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1968-Present RP by Dobs: The Return of the Doblets


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Poll [Republican Voters]

1. Is the death penalty an appropriate punishment for severe crimes?

Yes

Yes, with some exceptions

Unsure

No, with some exceptions

No

2. Does a woman have a right to choose to have an abortion?

Yes

Yes, with some exceptions

Unsure

No, with some exceptions

No

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Humphrey will meet with party bosses to try to gain support for his candidacy at the convention. 

Humphrey will do the above again, but target moderates who are alienated by Wallace's extremist past. 

Finally, Humphrey will hold a rally in California, reminding the state that a vote for Yorty is a vote for Wallace who has yet to denounce his segregationist views. 

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1. Wallace will tour Arkansas, hitting the state hard as he goes on for hours and hours about states' rights and the need for a conservative government. (Rally)

 

2. Wallace will, well, begin talking with the party bosses of the Democratic Party. Seeing Humphrey's mixed history with the group, he sees an opportunity to gather strength among Midwestern, Southern, and moderate leaders in the party who may be open to accepting the possibility of a Wallace nomination. (Influence)

 

3. Wallace will hit New Jersey, of all places, hoping to close the gap between him and Humphrey despite recent events. (Rally)

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3 hours ago, Cal said:

Humphrey will meet with party bosses to try to gain support for his candidacy at the convention. 

Humphrey will do the above again, but target moderates who are alienated by Wallace's extremist past. 

Finally, Humphrey will hold a rally in California, reminding the state that a vote for Yorty is a vote for Wallace who has yet to denounce his segregationist views. 

Influence (8): Humphrey does very well with the party bosses.

Influence (9): Humphrey recoups some of the lost support among moderates to Wallace. He is putting up one hell of a fight for the center.

Rally (4): The attack lands on Wallace, but most Californians are able to look past that and instead focus on the popular Yorty.

Overall: +6. Humphrey's strong campaign turn helps blunt the negative momentum of his successive losses.

1 hour ago, The Blood said:

1. Wallace will tour Arkansas, hitting the state hard as he goes on for hours and hours about states' rights and the need for a conservative government. (Rally)

 

2. Wallace will, well, begin talking with the party bosses of the Democratic Party. Seeing Humphrey's mixed history with the group, he sees an opportunity to gather strength among Midwestern, Southern, and moderate leaders in the party who may be open to accepting the possibility of a Wallace nomination. (Influence)

 

3. Wallace will hit New Jersey, of all places, hoping to close the gap between him and Humphrey despite recent events. (Rally)

Rally (5): An unusually bland rally for Wallace.

Influence (5): Lightning does not strike twice as Wallace only barely moves the needle.

Rally (7): A surprisingly strong rally for Wallace in the Garden state, though it doesn't strike a fire.

Overall: +2. Wallace has a dull turn on the campaign trail that doesn't quite keep up with his rapid growth as of late.

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New Mexico Democratic Primary - June 6th, 1972

153,278 votes -- 24 delegates

George Wallace - 104,995 votes (68.5%) 16 delegates

Hubert Humphrey - 48,283 votes (31.5%) 8 delegates

The Wallace campaign was out in full force in the New Mexico primary for a tour de force of strength in the Land of Enchantment. The showing bodes well for Wallace looking to harness the conservative movement for wins in the west as he scores a large won in New Mexico (9). Humphrey, meanwhile, devoting all his resources to California and New Jersey, saw his floor fall out from under him and finish second in a landslide from extremely poor turnout of liberals and the state's small but growing non-white contigent. (1!).

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Arkansas Democratic Primary - June 6th, 1972

592,200 votes -- 27 delegates

George Wallace - 481,459 votes (81.3%) 22 delegates

Hubert Humphrey - 110,741 votes (18.7%) 5 delegates

The Wallace campaign expected to win Arkansas and win they would on a relatively barebones and simple campaign (4). Humphrey, however, did experience a bit of a surge in the final moments of the campaign, netting his best performance in the Deep South off the back of upped urban turnout in Little Rock swinging the city in moderately in his direction (8).

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New Jersey Democratic Primary - June 6th, 1972

312,769 votes -- 110 delegates

Hubert Humphrey - 168,270 votes (53.8%) 59 delegates

George Wallace - 144,499 votes (46.2%) 51 delegates

New Jersey was a closer race than many would have predicted at the start of the race. Still, Humphrey was able to hold this northern state against national leader Wallace in a decent margin, really securing victory in the final hours of the campaign with impressive campaign infrastructure and support from the Governor (7). The Wallace campaign, on the other hand, seemed to be a thrown together afterthought once it was realized New Jersey was in reach, this reach never materialized into a win but 51 delegates is not nothing (3).

