindsay Graham: 150,599 votes - 9.80%

 

(Note: Illinois has a weird delegate allocation system. In each Congressional District voters elect delegates directly, so Trump massively underperforming from IRL means Bush's localized support in certain CDs gives him a delegate lead over him. It's weird, but these are the results.)

 

@Fbarbarossa @Timur@Pringles @Rezi   @Kitten

Edited May 29, 2022 by The Blood

[The Blood]

2016 Missouri Republican Primary Results:

 

Total Votes: 995,625

 

Ted Cruz: 354,742 votes - 35.63% - 47 delegates

 

Ben Carson: 286,541 votes - 28.78% - 5 delegates

 

Donald Trump: 193,748 votes - 19.46%

 

Lindsay Graham: 94,684 votes - 9.51%

 

Jeb! Bush: 65,910 votes - 6.62%

 

@Fbarbarossa @Timur@Pringles @Rezi   @Kitten

[The Blood]

2016 Northern Mariana Islands Republican Caucus Results:

 

Total Caucusgoers: 499

 

Donald Trump: 274 votes - 54.91% - 9 delegates

 

Ted Cruz: 136 votes - 27.26%

 

Ben Carson: 35 votes - 7.01%

 

Jeb! Bush: 32 votes - 6.41%

 

Lindsay Graham: 22 votes - 4.41%

 

@Fbarbarossa @Timur@Pringles @Rezi   @Kitten

[The Blood]

There will be no Guam results, as IRL there was no Presidential preference vote in Guam, they simply choose 9 unpledged delegates at the Guam caucus, and those delegates will be available for candidates to appeal to if we reach a contested convention.

[The Blood]

Same thing in the US Virgin Islands. Uncommitted won in a landslide, and while there was some territory party drama after that, in this RP we're just going to have another 9 unpledged delegates from the US Virgin Islands available for candidate appeals before and during the convention.

[The Blood]

Republican State of the Race - March 16th, 2016

Total Votes: 21,484,321 votes

Delegates needed to win: 1,237

 

Ted Cruz: 5,950,443 votes - 27.70% - 544 delegates - 43.98% towards majority

 

Donald Trump: 5,407,018 votes - 25.17% - 360 delegates - 29.10% towards majority

 

Jeb! Bush: 3,590,788 votes - 16.71% - 306 delegates - 24.74% towards majority

 

Ben Carson: 3,560,500 votes - 16.57% - 180 delegates - 14.55% towards majority

 

Lindsay Graham: 2,001,428 votes - 9.32% - 27 delegates - 2.18% towards majority

 

Carly Fiorina(suspended): 926,213 votes - 4.31% - 21 delegates - 1.70% towards majority

 

Chris Christie(suspended): 47,831 votes - 0.22% - 4 delegates - 0.32% towards majority

 

 

@Fbarbarossa @Timur@Pringles @Rezi   @Kitten

 

Edited May 29, 2022 by The Blood

[The Blood]

FINAL TURN BEFORE ARIZONA AND UTAH!

 

National GOP Presidential Primary Polling - March 16th, 2016:

Ted Cruz: 28%(+2)

 

Jeb! Bush: 22%(+4)

 

Donald Trump: 21%(-3)

 

 Ben Carson: 18%(-4)

 

Lindsay Graham: 11%(+1)

 

 

Arizona GOP Presidential Primary Polling - March 16th, 2016:

Ted Cruz: 28%

 

Donald Trump: 23%

 

Ben Carson: 20%

 

Jeb! Bush: 18%

 

Lindsay Graham: 11%

 

 

Utah GOP Presidential Caucus Polling - March 16th, 2016:

Ted Cruz: 48%

 

Ben Carson: 19%

 

Jeb! Bush: 17%

 

Lindsay Graham: 9%

 

Donald Trump: 7%

 

There is a debate this turn, so make sure to send in your usual actions!

@Fbarbarossa @Timur@Pringles @Rezi    @Kitten

[Timur]

19 hours ago, The Blood said:

Jeb! would then call himself a "real Florida guy" in a mediocre appeal to the voters of his home state, failing to move the needle.

No wonder his campaign is crazy. Florida Man strikes again.

[Timur]

1.Ted will visit Arizona and talk about border security, noting that he's from Texas and knows the border situation well.

2.Ted will visit Utah and try to solidify his lead, hoping to get a majority if possible.

3.Ted will seek the endorsement of Mike Lee.

Edited May 29, 2022 by Timur

[Kitten]

Lindsey will go to Yuma AZ and meet Senator Jeff Flake where they'll both go and eat at Mr. G's. Then they'll visit the border and meet voters afterwards including one from Lindsey's Discord server named kitten 😛

Lindsey will campaign with John McCain in Maricopa County and appeal to voters.

Lindsey will ask for the endorsement of Jan Brewer and campaign all over AZ in hopes of a strong performance.