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California Democratic Primary - June 6th, 1972

5,412,491 votes -- 271 delegates

Sam Yorty - 3,025,582 votes (55.9%) 271 delegates

Hubert Humphrey - 2,386,909 votes (44.1%)

California was an electric end to the campaign! Senator Sam Yorty would take the Wallace torch and run an energetic and emphatically conservative campaign, appealing to rural, suburban, and working class voters, and he would turn out that same coalition of conservative voters that sent him to the Senate (9). Humphrey, meanwhile, would run with the liberal base the Bay Area as well as other urban areas outside Yorty's native LA, he would turn them out in kind (9). In, the end, however, this high-octane primary would result in massive turnout and a victory for the favorite son whose institutional strength was simply too great to overcome. On the one hand, Yorty is almost certain to deliver his 271 delegates for Wallace this August due to the slate of delegates being the same, but Humphrey can certainly take solace in the fact that this means the popular vote gap between he and George Wallace has been significantly narrowed.

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These were the final primaries of the 1972 season. They have not decided upon a Democratic nominee. Instead, it will be up to the state nominating conventions to do that. Stand by for the opening of these summer conventions in the next post.

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Oklahoma's 3rd District Special Congressional Election

108,690 votes

Wes Watkins (D) - 91,626 votes (84.3%)

Gerald Beasley - (R) 17,064 votes (15.7%)

D Hold

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Oklahoma's 6th District Special Congressional Election

99,384 votes

Glenn English (D) - 67,879 votes (68.3%)

Carol McCurley (R) - 31,505 votes (31.7%)

D Pick-Up

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California's 11th District Special Election

Robert R. Barry (R) vs. Robert E. Gomperts (D)

Idaho's 2nd District Special Election

Mary Adams (R) vs. Marden E. Wells (D)

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(Stand by for Opening of Summer Nominating Conventions)

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State of the 1972 Democratic Presidential Primary - June 7th, 1972

20,937,728 votes - 3,013 delegates (1,507 to win)

George Wallace - 8,206,425 votes (39.19%) 993 delegates

Hubert Humphrey - 6,359,014 votes (30.37%) 529 delegates

Sam Yorty - 3,025,582 votes (14.45%) 271 delegates

Stuart Symington - 1,429,722 votes (6.83%) 125 delegates

Bill Clay - 486,544 (2.32%) 30 delegates

Lyndon B. Johnson - 1,430,441 votes (6.83%) 0 delegates

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1972 Democratic State Nominating Conventions - June-July 1972

The Democratic convention is scheduled for July 10th-13th, 1972. This means that there are 5 weeks left between now and the selection of a Democratic nominee. Within those five weeks, all states which did not institute a primary will have state nominating conventions. Once these conventions are over, all Democratic delegates will have been seated. In order to reflect the state of the race, Nominating Conventions will be handled as such. 

There are two major candidates remaining: Hubert Humphrey and George Wallace. The Humphrey and Wallace campaigns will each get 35 points (7 per week) to spend across the non-primary states. These points will boost each candidate's chance of winning a given state convention. Any and all minor candidates who wish to declare from this point forward (i.e. before I roll for the conventions), will be allowed to spend 25 points (5 per week) on these conventions. It will be harder for minor candidates to win support but it could translate into a viable dark horse bid if the convention is deadlocked on the first ballot. 

The mechanics of the conventions, you will notice, is identical to those held in 1968.

This is it, the final piece of the 1972 Democratic primaries. Once the Democrats have their convention, the Republicans will have theirs in August and we'll be off to the races. This mean downballot candidates are drawing ever closer to being due.

As always, happy flavamaking and may the dice be ever in your flava!

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Up Next: State Nominating Conventions

 
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Polling Request

[Approval Poll of republican voters in the state of Indiana]

Earl Landgrebe

Elwood Hillis

Bill Ruckelshaus

Jill Ruckelshaus

Lloyd M. Allen

Harriet Bailey Conn

Richard Lugar

Edgar Whitcomb

William Erwin

David W. Dennis

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Poll Request Among All Bay Staters

Which Candidate Would You Prefer in a Hypothetical Senate Election

Senator Edward Brooke (R)

Mayor of Boston Kevin White (D)

Undecided

 

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Personal Information: Dean Rusk (1909-1994)

Former Secretary of State Dean Rusk announces a convention-focused campaign for President

The former secretary of state is going to launch a wild-card run for President in an attempt to wrest the party away from the various extreme wings. He says that his goal is to end up the nominee, but also to force the party to reckon with its moderate elements and 'old guard'. The secretary staffs up with senior advisors that were important to Johnson's campaign in '64 and other elements of the party. 

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Fred Harris begins to do all he can to whip the Oklahoma delegation to “vote for the future of the Democratic Party!”

Senator Fred Harris as he begins his fight for re-election moves to use his influence in Oklahoma’s Democratic  party, he rebukes Wallace’s “populism of hatred and division” as he pleads with the delegation to vote against Wallace at the convention.

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John Sherman Cooper launches vice presidential convention bid!

750E6E57-93E0-48B6-818A-8B7D8091D87B.thumb.jpeg.b4331225a93a25c770b526c1669e612a.jpeg

John Sherman Cooper meets with Republican Party Bosses to launch a bid for running mate at the Republican National Convention. His campaign focuses on his experience and status as an elder statesman, in contrast to the wild and off-the-cuff statements and actions of Spiro Agnew. Cooper brings up his foreign policy successes, especially with India, to many delegates as one of many reasons he would better serve Nixon’s administration. Cooper reaches out to a number of big name republicans and democrats for endorsements, like former classmate Stuart Symington and close friend Howard Baker for example. Emphasis is placed on Cooper’s ability to garner votes for important bills from both sides of the aisle in the senate, and his skill with foreign policy as ambassador for several years. With recent missteps in China and Cambodia, lord knows Nixon needs a foreign policy expert....

Is Agnew really the guy for that?

 

 

 

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40 minutes ago, Zenobiyl said:

John Sherman Cooper launches vice presidential convention bid!

750E6E57-93E0-48B6-818A-8B7D8091D87B.thumb.jpeg.b4331225a93a25c770b526c1669e612a.jpeg

John Sherman Cooper meets with Republican Party Bosses to launch a bid for running mate at the Republican National Convention. His campaign focuses on his experience and status as an elder statesman, in contrast to the wild and off-the-cuff statements and actions of Spiro Agnew. Cooper brings up his foreign policy successes, especially with India, to many delegates as one of many reasons he would better serve Nixon’s administration. Cooper reaches out to a number of big name republicans and democrats for endorsements, like former classmate Stuart Symington and close friend Howard Baker for example. Emphasis is placed on Cooper’s ability to garner votes for important bills from both sides of the aisle in the senate, and his skill with foreign policy as ambassador for several years. With recent missteps in China and Cambodia, lord knows Nixon needs a foreign policy expert....

Is Agnew really the guy for that?

 

 

 

Prominent Progressive Republicans will hold their tongue on Cooper's VP run. None of them are thrilled to see Agnew become VP for another four years, but they also all know that to go against a popular incumbent would be suicide.

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Michael Harrington, a famous democratic socialist, launches a presidential campaign as the new Progressive standard-bearer. His campaign attacks Nixon and Wallace for being far-right radicals, and promises national healthcare, affirmative action, voting reform, and an end to foreign wars. Harrington does not name a running mate yet, but his considering Ralph Nader or Jesse Jackson.

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Progressives refuse to endorse John Cooper because of his racist statements and racist past. They instead endorse Spiro Agnew, and urge all blacks, progressives, and anti-war activists to back the lesser of two evils.

McCloskey gives a speech endorsing Spiro Agnew from prison:

“Spiro did a lot of good for the left wing cause during his early career in Maryland. He was called a Rockefeller Republican, and I think he earned that nickname. I wish I could run for vice-president, but since I’m in prison we have to make another choice. Agnew is the Mr. Progressive of the Republican Party right now, compared to the racist Cooper. I urge every good republican to back him, so we don’t end up with a right wing radical racist like John Cooper.”

Edited by Mishfox
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15 minutes ago, Mishfox said:

Progressives refuse to endorse John Cooper because of his racist statements and racist past. They instead endorse Spiro Agnew, and urge all blacks, progressives, and anti-war activists to back the lesser of two evils.

McCloskey gives a speech endorsing Spiro Agnew from prison:

“Spiro did a lot of good for the left wing cause during his early career in Maryland. He was called a Rockefeller Republican, and I think he earned that nickname. I wish I could run for vice-president, but since I’m in prison we have to make another choice. Agnew is the Mr. Progressive of the Republican Party right now, compared to the racist Cooper. I urge every good republican to back him, so we don’t end up with a right wing radical racist like John Cooper.”

😐

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Thomas Sowell - Welfare - YouTube

Representative Thomas Sowell (NY-12) launches bid for VP at GOP convention

"It's time for us to make a statement, a statement for all African Americans who have been abandoned by the Democratic Party. I want to be your torch bearer and light of hope in a world largely dominated by darkness. It's not about winning, it's about showing courage and standing up for the people who were neglected for too long. The Republican Party is your home and President Nixon the one you can trust."