Debate

Lindsey will appeal to undecided Republicans, saying he's the true republican who'll gut Obamacare and protect the border. Lindsey will attack Ted Cruz, who he calls the devil of the Senate. To close, Lindsey will remind primary voters that a vote for him is a vote for security and tax cuts and the eradication of cancer.

[The Blood]

@Fbarbarossa @Pringles @Rezi  

[Rezi]

1. Jeb bush endorses Ben Carson in Arizona @Pringles, @Jeb!
2. Jeb Bush rallies in New York 2x

[Pringles]

1. Ben Carson endorses fellow cracka Jeb Bush in Utah. @Rezi

2. Ben, Larry Elder, and Rush Limbaugh hit the streets of California and talk to the people. Carson talks about how despite a fumble he's still the best conservative outsider to win the nomination. He hammers Trump as having a dead campaign, and Cruz being a damn cracka. 2x

 

[Fbarbarossa]

Trump will hit Arizona and hold a rally to fire up the people.

Donald will seek establishment support, Former Speaker Newt Gingrich

And to further his establishment backing, former VP Nominee Sarah Palin

[The Blood]

Republican Debate:

Facing off in Salt Lake City, Utah, the Republican candidates for President once again met on the debate stage, confronting one another with a taste for the blood of one particular candidate. While Arizona and Utah aren't primaries generally considered to be of great importance, this debate is sure to affect the campaign in those two states and across the country. Here is how the night went.

 

Lindsey Graham(9,7,10): +11! Considered to be the clear winner of the debate, Senator Lindsey Graham gave a successful answer and soundbite every time he opened his mouth on stage. He would start off with a fiery appeal to undecided Republicans, promising to end Obamacare and defend America's border security in a successful play for the late-deciders of the primary race. Lindsey would then take his aim on Ted Cruz, attacking Ted as the "Devil of the Senate" in a successful though very aggressive attack. Graham would close stunningly, inciting a minute long wave of cheering and clapping from the audience as he promised to defend national security, cut taxes, and eradicate cancer as President. Overall, a great night.

 

Donald Trump(8,9,5): +7. Delivering a strong night on the debate stage, Donald Trump strengthened his flagging campaign with a confident and successful performance. He would start off with a strong message to voters, bringing them to his side with a simple, "Idiots, vote for me." Donald would then deliver a deeply damaging attack against Ted Cruz, calling him "Lyin' Ted" and asking voters "Really?" in response to their support for Cruz as the frontrunner. Trump would close with a surprisingly mediocre appeal to those not yet in his base, ending his night of success with timid and ineffective voter outreach. Overall, a successful night for the Donald.

 

Ben Carson(5,7,6): +3. Ben Carson did not win the debate. He didn't even come close, but he did deliver a performance which, though not spectacular, will give his campaign needed momentum moving forward. He would start off with an aggressive, Culture War focused opening attacking the Democrats and asking Donald Trump to drop out. While it did appeal to some populist conservatives, many moderate and establishment voters were turned off by the display. Carson would improve, however, hitting "Cracka' Cruz" with a successful attack before closing with a somewhat successful appeal to Californians and Larry Elder fans, reaching out to voters farther down in the voting schedule in a foresightful decision from the Carson campaign. Overall, a successful night, though it won't send Carson flying up in the polls.

 

Jeb! Bush(1,7,4): -4. Jeb! Bush struggled this debate night, failing to deliver a successful performance as his campaign takes a noticeable, though not disastrous, hit. He would start off absolutely embarrassing himself, declaring on national TV that, "I be do-good man. I no-nonsense. I do-good man." Ted Cruz would even reach out to ask Jeb! if he was having a stroke, with the absurdly strange opening leaving voters dazed. Despite this, Jeb! would immediately improve, attacking Ted Cruz as a "bad, bad man" to fair success, turning voters against Cruz. However, with a mildly cringy use of a New York accent while appealing to voters in the state, Jeb! would close the night with a poor performance.

 

Ted Cruz(4,3,2): -16. Ted Cruz, having amassed a fair delegate lead and slowly rebounding in the polls, became an easy target on the debate stage, falling prey to his own failures and the attacks of his fellow candidates. He would start off promising to be "strong on foreign policy" while refusing to give specifics, describing his "vision for America" while leaving that vision blurry for the Americans watching at home. He would then attempt to appeal to foreign policy hawks, declaring that we will "go back to Vietnam" in a strange and what many considered dangerous debate moment. To close, Cruz would attack Jeb! Bush, taking aim at Bush only for the attack to fail, with Bush quickly disarming Ted and firing back at him over his "dangerous extremism" and "losing General Election strategy". With successful attacks from literally every other candidate, this night was a horrible, horrible one for Ted.

 

@Fbarbarossa @Timur@Pringles @Rezi    @Kitten

Edited June 7, 2022 by The Blood

[The Blood]

On 5/29/2022 at 10:32 AM, Timur said:

1.Ted will visit Arizona and talk about border security, noting that he's from Texas and knows the border situation well.

2.Ted will visit Utah and try to solidify his lead, hoping to get a majority if possible.

3.Ted will seek the endorsement of Mike Lee.

Arizona: 4. Arizonans seem cold to Ted, with many doubting his ability to handle the border crisis over a more aggressive candidate like Trump.

 

Utah: 2. Cruz struggles in Utah, campaigning to desolate venues and unconvinced voters, with many once committed Cruz supporters turned away from the campaign meeting him in person. 

 

Mike Lee: 1! Mike Lee will not only refuse to endorse Cruz, but he will also lambast him on Fox News, calling Ted a "slimy liar" who is "unfit for office and the Republican nomination". 

 

Overall + Debate: -25! The Cruz campaign completely collapses amid a disastrous debate and repeated blunders on the campaign trial. This amazing display of failure throws Cruz's campaign into crisis as Arizona and Utah arrive.

On 5/29/2022 at 2:53 PM, Kitten said:

Lindsey will go to Yuma AZ and meet Senator Jeff Flake where they'll both go and eat at Mr. G's. Then they'll visit the border and meet voters afterwards including one from Lindsey's Discord server named kitten 😛

Lindsey will campaign with John McCain in Maricopa County and appeal to voters.

Lindsey will ask for the endorsement of Jan Brewer and campaign all over AZ in hopes of a strong performance.

Jeff Flake: 6. Mr. G's tastes well enough, and while Senator Flake only gives a nice word for Graham to the media, their time together in Arizona goes well, with Kitten most appreciative being able to meet Lindsey.

 

John McCain: 9. McCain endorses, with him and Graham having a blast bringing voters to the cause in Maricopa. 

 

Jan Brewer: 5. Brewer won't endorse, and Graham's dash across Arizona finally seems to lose its energy.

 

Overall + Debate: +16! Lindsey surges with a winning debate performance, a major endorsement from John McCain, and an Arizona campaign quickly picking up steam ahead of the primary.

On 6/3/2022 at 8:48 PM, Rezi said:

1. Jeb bush endorses Ben Carson in Arizona @Pringles, @Jeb!
2. Jeb Bush rallies in New York 2x

Ben Carson: 4. A fair portion of Jeb!'s supporters remain committed to him, refusing to back the more populist and conservative Carson, though many heed the words of their candidate and prepare to back Ben ahead of the primary.

 

New York(4,4): 8/20. Jeb! has a rather mediocre time in New York, with voters seeming uninspired by his campaign.

 

Overall + Debate: -7. With a poor debate performance and moderate struggles on the trial, Jeb!'s campaign falters after its previous surge of strength. 

On 6/5/2022 at 3:07 PM, Pringles said:

1. Ben Carson endorses fellow cracka Jeb Bush in Utah. @Rezi

2. Ben, Larry Elder, and Rush Limbaugh hit the streets of California and talk to the people. Carson talks about how despite a fumble he's still the best conservative outsider to win the nomination. He hammers Trump as having a dead campaign, and Cruz being a damn cracka. 2x

 

Jeb! Bush: 7. The majority of Carson's supporters fall in line with Jeb!, with only a fairly small portion refusing to step away from their candidate.

 

California(1,2): 3/20. While campaigning in southern California, Carson will be pied by someone claiming to be an "antiracist" fighting against the use of the "horrible C-word", and his time in California is overall miserable, as voters dash from his campaign in the state.

 

Overall + Debate: -3. Despite major blunders in California, Carson limps along with an only somewhat damaging week, with his modest success on the debate stage proving to be important in mitigating the damage.

4 hours ago, Fbarbarossa said:

Trump will hit Arizona and hold a rally to fire up the people.

Donald will seek establishment support, Former Speaker Newt Gingrich

And to further his establishment backing, former VP Nominee Sarah Palin

Arizona: 10! Trump speaks to a massive crowd in Arizona, grabbing national headlines with his stunning display of support in the state.

 

Newt Gingrich: 8. Gingrich endorses, giving a fair boost to Trump and showing certain party leaders are ready to fall in line.

 

Sarah Palin: 9. Palin endorses, giving a fiery call to arms for Republicans to unite around Donald.

 

Overall + Debate: 19! Trump surges as his campaign sees a massive rush of momentum, both from success on the trail and on the debate stage.

[The Blood]

Arizona & Utah Turnout Rolls:

 

Ben Carson: 8.

 

Lindsey Graham: 8.

 

Ted Cruz: 7.

 

Jeb! Bush: 4.

 

Donald Trump: 1!

 

@Fbarbarossa @Timur@Pringles @Rezi   @Kitten

[The Blood]

2016 Arizona Republican Primary Results: 

 

Total Votes: 636,518

 

Donald Trump: 167,914 votes - 26.38% - 58 delegates*

 

Ben Carson: 167,203 votes - 26.27%

 

Lindsey Graham: 127,441 votes - 20.02%

 

Ted Cruz: 125,585 votes - 19.73%

 

Jeb! Bush: 48,375 votes - 7.60%

 

*Arizona is complete WTA

 

@Fbarbarossa @Timur@Pringles @Rezi   @Kitten