 

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Goldwater comments on VP candidates

''As honorable as Mr. Cooper's and Mr. Sowell's intentions might be, I still believe Vice President Agnew should have the chance to serve our nation another four years, because he did an outstanding job in difficult times. Saying that I defer to the eventual convention for which I have the utmost trust, that our delegates will make the right decision eventually.

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14 minutes ago, ConservativeElector2 said:

Goldwater comments on VP candidates

''As honorable as Mr. Cooper's and Mr. Sowell's intentions might be, I still believe Vice President Agnew should have the chance to serve our nation another four years, because he did an outstanding job in difficult times. Saying that I defer to the eventual convention for which I have the utmost trust, that our delegates will make the right decision eventually.

Cooper thanks Senate Majority Leader Goldwater for his magnanimous statements.

”Although I wished for the support of Goldwater, I admire his decision to remain neutral until the convention has chosen a Vice President. In doing so, he has shown admirable impartiality and statesmanly conduct. I also admire the courage of congressman Sowell in breaking boundaries yet again by being the first African american to run for Vice President in the history of the Republican Party!”

“I agree with many of the words said by Senator Goldwater. As a matter of fact I too believe Spiro Agnew deserves a chance to serve as Vice President, but why should he be the only one? Everybody deserves a chance to make their choice, and everybody deserves to have their voice heard. This diversity of thought is what makes the Republican Party work, and that is why I made my decision to enter the running for Vice President.”

Edited by Zenobiyl
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Week 1:
For the first part of the convention, Humphrey and his Brain Trust will spend with the Iowa delegation, a delegation that led by Harold Hughes threw a considerable amount of support behind Senator Kennedy's presidential bid. Representative Gallagher, speaking on Humphrey's behalf, will make the argument that someone like Wallace, who has based his political career on segregation and extreme racial rhetoric, is not fit to represent the will of the Democratic Party. Additionally, Gallagher will seek the support of former Governor Hughes to talk some sense into the delegates. (IA - 7pts)

Week 2:
After having kicked off the convention in earnest, there are more rounds to be made. The Michigan delegation is ripe for the picking for Humphrey, with every representative but one being a progressive or a liberal and already being incredibly receptive to his candidacy. Regardless, Humphrey will talk it over with moderate Democrats and point to Wallace's refusal to support legislation to increase conditions for working class Americans such as OSHA. (MI - 7pts)

Week 3: 
There isn't much of a question of who New York will support, but its good to spend time with your close allies and strategize. The delegation leader Bobby Kennedy and Hubert Humphrey will meet publicly, and Kennedy assures the candidate that he will whip his delegation into shape behind him. After all, there is almost no support for a Southern candidate like Wallace in the urban New York! (NY - 3pts)

The latter half of the week will be spent ensuring that the Connecticut delegation does not waver. Governor Emilio Daddario lends his support and the Humphrey surrogates spend time talking it over with moderates in the delegation. (CT - 4pts)

Week 4: 
Holding down Washington is a necessity. It's not necessarily fertile grounds for Wallace, but every vote counts in a closely contested convention. (WA - 5pts)

Next, some time will be spent trying to wrestle the Tennessee delegation into supporting a candidate who can actually win the general election. Armed with Wallace's poor levels of national support, we hope to convince the moderates in the delegation to lend their support to Humphrey so that the coattails give themselves a boost. (TN - 2pts)

Week 5: 
Some more time is spent making the same argument to the Tennessee delegation. (TN - 7pts)

Week 6: 
Vermont is the stop of the week. Fertile grounds for liberals and progressives, but votes we need to count on. (VT - 4pts)

The second half of the week is spent in Montana, attempting to convince Governor Guy to support Humphrey's candidacy. (MT - 3pts)

Week 7: 
The final week! This week sees visits to two new states. The Idaho delegation should fall in line behind Church, but just in case some time is spent assuring them that Idaho will get their piece of the pie should Humphrey get elected. (ID - 3pts)

The last delegation visited is the Kansas delegation. While they're a more moderate delegation that may be more inclined to support Rusk or Wallace, a visit to the states moderates for an electability argument can't hurt. (KS - 4pts)

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Sec. of State Dean Rusk Weeks' Campaigning

Week 1 - Missouri, Missouri, Kansas, Oregon, Kansas 

Week 2 - Iowa, Iowa, Washington, Oklahoma, Colorado 

Week 3 - Missouri, Colorado, Kansas, Michigan, Colorado

Week 4 - Missouri, Iowa, Oklahoma, Oklahoma, Oregon

Week 5 - Iowa, Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri

Otherwise, by point

Missouri - 6

Oklahoma - 4

Iowa - 4

Kansas - 4

Colorado - 3

Oregon - 2

Michigan - 1

Washington - 1

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